180
FXUS64 KTSA 172320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - There is a low-medium chance (20-50%) for storms across parts
   of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas this afternoon
   through this evening.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (<20%) of showers and storms in far southeast
   Oklahoma/western Arkansas Saturday associated with a tropical
   disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning have waned across
much of the area currently. This activity did put out an outflow
boundary that has begun to stall over northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. This will be an area of focus for further
storm development this afternoon as a weak mid level wave moves
across northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Some modest shear
associated with this wave could also lead to a little more
organized convective clusters capable of some strong to severe
downburst winds along with locally heavy rainfall, primarily from
near I-44 and north. Otherwise, south of the boundary and
associated cloud cover it will be hot and humid this afternoon,
with a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the area as heat
index values will range from 105-108 degrees this afternoon.
Showers and storms could linger through much of the evening hours
across northeast Oklahoma, before weakening and shifting
northeastward as the wave exits the area. Seasonably warm
overnight lows expected for tonight across the region.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The frontal boundary more or less washes out by Friday and it
looks like a prolonged period of heat will build into the region
this weekend through the rest of the forecast period. The first
strong upper ridging of the summer is on tap for the foreseeable
future. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday for the
same areas, with possible expansion during later forecasts has
highs in the mid 90s are expected tomorrow afternoon along with
continued humid conditions leading to heat index values in excess
of 105 degrees. Heat headlines will likely continue through much
of the next week with temperatures inching closer to the century
mark next week. The forecast is dry after tonight through the
period, with the exception of some low chance (<20%) for some
showers across far southeast Oklahoma and parts of western
Arkansas both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon as a
tropical disturbance lift northward east of the local region this
weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening
along and north of an outflow boundary extending from OKC area
northeastward into far northwest AR. An uptick in coverage is
possible in this corridor early in the forecast period and persist
for several hours. OUtside of direct storm impacts, VFR conditions
will prevail, though there are at least hints of lower ceilings
developing briefly at KBVO late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  96  76  98 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   77  98  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  96  73  97 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   73  94  73  95 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   72  94  73  96 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   74  95  73  95 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   73  94  73  95 /  40  20   0   0
F10   73  96  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  96  73  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-
     070>072-074-076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060>062-066-
     067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14