184
FXUS64 KTSA 210439
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

 - Very hot conditions are expected through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-115 for much of the area.

 - A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday and
   Thursday, but the heat will return Friday.

 - Mainly dry weather is expected until at least Thursday, with
   low rain chances developing toward the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Limited relief from the widespread extreme heat seen earlier this
afternoon is expected tonight with overnight lows remaining on
the high side once again. A few spots should remain above 80
degrees given current temp and dew point readings and the 24 hour
trends. The warm overnight temperatures set the stage for another
around of extreme heat on Tuesday. Expect air temperatures to be a
few degrees higher than those seen today given the position of the
upper level high and warmer 850 temps ahead of a weak front set to
move through later in the day. NBM temperatures have continued to
be a couple of degrees too warm, and as such, this forecast
reflects highs consistent with the short term blended guidance.
Highs should still largely be in the triple digits areawide, and
with continued high dew points, will lead to widespread heat index
values from 110 to 115. Given what happened today, Cherokee and
northern Sequoyah counties have been added to the Extreme Heat
Warning tomorrow. Some consideration was given to adding Benton
and Carroll as well and would not be surprised if they need to be
added at some point Tuesday. In addition to the heat, some CAMs do
show some isolated shower/thunderstorm development across parts of
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas along the
aforementioned front. Have increased POPs from the NBM
initialization across these areas to just below mentionable
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The weak front should move through the entire area by Wednesday
morning, with a noticeable decrease in low level moisture, north
to northeast winds and a modest cooldown. High temperatures on
Wednesday should still be near to above normal in most spots but
should feel nicer given the lower humidity and certainly compared
to expectations on Tuesday. The influence of the front will linger
into Thursday, but southerly winds and a return to heat and
humidity is expected Friday. Highs on Friday have been adjusted
downward a couple of degrees from the NBM initialization using the
blended traditional MOS guidance given the aforementioned
overforecasting by the NBM in similar scenarios. An expected
increase in cloud cover should also serve as a limiting factor
regarding how high temperatures could be. A low chance of shower
and thunderstorms across parts of northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas will develop Thursday night into Friday in
response to disturbances moving southeast along the edge of the
upper high. This potential should expand southward Friday night
into Saturday, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The increased cloud cover and precipitation on Saturday
both make the high temperature forecast for Saturday somewhat
uncertain, with a decent gradient in temperatures from west to
east likely across the area. The upper level high should remain
stretched across the region Sunday and into early next week,
leading to an additional stretch of well above normal temperatures
and extreme heat. Confidence is medium to high that the NBM high
temperatures are too high during this period, but a day or two
with triple digit highs and certainly additional heat headlines
should be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through the TAF period with
just a few clouds in the 4-6 kft layer each afternoon and perhaps
a few high clouds. Winds will remain light and out of the south to
southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 102  76  93 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   78 104  79  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78 103  80  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78 101  73  91 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   76  99  74  91 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   75  99  71  89 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   77 103  77  94 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   77  98  72  90 /   0  10   0   0
F10   77 102  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76 102  79  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ069.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-
     053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06