402
FXUS64 KTSA 312349
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - Low to medium daily shower and thunderstorm chances and well below
   normal temperatures forecast through the Labor Day weekend.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider sheltering
   options and remain weather aware, with lightning and low
   potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late week will drop temperatures
   even further, maintaining well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Showers are ongoing at midday mainly across portions of northeast
Oklahoma along and northwest of I-44, within the mid level moisture
axis and nearest the upper level disturbance near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border evident on water vapor satellite. Additional
development has occurred late this morning farther southwest along
the mid level trough axis in central Oklahoma. Lightning is not
currently being observed with this activity, but the potential for
such should increase during the afternoon as instability increases.
Potential for shower and thunderstorm development farther east into
eastern Oklahoma and eventually, western Arkansas will increase
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening as the upper
level support shifts eastward. Locally heavy rain will remain the
primary threat with thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight given
the moisture content and slow storm motions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Northwest flow aloft will persist across the region through at least
the upcoming work week, leading to continued periods of showers and
thunderstorms and largely below normal temperatures. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm potential will continue into
Labor Day, with the primary axis shifting eastward with the moisture
axis. A cold front remains on track to move through the region from
late Monday into Tuesday as a strong upper level disturbance drops
southeastward through the Central Plains. The potential for showers
and thunderstorms will focus along the front, which should be slow
to clear southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday behind
the front. The post-frontal surface ridge will push south and east
of the area by Wednesday, allowing a return of southerly winds and
temperatures several degrees warmer in most spots than those on
Tuesday.

Attention then turns to the potential for a strong cold front
Wednesday night and into Thursday. Data remain generally consistent
in the idea of an upper low moving into the western Great Lakes
region, allowing colder air to move southward into the Central
United States. Given the location of the upper low, this air is most
likely to move into northern and eastern parts of the forecast area,
with a more southern intrusion more uncertain. EFI values for high
temperatures on Thursday are more in the -0.6 to -0.7 range into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, inspiring less confidence
in a noticeable cooldown than at this same time yesterday. The NBM
initialization for high temperatures on Thursday is very reasonable
for now, depicting mid and upper 70s north of I-40. Much like
yesterday, winds and wind gusts have been adjusted slightly upward
Wednesday night into Thursday with this front, using the NBM 75th
percentile for speeds and a blend of the 90th percentile with the
initialization for gusts. Low shower and thunderstorm chances
accompany the initial front, as well, mainly Wednesday night.

Uncertainty in the day-to-day details increases markedly after
Thursday, with several data sources still depicting a second push of
colder air in the Central United States late in the week into the
weekend before the Great Lakes low lifts too far to the northeast.
Moderate confidence exists that after a slight warm up on Friday,
another modest cooldown should occur, although the timing and
southward progression of such remains in less confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers will impact northeast AR terminals at the
beginning of the period as ongoing activity slowly moves east-
southeast. Earlier showers near KMLC will be moving out of the
vicinity shortly. Scattered convection is expected to redevelop
around 08Z across the region with an increase in coverage through
late morning. Kept PROB30 with MVFR visibility forecast during
the most likely period for impacts at each terminal based on
latest CAMs. Another round of showers and possibly storms are
expected late in the period as another shortwave trough approaches
the region. Northern OK and AR TAF sites appear most likely to be
impacted but with uncertainty in coverage and available
instability will leave to later forecasts to include SHRA/TSRA in
TAFs. Latest guidance continues to suggest low clouds will
develop and hang around northwest AR terminals after 18Z Monday so
added MVFR ceilings there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  83  65  78 /  40  30  30  10
FSM   69  83  66  83 /  20  30  40  40
MLC   67  83  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
BVO   63  81  60  78 /  50  40  40  10
FYV   63  80  61  79 /  30  40  40  40
BYV   64  79  61  78 /  30  40  40  40
MKO   67  82  64  79 /  40  30  30  20
MIO   65  79  61  78 /  40  50  40  20
F10   66  83  64  79 /  40  30  30  10
HHW   68  83  66  83 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24