729
FXUS64 KTSA 171754
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday. Isolated
   afternoon convection will be possible today and Monday.

 - Shower and storm chances increase across northeast Oklahoma and
   northwest Arkansas late Tuesday, then spread south Wednesday as
   a cold front moves into the area. This cold front will provide
   some relief from the heat for the middle to latter part of the
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Hot and humid conditions prevail today with a broad ridge across the
southern Plains. High temperatures this afternoon will again reach
the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 105-110 F for most of the
forecast area. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM. With that
said, there is the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Mid level moisture is increasing from the west, confirmed by
ACARS soundings and GOES satellite. At the same time there is
evidence of weak mid level troughing and some upper level
divergence. The result should be greater convective coverage than
yesterday, with 5-30% Pops across the area (lowest to the north).
The main impacts will be typical for summer thunderstorms, with
brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

Skies will clear out this evening with another mild night on tap,
mainly in the 70s across the area. Rain is not expected overnight.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Strong ridging remains in place Monday, with a continuation of hot
and humid conditions expected. A Heat Advisory was again issued for
the majority of the forecast area for noon to 8 PM with heat indices
of 105-110 F. A later upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning for some
areas isn`t out of the question, but decided against it since NBM
temperatures have been running a little warm lately. Similar to
today, weak upper level lift and a subtle lower level boundary may
kick a few showers or storms off during the afternoon hours. Impacts
and coverage will be minimal,but PoPs were increased to mentionable
across the area. Hot temperatures will persist into Tuesday as well
with additional heat headlines expected.

By late Tuesday or Wednesday a cold front will move in from the
northwest. Most model guidance develops some showers and
thunderstorms near the front as it pushes in. Maintained PoPs of 25-
40% on Wednesday for all areas. With the extra lift from the front,
a few borderline severe storms could develop, mainly due to wind. As
PWAT will be near 2", very heavy rain may occur with a localized
flash flood potential. For now, neither of these threats is
considered to be widespread or likely. Storms will become confined
to the southeastern portions of the area Thursday with dry
conditions then expected into the weekend.

Temperatures will drop considerably behind the front (Wednesday
onwards). Most locations will fall into the 80s or low 90s for highs
and 60s-70s for lows. NBM seemed too warm compared to ensemble
guidance for this period, so lowered high temperatures a few
degrees. Dew points will drop at least some from current values so
the humidity will feel less intense.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Afternoon storm chances are not high
enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Sfc winds will be
predominantly Srly and not impactful. Expect afternoon cu and
possibly an increase in some mid cloud tonight into Monday. Again,
rain/storm chances Monday are pretty low and not mentionable in
the TAFs for now.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  77  98 /  10  20  10  10
FSM   77 101  77 101 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   76  99  74  99 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   73  99  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
FYV   74  97  72  96 /  10  20  10  20
BYV   75  98  73  96 /  20  20  10  30
MKO   75  98  74  98 /   0  20   0  10
MIO   75  99  73  97 /   0  20  10  20
F10   74  98  74  98 /  10  20   0  10
HHW   75  98  75  99 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-019-020-
     029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30