341
FXUS64 KTSA 191755
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

 - Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and again
   Monday across higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Hot and humid conditions continue to intensify and peak on
   Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front.

 - Uncertainty remains in the mid to late week forecast with
   regards to frontal boundary and precip chances. However
   expectation is minimal cooling with heat impacts continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Hot and humid conditions are ongoing with isolated afternoon
showers and storms beginning to develop from SE OK through western
AR. Overall expect lower precip coverage today which quickly
dissipates after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The forecast trend remains consistent today with the focus being
excessive heat conditions trending more widespread on Monday and
peaking in coverage and intensity on Tuesday. This forecast
favored a trend of slightly lower high temps but also higher
afternoon dewpoints. The end result maintains a widespread
footprint of excessive heat conditions and excessive heat warnings
are likely needed by Tuesday. Any coverage of afternoon showers
and storms on Monday and Tuesday will be very low and likely
confined to the higher terrain areas.

Weak cold front timed for a Tuesday night arrival before stalling
across the forecast area on Wednesday. The upper ridge center
begins to migrate slightly westward by late week which will also
aid in keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler. However, the
overall expectation is temps above normal for most locations
through late week. Any precip chances also continue to favor the
far eastern periphery of the forecast area in line with the upper
ridge placement. While this general scenario has remained
consistent, there does remain notable spread amongst ensemble
guidance for late week which should be followed for potential
forecast adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period as scattered cu and
mid cloud develop this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will
again be possible this afternoon, with less coverage expected than
previous days. Best chances will be from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas, but have left out of mention in the TAFs at
this point. Winds will generally remain light out of the south to
southwest and west through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  99  80 102 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   77  99  79 101 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   77  98  76 100 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   76  99  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   74  95  74  98 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   73  96  75  98 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   76  97  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   75  98  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
F10   75  96  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   75  95  76 100 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>068-070-
     071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>068-
     070-071-073>075-176-254-272-276-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ119-120-129-
     219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04