938
FXUS64 KTSA 261335
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
835 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

 - Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through at least
   mid week. Expect daily heat headlines.

 - Low thunderstorm chances northwest of I-44 through mid morning.
   Strongest storms on the northwest fringes of the forecast area may
   cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

 - Low to medium thunderstorm chances from southeast Oklahoma into
   western Arkansas in association with an increase in moisture from
   the south both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Additional low
   thunderstorm chances mid to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Updated forecast to include a slight chance of showers through 15z
for areas roughly west of Highway 75 in northeast OK. Thus far,
updrafts have remained very transient and have not seen lightning
yet. Expectation remains that this activity will wane by mid to
late morning with additional development becoming focused across
SE OK this afternoon. Heat Advisory will continue for much of the
area this afternoon, and will monitor for any upgrades/expansion
through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Hot and humid will be the story again today across the region with
highs mainly in the mid 90s with another heat advisory in effect for
much of eastern Oklahoma into parts of western Arkansas. Increasing
tropical moisture over much of the area will bring dewpoints back up
areawide into the mid to upper 70s with will drive heat indices in
the 105 to 109 degree range this afternoon. Some locations,
especially across far eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
could hit warning criteria, but will hold off for short term trends
to be monitored by the next shift to see if a heat warning is
needed. The increasing moisture could also lead to some scattered
thunderstorms, mainly across southeast Oklahoma into west central
Arkansas with more spotty coverage elsewhere. The persistent
boundary near northeast Oklahoma could also spawn a few afternoon
showers of storms again mainly west of Highway 75, but will leave
PoPs below mentionable for now. The increased cloud cover over far
southeast Oklahoma seems to be enough to keep Pushmataha and Choctaw
Counties out of the Heat Advisory still at this time, but it will
still be muggy where it is not raining as well.

Any showers or storms should die off around sunset with mild
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in store once again.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Mid and upper level high pressure begins to build back westward on
Sunday through the middle part of next week. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday afternoon across
far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as tropical moisture
remains in place over the region. More subsidence on the backside of
the exiting tropical wide will likely limit coverage somewhat from
what is expected on Saturday, but at least slight chance PoPs will
be maintained through Sunday. As the ridge becomes centered over the
central CONUS through the first half of the week, the hottest
temperatures of the season so far will be possible across most of
the forecast area, with highs approaching the century mark in many
locations. Lingering humidity will allow for a continuation of heat
headlines through at least mid week as well. Precip chances will
diminish during this time as well.

Toward the latter part of the forecast late next week, the ridge
could begin to break down a little in response to a strong upper
trough moving through the Great Lakes Region. It remains to be seen
to what degree this impacts the high pressure over our area, but at
least a slight reduction in temperatures and some rain chances
return to the forecast through late week and next weekend. Some
guidance is less bullish on building the ridge well to our west and
continues to keep the center near the local region through the
forecast period which will mean a persistent forecast of hot and
humid conditions with less storm coverage through the period. We
will continue to monitor the trends for more agreement in the
extended as those times near.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No significant changes were made from the previous aviation
forecast package. VFR will continue to prevail at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Gulf moisture will push northward
into SE OK and W-Central AR this morning and there is some low
potential for brief, low (MVFR) cigs before noon, specifically at
MLC and FSM. If any cigs do develop this morning, they will
improve to VFR by or before noon. For this afternoon, there could
be few showers and thunderstorms that develop across SE OK and
W-Central AR. Continued to keep the mention of RA/TSRA out of the
TAFs due to low coverage and confidence.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  78  94  80 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   94  78  93  77 /  30  10  20   0
MLC   94  76  92  77 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   95  75  95  75 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   92  73  91  75 /  20  10  20   0
BYV   93  73  91  74 /  20  20  20   0
MKO   94  76  92  77 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   94  76  94  77 /  10  10  10   0
F10   95  76  93  77 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   91  75  92  76 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67