162
FXUS64 KTSA 051730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - An extended period of hot weather will persist through the
   upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

 - Low afternoon rain/storm chances are in the forecast through
   the Labor Day weekend and again late next week. What rain that
   does fall is not likely to reverse recent drought trends.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the
   worsening drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A broad high-amplitude ridge exists aloft over the central part of
the country today, though there is no well-defined ridge center.
With conditions more favorable aloft, CAMs continue to suggest
that the combination of afternoon heat and humidity and elevated
terrain will get some showers and storms going this afternoon. As
we head into Sunday, a back door front will attempt to make a
southwestward push toward our area. Ahead of the front, a plume of
higher PWAT air will be draped across the forecast area and will
support at least spotty afternoon showers and storms. Per CAM data
today, PoPs were expanded across the entire area. Gusty downburst
winds will be the main threat. Rainfall will be spotty and brief
and will likely not impact the drought situation. Coverage of
rain/storms is likely to stay limited this weekend, but still
worth a mention given holiday weekend outdoor activities.

There is a low chance that some storm activity over far eastern KS
into western MO could drop down into the region Sunday night into
Monday morning. Chances are too low to mention at this time, but
it is worth noting.

The Ft Smith airport hit 106 yesterday, and the current forecast
has 105+ degree heat through Sunday in the lower Arkansas River
Valley in west-central Arkansas. As a result, the advisory was
upgraded to a warning there through Sunday. The combination of
heat and humidity warrants maintaining heat advisories elsewhere
through Sunday at least, and likely for days afterward.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The latest RRFS suggests there is potential for some spotty
afternoon showers and storms mainly across the south on Monday
afternoon, again in the deep layer moist plume in the vicinity of
what is left from the back door front. There is more uncertainty
though with upper heights expected to be rising by this time, but
still worth mentioning given outdoor plans folks may have on the
holiday.

Upper heights will continue to rise through the middle of the
week, with Tuesday and Wednesday expected to have headline-worthy
hot and dry weather.

A weak front is expected to drop down into Kansas on Wednesday,
with rain/storm chances returning to the forecast Wednesday night
into Thursday across NE OK and NW AR. The more optimistic GFS
actually brings the likely outflow-reinforced boundary through the
forecast area Thursday while the more pessimistic EC stalls the
boundary near the KS/MO borders. The more aggressive solution
could also bring rain/storm chances and relatively cooler temps
into Friday as was reflected in the latest model blend (NBM)
forecast.

Looking even farther out, solutions vary quite a bit on timing but
a fall cold front is reflected at some point during the latter
half of the month. We just have to get there.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions forecast over the next 24 hours, with light and
variable winds through much of the forecast period. Isolated
showers and storms may develop across parts of western AR into
far E OK this afternoon, but coverage is expected to remain very
low and will not include a mention at specific terminals at this
time. Amendments will be sent if showers or storms approach any
TAF site. Shower activity may linger beyond sunset.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  78 102  79 /   0   0  20  10
FSM  105  77 106  77 /  10  10  20  10
MLC  101  76 103  76 /  10  10  20  10
BVO  102  71 103  72 /   0   0  20  10
FYV  102  72 103  73 /  20  10  20  10
BYV  102  75 102  72 /  20  10  20  20
MKO  102  75 103  75 /  10  10  20  10
MIO  101  75 102  74 /  10  10  20  10
F10  101  75 102  75 /  10  10  20  10
HHW  100  75 100  75 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-
     055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67