258
FXUS64 KTSA 242314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

  - Increasing thunderstorm coverage likely through the evening,
    extending into the overnight, mainly northeast Oklahoma and
    northwest Arkansas. Flooding threat will continue, in addition
    to severe weather concerns.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Widespread heavy rainfall footprint expected through Monday
    across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest/west central
    Arkansas. The holiday weekend will have many outdoor
    activities and the prolonged heavy rainfall potential may
    expose many to an increasing flood risk. Flood safety
    awareness remains a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The atmosphere across most of eastern Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas has largely recovered from the overnight and early
morning storms, with south to southeasterly winds having returned
to the area. Mesoanalysis indicates 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
across all except far northeast Oklahoma and much of northwest
Arkansas. Surface-based instability is also recovering, albeit
more slowly, with a local max extending eastward just south of the
Oklahoma/Kansas border. The higher surface-based instability
remains south of the surface front extending from northwest
Oklahoma southeastward into North Texas. At present, a few storms
have developed early this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma in
response low level warm advection within a weak low level jet this
afternoon. This isolated activity could be marginally severe at
times mid afternoon, with some potential for intensity to increase
late afternoon and evening. The northern portion of the forecast
area remains favored for the largest increase in storm coverage
this evening and overnight in response to a an increase in the low
level jet, the northward moving front and another mid- level
disturbance moving through the region. Large hail and damaging
winds will be favored with most storms, but given the presence of
the boundary, a localized tornado threat will also exist,
especially with storms that can remain discrete as several CAMs
depict.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a continued heavy rain
and flash flood threat will exist across most of the region. The
Flood Watch has been expanded southward into southeast Oklahoma,
encompassing all except Pushmataha and Choctaw counties. Rains
from this mornings storms totaled 1 to 3, locally 4, inches in
parts of Pittsburg, Haskell and Latimer counties, an area that was
already saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Storms will likely be ongoing across the region Sunday morning,
especially in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A further
expansion in the coverage should occur during the afternoon and
early evening hours along the surface front expected to extend
west to east across the forecast area. While flooding, large
hail, and damaging wind potential should continue to be the main
severe weather concerns, given the presence of the front, a low
tornado threat will exist as well. An expansive complex of storms
is expected to develop to the west during the overnight and into
Monday morning as a stronger disturbance pushes eastward, with a
continued heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat, focused
on damaging wind. Additional development Monday afternoon and into
Monday night should focus across southeastern portions of the
forecast area, with the front located in the vicinity of the Red
River.

The pattern will remain active with an upper low located in the
Upper Midwest leading to continued periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the middle to latter part of next week. At
this point, the severe weather and heavy rain potential does not
look as great as what we are currently dealing with. Expect near
to below normal temperatures through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Mainly quiet aviation weather is expected the next few hours,
although an isolated shower can`t totally be ruled out. By late
evening showers and thunderstorms will increase across eastern OK.
These storms will bring heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. Ceilings will begin to develop and lower as these
storms move in, down to 1-3 kft overnight. The showers and storms
will impact northwest Arkansas near or after midnight with similar
effects.

Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move through the
area through the end of the aviation forecast period. An attempt
at timing these for each location can be found in the TAFs but
confidence is low. The most important message to take away is that
multiple rounds of storms are expected over the next day.
Ceilings/Visibility will frequently be at MVFR category or lower.
There may be a break in the action for a few hours for the middle
of the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  79  63  74 /  70  80 100  80
FSM   66  83  66  77 /  50  80  90  90
MLC   70  87  65  79 /  30  50  90  90
BVO   64  76  59  71 /  80  70 100  80
FYV   63  77  61  74 /  70  80  90  90
BYV   61  76  57  67 /  70  70  90  90
MKO   66  81  64  74 /  50  80 100  90
MIO   63  76  60  70 /  80  70  90  90
F10   68  83  64  75 /  50  70 100  90
HHW   70  89  67  77 /  30  20  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06