384
FXUS64 KTSA 061735
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall today. Similar
    pattern tonight into Saturday. Focus may shift slightly
    southward Saturday night into Sunday and even more southward
    Saturday night into Sunday.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Organized MCS has mostly exited the area this morning with just
lingering showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas. The severe threat has ended for this
morning with skies beginning to clear from west to east in the
wake of the convective complex. Any remaining precipitation should exit
the area by noon. The rest of today will see clearing to partly
cloudy skies. Outflow from the decaying MCS has generally stalled
near the Red River and will begin to lift back north through the
afternoon as a pseudo warm front. This will bring warm and muggy
conditions back across most of the region by late afternoon with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s and low level
moisture increasing. Earlier updates this morning accounted for
the trends in PoPs and temperatures across the region as the MCS
moved through. The forecast for this afternoon remains on track.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A similar pattern is likely to develop again tonight into the
morning hours on Saturday. While details often change depending on
the preceding convective influences, the idea of storms developing
by evening and expanding in coverage across the forecast area
tonight is generally well agreed upon at this time. Storms would
again be exiting the forecast area by afternoon on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday may mark a more southward focus for the
heaviest precip and favor the southern half of the forecast area.
Troughing deepens through the central CONUS on Sunday and drives
a stronger front and yet another storm complex southward. Current
indications are that this MCS would again favor areas west and
possibly the southern half of the forecast area. All the above
scenarios would pose a risk of severe weather and potential
flooding.

The active storm period likely wanes for early to mid next week
with seasonably pleasant weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Improving conditions to all VFR is expected over the early
afternoon hours as all precip and cloud cover associated with the
convective system scatters out. VFR conditions are expected
through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours before
thunderstorm chances return again late tonight. Best chances will
reside across NE OK sites over into NW AR early tomorrow morning.
More uncertainty in storm coverage for KMLC and KFSM so have
elected to maintain PROB30 groups at those locations. Elsewhere,
expect numerous showers and storms overnight with MVFR to IFR cigs
and vsbys, similar to this morning. Complex of storms will shift
eastward through the morning hours with some lingering showers or
storms lasting into the late morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  65  90 /  80  70  10  10
FSM   72  88  67  91 /  50  80  30  10
MLC   72  88  66  90 /  40  60  40  10
BVO   65  84  62  89 /  80  60   0  10
FYV   67  84  62  88 /  70  90  20  10
BYV   66  82  62  86 /  60  90  10   0
MKO   69  83  64  88 /  60  80  20  10
MIO   66  82  62  86 /  70  80  10  10
F10   68  85  64  88 /  60  70  20  10
HHW   73  89  70  90 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20