921
FXUS64 KTSA 041111
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

 - Low shower and storm chances (primarily for eastern Oklahoma)
   through this afternoon. Highest PoPs west of U.S. 75.

 - Cooler than normal weather continues today with highs in the 80s
   and lows mostly in the 60s.

 - A warming trend will commence with a return to above average
   temperatures by Thursday. Heat headlines could return late in
   the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Most shower and thunderstorm activity has thus far remained well
west of the area, aside from a couple storms in Pittsburg County
earlier Sunday evening. A notable complex of strong to severe
thunderstorms was observed moving SEwrd through SW Kansas and W
Oklahoma early Sunday night. While the majority of these storms are
likely to remain west of our FA, there is a low chance this activity
clips parts of SE OK early this morning. Additional eastward
development will remain possible through the overnight with a mid-
upper level wave passing over the region. PoPs are greatest along
and west of Highway 75... generally 20-40%... and decrease to less
than 10% in far E Oklahoma. Low shower/ storm chances continue into
today as troughing persists with a subtle shortwave moving through
this afternoon. However, precip trends should generally be
decreasing by late day with HREF supporting mostly dry conditions by
this evening. Severe weather is unlikely, but any stronger storms
may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise,
partly cloudy skies are forecast today with light winds and highs in
the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Upper level ridging begins to expand into the southern plains
tonight, and this feature is likely to be the most influential
factor during the extended forecast. Guidance varies in terms of
strength and exact positioning of the ridge, which could allow some
periodic rain potential, but overall a dry forecast is in store
through much of this week. Additionally, with southerly flow
returning at the surface, temperatures and dewpoints will begin to
increase once again. As a result, intense summer heat is likely to
make a comeback after our brief period of below average temps and
heat headlines may be required by mid-late week for at least parts
of the CWA.

Going into this upcoming weekend/ next week, ridging is projected to
deamplify as longwave troughing develops over N-Central CONUS. This
may present the opportunity for increasing rain chances in the CWA,
though models remain varied in just how much the ridge breaks down.
With this uncertainty in mind, will stick with NBM PoPs for now,
which introduce low rain/ storm chances across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Some light fog may persist for the first couple hours of the
forecast period at KFYV, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  91  71 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   89  71  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   88  68  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   86  64  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   84  63  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   84  63  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   86  68  91  69 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   85  65  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
F10   86  68  90  68 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   87  69  91  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05