833
FXUS64 KTSA 050220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 920 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

  - Strong/severe storm threat continues this evening, focused
    across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

  - High rain chances continue through Sunday morning, with heavy
    rain and flood potential continuing across southeast Oklahoma
    and western Arkansas.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    changing to snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning north
    of Interstate 40. Minor accumulation is possible.

  - A freeze is expected many areas Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The front has shifted east away from the region this evening, with
the bulk of the severe threat done. There is still some elevated
hail threat with storms across far eastern OK into western AR this
evening. Otherwise there should be a relative lull in the activity
for much of the 06Z to 12Z window. The next wave of rain and
storms arrives around 11Z from the southwest. This next wave of
weather is not expected to carry the severe threat that this
morning`s storms did. However, it will exacerbate any ongoing
flooding issues and some flash flood warnings may need to be
reissued.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue this
afternoon, supported by warm advection in the 850-700 hPa layer and
good diffluence aloft. Over the next few hours the potential for
severe weather will intensify across southeast OK and northwest AR
as the upper level trough approaches and begins to become negatively
tilted. In the lower levels the boundary will see strong
frontogenesis as cold advection increases north of the boundary in
the surface to 900 hPa layer. This in conjunction with the more
favorable upper level dynamics will support the severe weather
threat ramping up.

There are several factors to consider for this afternoon and
evenings severe weather. The lifting boundary will probably become
tied up on the north side with the terrain in west-central AR, and
will be limited to the west by the advancing cold air. This should
limit surface based instability to mainly Le Flore, Sebastian, and
Franklin Counties. This area will be most susceptible to the severe
weather threat, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind.
Elsewhere, roughly along and south/east of a line from McAlester to
Bentonville, elevated instability will support severe hail or wind
from any stronger cells that can form. This area will shrink from
the west as the cold air moves in, with most severe weather ending
sometime between 6-9 PM this evening.

The flood threat will continue to increase as storms develop across
southeastern portions of the forecast area, with areas of flash
flooding and minor-moderate river flooding developing. The
existing Flood Watch covers this threat for the areas most likely
to be impacted. Total rainfall today could be several inches in
the hardest hit locations.

A brief lull is then expected until late in the overnight period,
then yet another round of showers and storms will move in from the
southwest. Unlike the last few days, the chance of thunder will be
pretty low for the northwest half of the area, with more of a
moderate stratiform rain developing. For southeast OK a few storms
could become marginally severe with wind or hail, but it should be
brief. Any areas that are seeing flooding will see an exacerbation
of conditions given the additional rainfall. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 40s in NE OK to mid 50s in the southeast
portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The next round of rainfall will be ongoing Saturday morning, with
light to moderate rainfall for the entire forecast area, but with
pockets of heavier rainfall under any thunderstorms in southeast OK
into west-central AR. The rain threat will gradually diminish into
the afternoon with very breezy northerly flow developing and cooler
air spilling into the area. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph, but for
now elected to forego a Wind Advisory given speeds are only
marginally reaching criteria. With all of the additional rain,
several rivers will be pushed into moderate flood stage. Although
conditions will again briefly dry out Saturday evening, the upper
level low will pass overhead with one final round of wraparound
rainfall on the backside of the storm. This is expected Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Model guidance continues to show
uncertainty with respect to exactly where this heavier
precipitation band will set up as well as its intensity. With that
said, the timing is ideal to allow for maximum cooling of the
column, and areas of mixed rain and snow or perhaps all snow will
develop. As ground conditions remain warm, meaningful accumulation
is unlikely, but its certainly possible that anywhere across
northeast OK or northwest AR could see a brief dusting of snow
early Sunday morning. No travel impacts are anticipated.

Conditions finally dry out later Sunday with dry weather through
much of next week expected. Monday morning will likely be the
coldest this week, with many areas at or below freezing. Freeze
headlines are likely for Monday morning. Temperatures will
gradually warm back into the 70s and 80s with mostly sunny
conditions. River flooding will probably continue for several days
before subsiding, especially along main stem rivers. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
with rounds of showers/storms also expected to impact area sites.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
with rounds of showers/storms also expected to impact area sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  49  34  50 /  70  90  90  30
FSM   51  53  40  52 /  90 100  90  30
MLC   48  51  35  51 / 100 100  90  20
BVO   45  49  33  52 /  60  90  80  20
FYV   47  49  33  49 /  90 100  90  30
BYV   45  47  34  45 /  90 100  90  40
MKO   47  50  34  49 /  90 100 100  30
MIO   45  46  34  49 /  60  90  90  40
F10   46  49  34  51 /  90 100 100  30
HHW   51  55  39  50 / 100 100  80  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67