956
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday and
   Thursday, but the heat will return Friday.

 - Low rain chances develop by the end of the week.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A notably drier and "cooler" airmass continues to gradually spread
southwestward across the local area this morning, and will result
in a much more tolerable afternoon today. Dew points in a few low
elevation sites near the Red River remain stubborn to mix out and
a few mesonet sites have already reached 105 HI, but indications
are that the airmass change will eventually win out this afternoon
and those locations would only briefly meet advisory levels. No
heat headlines are planned for today as a result. Clear skies and
light winds will allow lows to fall into the upper 60s and low 70s
for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The reprieve from heat will continue Thursday with dry conditions
for the most part. However a few elevated showers or
thunderstorms moving across Kansas associated with a weak
disturbance may briefly build into areas near the border Thursday
morning. By Friday and Saturday, hotter and more humid conditions
begin to return courtesy of increasing south winds, but some
uncertainty remains as a more significant shortwave is expected
to top the upper ridge with higher confidence in a few showers and
thunderstorms developing across northeast OK and northwest AR
Friday into Friday night. As such, cloud cover may temper the
warm-up to some degree. At this point confidence in need for heat
headlines remains greater across western areas Saturday.

The heat looks to return in full force Sunday through at least
early next week, with triple-digit high temps becoming more
likely and heat headlines needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Mostly clear to scattered high clouds are anticipated this
afternoon and evening over the CWA. Late tonight into Thursday, an
increase in mid/high clouds are forecast with a disturbance
dropping southeast through Kansas. A slight chance of a
shower/storm could develop Thursday morning near the Kansas
border, but for now will keep KBVO dry at this time. Winds through
the period remain between northerly and easterly. VFR conditions
should persist through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  73  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   96  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   95  73  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   89  69  91  74 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   90  68  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   88  67  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   92  72  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   88  69  91  73 /   0   0  20   0
F10   91  71  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20