844
FXUS64 KTSA 221059
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
559 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - Near average temperatures through the weekend for eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas.

 - Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
   much of next week with a locally heavy rainfall threat.

 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

An elevated Theta-e axis currently over far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas will continue to push southwestward within the
mid level mean flow through the morning hours Friday. A non-zero
chance of an isolated shower exists over this area, though mostly
will be noted by an area of increased mid clouds into Friday
morning. This theta-e axis is expected to set up near the Red River
Friday afternoon before exiting the region to the south. Again, an
isolated shower potential will remain through the afternoon hours
for far southeast Oklahoma, along with scattered cumulus clouds over
the CWA. However, will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria as any
development looks to be less in coverage compared to what developed
in the theta-e axis in southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.

The dome of high pressure remains centered over the Four Corners
region Friday morning. By Friday evening, the ridge becomes oriented
more northwest to southeast over the Western CONUS in response to an
area of low pressure moving east/southeast along the U.S./Canada
border. With eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remaining on
the far eastern periphery of the ridge during the day Friday,
afternoon temperatures look to be close to what was observed
Thursday with highs in the in the low/mid 90s for much of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Area of low pressure is progged to remain near/just northeast of the
Great Lakes region through the weekend with a series of shortwaves
rotating around the base of the parent low.  The first of these is
expected to push a cold front into/through the CWA Saturday late
afternoon and Saturday night. Small chances of showers/storms will
exist as the boundary enters northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon.
Much of this activity looks to weaken Saturday evening while the
boundary continues its push through the CWA. Ahead of the boundary,
slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Saturday afternoon. Behind
the boundary, slightly cooler temperatures forecast Sunday over the
northern half of the CWA while surface high pressure slides through
the Central Plains/Midwest.

The second shortwave is forecast to move through Sunday night and
Monday with increasing rain chances. The greater rain potential as
well as a low chance of thunder is currently forecast across the
northern half of the CWA. Pooling moisture with this shortwave will
aid in a locally heavy rain threat Monday. Additional rain chances
continue Monday night and Tuesday with a third disturbance moving
across the region as upper level northwesterly flow remains over the
Plains through Tuesday. The parent mid/upper level trof axis is
progged to shift eastward Wednesday with surface high pressure
originating from Canada dropping southeast through the Plains. With
surface high pressure increasing Wednesday, precip chances could
weaken for a short time period, before another shortwave looks to
quickly drop through the Plains late next week. Additional
shower/storm chances are forecast next Thursday/Friday. With the
multiple rounds of rain chances, a locally heavy rain threat exists
with each disturbance next week.

A secondary push of colder air is forecast to move into the region
with the second shortwave and remain over the CWA through much of
next week while the Canadian surface high pressure spreads over the
Plains for the middle part of next week. At this time, well below
seasonal average temperatures with highs in the 70s and 80s are
forecast for most locations next week. These cool of temperatures
will be highly dependent on cloud cover and rain showers off and on
through the week. If parts of the CWA, can break out into the August
sun, then these forecast temps would likely be too low.  The greater
potential for this would be across southeast Oklahoma Monday where
lower rain chances are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mostly clear conditions expected through the period, with just a
few afternoon clouds in the 4-6 kft layer. Winds will favor the
northeast through the period, with a bit of gustiness across
northeast OK during the afternoon hours today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  69  93  69 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   95  72  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   94  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  64  91  62 /   0   0  30  10
FYV   91  65  93  66 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   90  64  92  65 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   93  69  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   91  64  90  63 /   0   0  20  10
F10   93  69  94  68 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06