445
FXUS64 KTSA 070547
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 729 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

  - Scattered storms expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma
    Wednesday afternoon and spread into northwest Arkansas
    Wednesday night. These storms will be capable of producing
    large hail and locally damaging wind.

  - Spotty shower and isolated storm chances continue Thursday and
    Friday before clearing out Friday night. A fair weather
    weekend is in store.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly diminished for the time
being. Easterly wind continues behind the MCS, but gusts are
generally below 25 mph at this point. The going forecast appears
to be on track with showers and a few thunderstorms still expected
to redevelop late this evening and overnight but generally
remaining rather weak overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight thru Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

A band of rain and some embedded storms will shift east by
evening. With the threat for flash flooding ending behind this
precip, the intent is to cancel the flood watch early. There has
been hints in previous HRRR runs of some spotty wake low gusty
winds occurring behind the precip, much like what has occurred in
western OK earlier (40-45 mph gusts). However, recent mesonet obs
to our west have trended down with gust strength, so while winds
may still get gusty in spots behind the precip, it will probably
not be a big deal. There should be an increase in shower activity
tonight across NE OK in advance of upper low, with a few rumbles
of thunder possible.

As we head into Wednesday, the center of the upper low is expected
to track east along the KS/OK border region. The latest data
suggests that SBCAPE will develop over eastern OK as the colder
temps aloft spread over the region, especially where we get some
daytime heating. Scattered storms are forecast by the HRRR across
NE OK during the mid to late afternoon, potentially spreading
into NW AR Wednesday night. While the stronger flow will be
across southern OK, deep layer shear is sufficient to yield some
large hail and damaging wind threat with these storms.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The upper low will be centered over the MO Ozarks by Thursday.
Shower and isolated storm chances were maintained, especially in
the north and east closer to the low. The system shifts south and
west on Friday while gradually transitioning to an open wave.
The higher shower and isolated storm chances shift south and west
and then end by Friday night as the system drops down into the
ArkLaTex. The models today have trended toward the system cutting
off to our southeast this weekend. Thus, some low shower chances
were kept over parts of western AR on the back side of the system
thru Sunday. Warmer temps and dry weather are forecast for the
start of next week. A more active weather pattern could be in
store for the middle to latter part of next week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

In summary, a very complex and low-confidence aviation forecast
through the next 24 hours. Predominately MVFR ceilings/vsbys
occurring right now should gradually lower through the overnight/early
morning hours to IFR/LIFR. Some improvement should occur by mid-
late morning as boundary layer mixing tries to get going, lifting
ceilings to MVFR for most TAF sites. Isolated to scattered
showers and spotty thunderstorms are expected to persist through
much of the forecast period as an upper level low moves into the
region, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms becoming more
probable during the afternoon hours. Winds will stay light, but
veer through the morning, becoming southerly/southwesterly by late
morning or early afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  54  70  54 /  50  60  60  20
FSM   79  58  77  57 /  20  30  60  20
MLC   77  54  73  55 /  20  40  50  10
BVO   71  52  69  51 /  70  70  60  20
FYV   74  53  72  53 /  30  40  70  30
BYV   68  55  70  55 /  40  50  80  30
MKO   74  54  71  54 /  30  50  60  20
MIO   67  55  69  53 /  80  70  70  30
F10   74  54  70  54 /  30  50  60  20
HHW   75  56  74  56 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67