Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
381 FXUS64 KTSA 031743 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - Gusty southerly winds and warmer Tuesday with localized fire weather concerns. Overall fire weather threat mitigated by relatively high humidities. - An unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday into the weekend with periods of heavy rainfall and severe weather potential into Saturday. Friday afternoon into Friday night features highest severe weather potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 The warm front has finally lifted north of the area, with strong and gusty southerly winds everywhere except the Arkansas River Valley and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures this morning are already in the upper 60s and lower 70s, even in the presence of plenty of cloudiness, with potential for near record highs expected this afternoon. With afternoon relative humidities still forecast to only drop into the mid and upper 40 percents in a small part of eastern Oklahoma, fire weather concerns today will likely be highly localized despite the continued dry fuels and windy, warm conditions. The front will begin to move back southward mid to late this afternoon and make fairly slow progress through the evening and overnight into northeast Oklahoma. All elements associated with this front have been adjusted more toward the short-term blend, which continues to depict the earlier frontal arrival better than the NBM initialization. A low chance of a late afternoon or evening thunderstorm exists near the front, with better chances early Wednesday morning before daybreak as a mid level disturbance moves through northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and plenty of deep layer shear will support mainly a large hail threat. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, with a continued large hail threat as they shift eastward, eventually into northwest Arkansas. The cold front itself will likely make farther southward progress into eastern Oklahoma, in part aided by the expected thunderstorms in the morning, with the degree of southward progress more in question across western Arkansas and adjacent portions of eastern Oklahoma. Additional development Wednesday afternoon and evening remains expected south of the front with the overall severe weather threat shifting into southeast Oklahoma, northeastward into parts of northwest Arkansas. A low, but mentionable, tornado potential will exist in parts of western Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma late afternoon and evening, largely driven by the lingering frontal boundary. Into Thursday morning, shower and thunderstorm potential will continue to focus near the front in the southeastern half of the forecast area, with a relative, albeit not a total, lull in the activity Thursday afternoon. The front will move back northward late Thursday and into Thursday night, with the better potential for thunderstorms and severe weather focusing across the western portion of the area, nearer the location of the low level jet. A low chance of strong to severe storms with a hail threat Thursday night continues. Friday afternoon and into Friday evening continues to look like the most concerning time frame severe weather wise, with an approaching dryline from the west an a potential upper level system swinging into the Central and Northern Plains. The overall threats will be focused on both large hail and damaging wind. Northeast Oklahoma will be favored for the locally higher supercell and tornado threat given its proximity to the upper support to the north. More linear modes will be favored farther south. The attendant cold front will sweep southward Friday night, leading to an eastward shift in the severe weather potential with time. A low severe weather threat may linger into Saturday morning but should be south and east of the forecast area by Saturday afternoon. A wound up upper low remains expected to linger off the Pacific Coast to our west and southwest for the latter part of the weekend and into early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue at times, as disturbances move through the area ahead of it. Higher chances may develop toward the middle of next week as the low makes a slow approach. Above normal temperatures are likely to continue into next week as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Stubborn low clouds continue across SE OK, but should scatter out through the early afternoon hours. Some MVFR cigs could also creep into far NE OK over the next couple of hours along the stalled frontal boundary, but have left KBVO scattered for now though a brief period of MVFR conditions are possible. VFR conditions will then prevail areawide through the rest of the afternoon into the evening with gusty southerly winds around 25-30 knots for most locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase overnight into tomorrow morning...particularly across NE OK and NW AR along the slowly advancing cold front. Cigs will also lower to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions behind the front, with a low chance for some LIFR conditions in the heaviest showers or storms. Thunderstorm chances with prevailing showers last through a good portion of the morning as the front remains in the vicinity. Winds will become more light and variable overnight, changing to light and northerly behind the front. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 53 58 49 / 10 60 80 60 FSM 80 62 74 58 / 0 20 70 90 MLC 79 62 71 56 / 0 40 80 90 BVO 79 46 57 41 / 20 60 80 40 FYV 77 60 69 54 / 10 50 80 90 BYV 75 61 70 57 / 10 50 90 90 MKO 79 57 66 54 / 0 60 80 90 MIO 78 53 58 48 / 10 60 90 70 F10 80 57 63 54 / 0 60 70 80 HHW 77 63 75 61 / 0 10 50 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...04