527
FXUS64 KTSA 110512
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Warming trend begins Tuesday, with much above normal
   temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.

 - Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions
   Tuesday and again Thursday through Saturday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, with a
   low chance for strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with gusty south winds
developing. Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the 60s,
and a few spots may reach 70 mainly west of Highway 75. The gusty
winds, warmer temperatures, and low humidity values will raise
fire weather concerns by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A weak frontal boundary will sag into the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday before washing out. This boundary will do little to
slow the warming trend, but will result in much lighter winds
Wednesday. Stronger south winds will return for the latter part of
the week into Saturday, and temperatures will be much above normal
Wednesday through Saturday.

A strong storm system is still on track to affect the area this
weekend, but models continue to struggle with the track and timing
of the system. The general consensus is for a slower progression
of the system into our area, and as such have lowered pops in the
Saturday and Saturday night time frame. The greatest rainfall
potential now appears to be Sunday and Sunday night, with still a
low chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms if the timing
and track of the system end up being favorable for such.

Temperatures will fall back closer to the seasonal averages
following the passage of this system early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Broken high clouds will remain common into Tuesday across the CWA
while surface high pressure exits to the southeast. Behind the
departing surface high, gusty southerly low level flow spreads
back over the region with strong low level wind shear late tonight
into Tuesday morning for all TAF sites. Surface winds increase
overnight and become gusty Tuesday morning with gusts of 20-28KT
forecast. Winds should begin to weaken Tuesday evening with
scattered to broken high clouds continuing for the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  65  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   29  69  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   26  61  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  60  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  67  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   27  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20