861
FXUS64 KTSA 300544
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today, with afternoon
   heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees.

 - Cooler conditions and low shower and thunderstorm chances late
   Thursday into early next week.

 - Temperatures warming back closer to average by the middle of next
   week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Another hot and humid day is on tap today, with many places seeing
temperatures warm to near the century mark. Afternoon heat index
values will climb into the 105 to 110 degree range, and a heat
advisory will remain in effect from noon until 8 pm. Isolated
afternoon convection will be possible across the higher terrain
areas from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The much anticipated cold front will sag south across the area late
tonight and Thursday with much cooler temperatures following in its
wake. It will be another hot day across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas Thursday ahead of the front, but not quite as hot
as today. Shower and storm chances will also be on the increase late
tonight, initially near the Kansas and Missouri borders. Periodic
shower and storm chances will then continue into early next week as
northwest flow aloft promotes favorable conditions for potential MCS
development. Temperatures will remain well below normal into the
first part of next week.

The upper ridge will begin to build back east over our area by the
middle of next week allowing temperatures to warm back to near
normal levels and bringing an end to the rain chances for the most
part.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Like yesterday, will
see an increase in cu during the afternoon, especially across W
AR, with some spotty showers and storms mainly in the terrain
areas. Chances are not high enough that this activity will impact
the TAF sites to insert mention. Storms developing near an
approaching front may impact portions of NE OK btwn 00Z and 06Z,
but confidence wasn`t high enough to insert a mention in the TAFs
at this time. Will reevaluate this with the 12Z TAF issuance.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  74  88  71 /   0  10  10  30
FSM  101  77  96  74 /  20  10  20  20
MLC  100  75  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
BVO  100  71  85  67 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   98  71  89  67 /  20  10  30  30
BYV   99  71  89  67 /  20  20  40  30
MKO  100  74  93  69 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   99  71  85  69 /  10  20  30  30
F10  100  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   98  75  97  73 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30