358
FXUS64 KTSA 011726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

 - Above average temperatures are expected over the next 7 days.

 - Low to medium rain chances develop tonight into Friday
   morning, but most rain totals are expected to remain light.
   Overall, dry conditions are likely to persist into next week.

 - Fire weather potential likely increases by early next week
   with breezy afternoon winds, very warm temperatures, and low
   relative humidity values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A weak surface boundary has settled over northeast Oklahoma this
morning, with northerly surface winds noted behind the boundary.
Slightly cooler temps are expected this afternoon to the north of
the boundary while temperatures south of the boundary will climb
into the upper 60s. The boundary will wash out more or less later
this afternoon as southerly winds return in response to surface
pressure falls occurring over the High Plains. Mid and high cloud
cover will also increase this afternoon ahead of modest mid level
disturbance.

This quick moving shortwave will track across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas late tonight into Friday morning, in tandem with a
weak surface low which will ride along the Red River. This area of
vorticity should be enough to spawn a zone of light showers across
eastern Oklahoma late tonight along a weak mid-level deformation
zone as surface moisture increases slightly...generally south of I-
44. Forecast soundings show a relatively dry layer close to the
surface, which will likely eat in to rain totals as evaporation
takes place. Rain totals are generally forecast to remain around a
tenth of an inch or less. Some areas could see upwards of a quarter
inch where some of the heavier showers can develop.

Skies will clear from west to east throughout the morning and early
afternoon hours Friday as the rain pushes east rather quickly with
the shortwave. The early day cloud cover, especially across the
north, along with northerly winds filling in behind the exiting
system will keep forecast highs slightly cooler, but still above
normal, on Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A secondary push of cooler air will arrive Friday night into
Saturday as a surface high drop southward out of the Northern
Plains. Some areas of low clouds could also filter in,
particularly across the eastern half of the forecast area,
Saturday morning as another mid level wave passes over the region.
These clouds could be stubborn to erode throughout the day and
the result will be cooler temperatures, closer to normal across
the north, on Saturday. Temperatures begin to rebound on Sunday
and will rise well above normal again on Monday as southerly winds
return and mid-level heights rise as ridging builds back over the
Southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will increase somewhat
each afternoon, as winds become gusty.

A dry frontal passage is expected on Tuesday, which will knock
temperatures back a few degrees for the middle part of the week, but
temps remain well above normal. Rain chances could increase over the
last part of the work week as a western CONUS trough takes shape and
potentially lifts over the region on Thursday, shunting the ridge to
the east. Differences remain among various deterministic and
ensemble guidance on the track and strength of this system, but an
uptick in PoPs is noted in this forecast across eastern portions of
the forecast area next Thursday.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

We`ll see increasing mid and high cloud this afternoon and tonight
ahead of a fast-moving upper storm system. By late tonight into
Friday morning, cigs will settle down to around 10kft with some
spotty showers around. With low to medium precip chances in the
forecast, elected to use prob30s to convey most likely time
windows at the various sites. Statistical guidance suggested best
chance for vsbys lower than VFR was from TUL/RVS east into NW AR
at FYV/ROG/XNA where an MVFR vsby was included in prob30 group.
Aside from this, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites
through the period with light winds.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  58  35  52 /  40  30   0   0
FSM   46  64  43  57 /  40  40   0   0
MLC   48  67  41  56 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   37  55  29  51 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   45  61  38  50 /  20  40   0   0
BYV   45  56  38  49 /  10  30   0   0
MKO   47  63  39  53 /  50  30   0   0
MIO   42  56  34  48 /  10  20   0   0
F10   47  64  38  54 /  50  20   0   0
HHW   49  69  44  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30