288
FXUS64 KTSA 041803
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1203 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through
   Saturday.

 - Breezy conditions develop again Thursday afternoon, but winds
   should remain below advisory criteria.

 - A strong cold front Saturday will drop temperatures below
   seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, but dry
   conditions will likely continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Another pleasant, albeit breezy and very mild, day has transpired
across eastern OK and western AR. With the exception of maybe far
southeast OK, expect gusty south/southwest winds to persist
through the remainder of the afternoon. Frequent gusts between
20-30 mph, occasionally higher, will be common. Visible satellite
imagery shows some scattered high clouds streaming in the quasi-
zonal flow aloft, straddling the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. As of
noon, surface obs indicate temperatures have already reached the
low-mid 70s in most spots (mid-upper 60s in far northwest AR),
with dewpoints still struggling to rise above 50 degrees. These
dry and breezy conditions will maintain limited fire weather
concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. The forecast
remains on track for afternoon highs to reach the mid-upper 70s in
most locations.

Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon and into this
evening, becoming light-moderate (6-12 mph) overnight tonight.
Mild temperatures will continue again, with overnight lows
reaching the low-mid 50s in most places. A few spots may drop
below 50 degrees briefly. A weak and dry cold front will work its
way south across the Central Plains overnight tonight, likely
reaching the OK/KS border by daybreak Wednesday. No impacts
expected.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Roller coaster temperatures, mostly dry, and mostly non-impactful
weather is forecast to occur through the long term period. A weak
and dry cold front will push into northeast OK and far northwest
AR by mid morning tomorrow. The front may sag as far south as the
I-40 corridor before becoming stationary and washing out tomorrow
night into Thursday morning. Winds will turn northeasterly and
become moderately breezy (sustained 10-15 mph) behind the frontal
boundary, especially north of I-44 through the afternoon. Winds
turn south/southeast again and the surface pressure gradient will
rapidly tighten up by Thursday morning and into the afternoon as
another lee cyclone develops in the High Plains. Bumped up wind
speeds/gusts a touch from the conservative NBM solution. Wind
speeds should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but widespread
frequent gusts 20-30 mph will likely occur through the daytime.
The breezy southerly winds will also advect unseasonably warm air
into the region, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 70s
to lower 80s in most spots.

A mostly dry cold front is still on track to penetrate the
forecast area Friday morning and into the afternoon. A few of the
latest forecast models show the front struggling to fully push
through the area, stalling across southeast OK in the afternoon.
This has caused some variations in temperatures on Friday for
portions of the area. Trended afternoon highs a degree or two
warmer from guidance, but these temperatures may need to be
adjusted later with a better grasp of what the front does.
Maintained very low, unmentionable (10%) PoPs (mainly light
rain/sprinkles) across far eastern OK and northwest AR in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary. Not expecting much QPF, if any
at all, with this front.

A much more significant cold front is still forecast to push
through the forecast area on Saturday afternoon/evening. This cold
front also looks to be dry, but will usher in much colder and
drier air Saturday night, Sunday, and into Monday before
southerly winds return and a warm-up occurs by Tuesday. Guidance
continues to trend colder and shows afternoon highs generally in
the 40s and 50s area-wide, with lows dropping near or below
freezing both on Sunday night and Monday night. If trends continue
and the forecast temperatures verify, the coldest temperatures
will occur on Sunday night into Monday morning, with widespread
freezing temperatures and wind chills in the 20s, even as far
south as the Red River.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period for
all sites. Strong SSW winds persist this afternoon before reducing
this evening and overnight. LLJ intensifies by late evening with
LLWS developing for all sites tonight. Frontal boundary moves into
the region mid-late tomorrow morning, bringing a wind shift to NE OK
sites near the end of the current forecast period. High clouds
continue to stream over the region through tonight and tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  73  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  76  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   51  73  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   54  73  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  75  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   51  71  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   52  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43