387
FXUS64 KTSA 250037
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight thru Monday morning)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Winds have gusted to 40 mph in a few locations this morning into
the midday hours, but winds should gradually subside thru the
afternoon and evening as the gradient relaxes ahead of tonight`s
cold front. Speaking of the cold front, the boundary is entering
NW KS and is heading our way. The front likely enters NE OK around
midnight and then makes steady progress southeastward across the
remainder of E OK and NW AR into Monday morning. For gusts behind
the front, the HRRR wind gust forecast was used, suggesting 30-35
mph gust potential.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

An upper wave just off the West Coast will move quickly east
across the country this week, sliding over the central CONUS as
we approach Thanksgiving. A west to east band of light post-
frontal precip is forecast by the GFS and EC near and north of the
KS/MO borders Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. The GFS is farther
south and slower, while the EC is faster and mainly north of the
KS/MO borders. Ensemble cluster data from 00Z last night shows
basically equal chances of the former and latter solutions. With
the blended guidance (NBM) forecast below mentionable levels, it
is prudent at this point to at least insert a mention of precip
and thus have gone slight chance, like the previous shift. Thermal
profiles do cool enough during this time frame to justify a
rain/snow mix, which will be carried in the grids. There is no
accumulation or impact expected from this, regardless.

Colder temps will follow in the wake of this system for
Thanksgiving Day with some modification expected thru Saturday.
Indications are another stronger front is expected to plunge south
down the Plains by around Sunday, with the coldest temps seen in
quite some time expected behind this front. We`ll just have to
wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Winds will continue to diminish this evening, except for some
gusts around 20 knots for a few more hours across SE OK and NW AR.
Cold front will move into northeast OK with winds switching
around to N-NW before 06z, and eventually moving into west central
AR just after 12z Monday. Wind speeds will pick up behind the
front overnight with some gusts around 25 knots, and MVFR ceilings
become likely for several hours Monday morning, especially SE OK
and western AR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  52  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  62  35  58 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   49  59  31  59 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   40  51  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  58  26  57 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   51  57  29  55 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   47  56  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  55  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  63  36  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14