292
FXUS64 KTSA 261742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Dangerous heat conditions Sunday and likely continue through
   at least Tuesday.

 - Potential minor cool down and some chance of showers and
   storms from mid to late week but uncertainties remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday )
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominate feature
across the southern and central Plains through Monday. Underneath
the ridge, hot and humid conditions also remain common across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Monday, with high
temperatures of upper 90s to around 104 degrees and heat index
values in the 105 to 115 degree range. Winds so far today have
been slow to mix dewpoints across northeast Oklahoma, and as such
have upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning west of Highway 75 and
also for Ottawa co. The rest of the current heat headlines seemed
to be in good shape at this time. Winds are forecast to be
slightly more breezy Monday, and have issued a Heat Advisory for
the entire CWA for Monday afternoon. Depending on how dewpoints
mix out Monday afternoon, there is potential for parts of
northeast Oklahoma and also the River Valley of west central
Arkansas to be upgraded to a Warning.

Not much relief is anticipated tonight either with lows only
getting into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. With these
conditions through Monday, continue to take necessary heat
precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure begins to retreat westward starting Tuesday, which
opens the door for a few shortwaves to slide down the eastern
periphery of the ridge through the region for the second half of
the forecast period. Latest model solutions indicate the first of
these waves and associated weak frontal boundary approaching the
CWA Tuesday. Ahead of the boundary, continued hot and humid
conditions continue with the potential for pooling moisture
along/near the Oklahoma Kansas border as the boundary approaches.
Thus, additional heat headlines are likely again Tuesday
afternoon.

The boundary is forecast to move into the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday and potentially set up from northwest to southeast
over northeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Slight to low end
chances for showers/storms develop mainly along and east of this
boundary, closer to the weak low pressure center. This activity
looks to exit Wednesday night.

Timing differences/strength of the second shortwave shows up in
the data Thursday/Friday. However, the boundary or some form of
the boundary from Wednesday looks to remain over the region which
could spark another slight to low end chance for showers/storms
again for the eastern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon and
Friday. Details with the rain chances and the boundary location
will determine the degree to any cooler conditions for the CWA
late week.

In the extended forecast period, model solutions continue to
highlight a more defined wave and cold front trying to push
southeast through the Plains next weekend. Precip chances extend
into Saturday for parts of the region, while conditions more
closer to seasonal average develop for the CWA for next weekend.
Timing and details will continue to be revamped through the week,
but there is potential for a break in the current hot/humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with south to
southwest winds at 5-15 kts, lighter overnight. Mostly clear skies
expected today, with SCT coverage overnight in the 7-10 kft layer
and some additional higher clouds. No rain will occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 103  81 104 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   79 102  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77 104  78 102 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   77  99  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
F10   78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075-172-276-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-
     055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-
     064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06