Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
755 FXUS64 KTSA 022300 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 500 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 457 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 - Cooler conditions near and north of I-40 Monday. - Gusty southerly winds and warmer Tuesday with elevated fire weather danger. - An unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday into the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall and severe weather potentials at times. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 The frontal boundary that moved through yesterday remained positioned near the Red River midday Monday. North of this boundary, a weak disturbance aloft was aiding in cloud cover as well as patchy areas of light drizzle ongoing over much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In response, temperatures have been slow to warm with temperatures in the 40s north to near 60 deg south. As this disturbance and the patchy drizzle exits this afternoon, temperatures are anticipated to try to make a late afternoon rally to around 50 deg near the Kansas border to around 70 deg near the Red River. Overnight tonight, the boundary lifts northward through the CWA as a low pressure system drops southeast into the central Rocky Mountain region. The combination of the boundary interacting with increasing warm advection and a 30-40KT low level jet will help to create slight to low end chances for rain showers for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas tonight. Temperatures tonight could reach their lows near/slightly after midnight before slowly rising with the frontal passage. The boundary is forecast to be near the Kansas/Missouri borders around 12z Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 In the wake of the lifting front, gusty southerly winds and much warmer temperatures quickly return Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system over the Rockies moving out into the Plains. These conditions will create limited fire weather danger for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, a limiting factor will be the southerly flow transporting low level moisture back into the region with afternoon min relative humidity values generally in the 40-50 percent range. With the low pressure system moving out across the central Plains Tuesday night this will provide a push of the frontal boundary back southeast into the CWA late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase with the approaching front and become likely over much of the CWA Wednesday/Wednesday night. Ahead/southeast of the boundary, severe potentials develop due to increasing instability and precipitable water values nearing the 99th percent- tile. The greater severe potential currently resides over southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas through the late evening hours and then looks to weaken into early Thursday morning once the low pressure system exits. Also, a heavy rain threat exists Wednesday/Wednesday night with a low potential for excessive rainfall. Another area of low pressure is progged to drop southward into the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico late week which will help kick the frontal boundary back northward again Thursday. Warmer temperatures and southerly winds return through Friday. A portion of the low pressure system out over the southwest U.S. looks to break off and move through the Plains over the weekend, which will once again drop the front back through the CWA over the weekend. Thus, shower and thunderstorm chances remain forecast late week through the weekend. Severe potentials and a heavy rain threat exist Friday night and Saturday ahead of the southeastward moving front. With the abundant moisture over the CWA through the weekend, seven-day rainfall totals of widespread one to three inches are forecast with locally higher amounts. Limited excessive rainfall potential will allow for a low flood threat through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Areas of low ceilings are expected to continue for most terminals through the overnight hours, though some periods of improved ceiling remain likely at times. For most areas this will be in the 1-3 kft range, but occasionally lower ceilings may occur in northeast OK. Visibility will mostly remain above 6 SM so no reductions were included in the TAFs. A few sprinkles could occur, but measurable rain is unlikely. Wind will become southerly overnight, then become breezy Tuesday morning after sunrise for all areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 52 80 57 69 / 20 20 70 80 FSM 56 81 62 78 / 10 10 20 60 MLC 59 81 63 76 / 10 10 50 70 BVO 47 80 50 64 / 30 20 70 70 FYV 55 78 61 74 / 20 10 50 80 BYV 52 78 61 73 / 20 20 40 80 MKO 55 80 60 73 / 10 10 50 80 MIO 52 78 58 68 / 40 30 70 80 F10 55 81 62 74 / 10 10 50 80 HHW 59 80 63 78 / 10 10 20 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...06