431
FXUS64 KTSA 111705
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend, and
for much of next week.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in limited
    fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially Sunday
    afternoon.

  - Rain chances return Monday, mainly for areas along and north of I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Mild and dry conditions expected overnight. Patchy valley fog
possible across eastern areas especially near larger lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Winds increase and become gusty Sunday along with unseasonably warm
temperatures. Dewpoint trends are more uncertain but a corridor of
drier air is expected to develop west of Highway 75 by afternoon.
Resultant humidity values and sustained winds will raise grassland
fire weather concerns since this same region is the largest removed
from widespread wetting rains.

Winds relax on Monday as a weak cold front moves into NE OK.
Showers and isolated storms are likely along and north of the
boundary, however the lack of southward advance of the front will
limit the rainfall footprint into the local forecast area. Areas
northwest of Interstate 44 will have the higher rain chances,
however overall rainfall amounts are likely to remain light.

The boundary quickly loses influence as strong upper ridging builds
through the southern Plains and dominates the weather through mid
week. Dry weather and temps well above normal are expected. The
ridge may begin to break down toward the end of the week.
Uncertainty in the details remain, but at this time a low chance of
showers and storms is warranted by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR will continue to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours with FEW-SCT mid/high clouds. Winds remain light out of the
south to southeast this afternoon and into tonight. The surface
pressure gradient will increase mid-late morning on Sunday and
southerly winds will become breezy/gusty, especially across
northeast OK, with gusts around 20 knots into midday Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  89  68  82 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   62  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  89  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   59  89  65  78 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   58  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   62  88  67  84 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   62  85  66  80 /   0   0  10  20
F10   61  89  67  85 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   60  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67