632
FXUS64 KTSA 250448
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cold front, currently moving into Pawnee/Osage counties this
evening, will continue pushing south overnight. Gusty north winds
will increase at 20 to 30 mph behind the front across northeast
Oklahoma with wind chills falling to around 30 degrees by Monday
morning near the OK/KS state line. Current short term forecast on
track this evening with no significant changes anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

An upper wave just off the West Coast will move quickly east
across the country this week, sliding over the central CONUS as
we approach Thanksgiving. A west to east band of light post-
frontal precip is forecast by the GFS and EC near and north of the
KS/MO borders Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. The GFS is farther
south and slower, while the EC is faster and mainly north of the
KS/MO borders. Ensemble cluster data from 00Z last night shows
basically equal chances of the former and latter solutions. With
the blended guidance (NBM) forecast below mentionable levels, it
is prudent at this point to at least insert a mention of precip
and thus have gone slight chance, like the previous shift. Thermal
profiles do cool enough during this time frame to justify a
rain/snow mix, which will be carried in the grids. There is no
accumulation or impact expected from this, regardless.

Colder temps will follow in the wake of this system for
Thanksgiving Day with some modification expected thru Saturday.
Indications are another stronger front is expected to plunge south
down the Plains by around Sunday, with the coldest temps seen in
quite some time expected behind this front. We`ll just have to
wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cold front nearing I-44 corridor at present will continue pushing
southeast through the area tonight, likely passing through all
sites by shortly after 12z. Winds switch to NNW with gusts 20-25
knots becoming more common a few hours after initial wind shift.
Lower ceilings will move in behind the front as well, with MVFR
conditions likely for several hours, potentially lingering into
Monday evening across northwest AR. WInds will diminish after
00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  52  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  62  35  58 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   49  59  31  59 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   40  51  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  58  26  57 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   51  57  29  55 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   47  56  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  55  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  63  36  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14