099
FXUS64 KTSA 132326
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

 - Low rain chances late tonight/Thursday morning across NE OK
   and NW AR

 - Low chances of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend, with
   a limited severe weather potential during the period.

 - Temperatures near to above mid May normals forecast through
   the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak frontal boundary continues to drift southward across the
forecast area today, primarily ushering in a drier airmass and
northeasterly winds. Temperatures north of the boundary will
remain near 80 degrees for highs this afternoon, while locations
across southeast Oklahoma climb into the upper 80s with a later
frontal passage. Overall, a pleasant day is in store with low
impact weather persisting as surface ridging moves overhead. The
surface ridge will shift eastward this evening with southerly
winds increasing overnight tonight in response to a tightening
gradient over the region. The surface front will also surge back
northward late tonight with elevated warm advection setting up
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few showers or
thunderstorms could develop on the nose of this ascent toward
daybreak Thursday. Severe weather potential is very low with any
activity.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Ongoing scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday
morning across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas
before shifting northeast by midday. Gusty southerly winds of
30-35mph will develop Thursday morning into the afternoon leading
to robust moisture return over the region by Thursday night. A
weak mid level wave will track across southern Kansas/northern
Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening. This disturbance will
interact with the better moisture to possibly spark a few showers
and thunderstorms across northwest and north central Oklahoma late
in the day Thursday. This activity is primarily progged to stay
focused west and north of the forecast area, but a storm or two
could creep into far western portions of the forecast area
Thursday night with a limited severe potential. Another round of
warm advection showers/storms will be possible friday morning in
association with the passing shortwave.

Friday will be warm and breezy once again, with highs possibly
approaching 90 in some areas, though more cloud cover should limit
the temps from reaching full potential. Thunderstorm chances will
exist again on Friday afternoon and evening, though slightly
better chances will arrive overnight Friday into Saturday morning
as storms that develop across western Oklahoma track eastward into
eastern Oklahoma. Above normal temperatures and at least low
thunderstorm chances, with limited severe potential, will exist
each day through Sunday as rich moisture remains planted over the
region. A stronger storm system is expected to eject out across
the Central and Northern Plains by early next week, dragging
another frontal boundary into the region. The boundary is progged
to linger in the vicinity into the middle part of the next week.
This will be the best chance for more widespread thunderstorm
potential. The slow moving nature of the boundary would suggest a
heavy rain threat could emerge, especially with forecast PWAT
values near climatological maximums. Severe potential will also
exist, though timing and greatest threat remain uncertain at this
range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

High clouds increase across the CWA tonight and remain common
through the day Thursday ahead of a ridge of high pressure moving
eastward over the southern Plains. Late tonight into Thursday
morning, scattered to broken mid clouds are also forecast over
the northern half of the CWA. Within the mid clouds, an isolated
chance of a shower/storm develops for far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas. For now though will continue to keep TAF
sites dry with little to no impacts to terminals. Winds become
light out of the east this evening/tonight and then increase out
of the southeast/south during the day Thursday. VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  85  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   56  84  63  89 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   60  85  70  88 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   55  85  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
FYV   52  79  66  86 /  10  20   0  20
BYV   50  79  65  86 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   57  83  68  87 /  10   0   0  20
MIO   53  80  66  85 /  20  20   0  20
F10   58  84  71  87 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   62  85  68  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20