135
FXUS64 KTSA 022304
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
604 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
   evening. Severe weather is unlikely, but gusty winds and small
   hail will be possible with stronger storms.

 - Cooler and drier weather tonight through Wednesday.

 - Moisture returns Thursday into late week with daily shower and
   thunderstorm chances returning through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
this afternoon and early evening, mainly along a remnant outflow
boundary across NW AR and far SE OK. Additional convection may
develop in the vicinity of a remnant MCV across NE OK/far NW AR
this afternoon and evening. However, this will likely depend on
the magnitude of insolation and resultant destabilization which
occurs here. Weak shear should keep the severe threat low overall,
but gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the any
stronger cells. Any ongoing storms are likely to dissipate by
late evening. Overnight, expanding high pressure to our east will
push into the forecast area and result in dry conditions and
cooler temperatures, especially across portions of NW AR where
lows may fall to near 60. Low temperatures likely remain in the
mid-upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Predominantly dry and cooler conditions are expected on wednesday
with ridging influencing the region, though an isolated shower or
weak storm cannot be ruled out along and west of Highway 75. PoPs
were held below 15 percent for now. By Thursday, southerly low
level flow returns, bringing moisture back to the area with
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as a weak wave
approaches from the west. West to southwest flow aloft will then
persist through the weekend as an upper low slowly lifts out of
northern Mexico. This will provide daily rain and storm chances
into early next week. 0-6km shear remains fairly weak which
should help keep severe chances limited, though with abnormally
high PWATs in place, heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding will likely become a concern again. The most widespread
and heaviest rainfall is currently expected to occur Friday
through Sunday. Temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly
above average through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A cluster of storms near KBVO will drop south and could affect the
E OK TAF sites through this evening. Used TEMPO at KBVO and
PROB30s at the other sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to
prevail outside of storms. Some spotty shower activity is
suggested by the latest short-term models across eastern OK aft
17Z on Wednesday. Included VCSH at the E OK sites. Thunder
potential too low to mention at this time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  66  86 /  30  10   0  20
FSM   67  86  66  87 /  10   0   0  30
MLC   70  88  67  86 /   0  10   0  30
BVO   67  85  62  86 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   59  79  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   68  84  66  85 /  20  10   0  30
MIO   65  83  62  85 /  30   0   0  10
F10   68  85  64  85 /   0  10   0  30
HHW   70  85  68  84 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30