027
FXUS64 KTSA 241815
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of
   locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The
   possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

 - Periods of low to medium rain chances continue through at least
   mid week.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until
   widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The scattered showers and thunderstorms around the region this
morning have largely dissipated and shifted east with the
departing mid level wave. Surface analysis shows a weak frontal
boundary hanging out around northern Oklahoma extending westward
into west central Oklahoma as a surface low becomes centered over
central Oklahoma. Another weak mid level disturbance is also noted
on water vapor imagery moving across southern Kansas toward the
local region around the periphery of the stubborn upper ridge. Hot
conditions persist, especially south of the weak boundary, where
a Heat Advisory continues this afternoon. Persistent showery
conditions and cloud cover have kept temperatures in check for the
most part across the north and east, so will run with the current
configuration of the advisory for now, while monitoring trends.

Later this afternoon and evening, low shower and thunderstorm
chances will develop again across eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas along the stalled frontal boundary and in response to
the approaching vort max. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity, but a few stronger storms could develop, with locally
damaging wind gusts the main threat. Any storms that do develop
will likely wane into the overnight hours as the influence of the
mid level wave exits the area, though a few showers could linger
across portions of southeast Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A lull in activity is expected through much of Tuesday, with
overall warmer conditions areawide anticipated. The frontal
boundary will lose some of its definition by Tuesday afternoon,
but a small temperature gradient will exist form north to south
across the frontal zone. Temperatures in the triple digits can be
expected from I-40 south, with upper 90s more common across the
north. Have opted to catch the low hanging fruit with a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow south of the boundary. Will hold off
issuance for now across the north with more uncertainty in
boundary influences for those locations. The advisory may need to
be extended further north with later forecast packages. Potentially
more active weather returns by Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
more potent mid level shortwave will drop southeast out of the
High Plains. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop
well northwest of the forecast area Tuesday evening and track
southeastward through the night Tuesday. This complex may reach
portions of northeastern Oklahoma early Wednesday morning.
Additional showers and storms will be possible during the day
Wednesday, with focus shifting south and east with time as the
vort max moves across the region. A reinforcing shot of cooler low
level temperatures will also arrive in the wake of this system
with more normal temperatures expected Wednesday into Thursday.

Upper ridging is forecast to become more centered over the
Southern Plains as we head into the weekend. This will bring
another period of hot and dry weather over much of the area.
Temperatures will trend back well above normal, with little in the
way of rain chances through the last half of the forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Generally VFR conditions will persist across the region. Ongoing
high based showers and isolated storms will continue into the
afternoon but any impacts would be brief and likely confined to
western AR sites. Low chance of late afternoon and evening storms
and below mentionable levels for terminals. Thunderstorm
influences are expected to remain the reason for departure from
VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  99  75  95 /  10   0  10  20
FSM   75 103  75 100 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   77 104  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   70  97  70  94 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   71  98  72  95 /  20   0  20  20
BYV   71  94  71  92 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   74 101  73  96 /  20   0  10  20
MIO   72  96  72  94 /   0   0  20  20
F10   74 102  73  97 /  20   0  10  20
HHW   77 102  76  99 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
     073>075-176-272-276.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     071-073.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07