824
FXUS64 KTSA 102253
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Dangerous heat ongoing with heat advisory through this
  afternoon. Slightly cooler temps tomorrow through mid week.

 - Unsettled period tonight through Tuesday with periodic higher
  thunderstorm coverage time frames. Locally heavy rains likely
  along with a few severe storms.

 - Temperatures will rise back to near average for this time of
   year during the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Hot and humid conditions ongoing with increasing instability
south of the stalled frontal zone which currently extends from NW
OK into east central KS. Isolated afternoon storms may develop
within the higher terrain corridor of SE OK through NW AR,
otherwise the focus will increasing be the aforementioned boundary
for late afternoon through evening storms. Initial development
would likely be north of the forecast area but congealing outflows
may push additional storm development into the OK / KS border
region. Storms will also have developed across the High Plains by
this evening and will spread eastward overnight. Ample instability
will remain in place along with a strengthening low level jet /
approaching mid level trough axis to maintain storms into the
forecast area with highest chances north of Highway 412. Expect
locally heavy rainfall to occur through tonight primarily favoring
areas near the OK / KS border. Recent dry conditions and expected
localized nature of the heaviest totals lower confidence in
widespread flooding concerns but this will be monitored with later
forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Shower and storms will likely be ongoing Monday morning with a
gradual weakening with time. The residual composite outflow /
frontal zone will again become a focus for renewed storms by
Monday afternoon with the corridor more aligned across the local
forecast area. Expect additional locally heavy rains and downburst
wind potential. Temps will be slightly cooler than recent days.

Weak but persistent troughing remains extended through the
southern Plains on Tuesday while flow aloft weakens. Expectation
is another round of scattered storms with slow storm motions
allowing for locally heavy rains. This scenario may continue
Wednesday into Thursday with a slow eastward progression of the
higher storm coverage as heights gradually build from the west.
The trend toward a drier and warmer pattern will carry into late
week by which time hot and humid conditions typical of mid August
will return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Scattered showers and storms will increase the next few hours
across northeast OK. The most likely location will be near KBVO,
with a more marginal threat for the Tulsa area. These storms may
produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, and strong erratic
winds. Ceilings may develop, but mostly above MVFR criteria, but
visibility could briefly be reduced to 2-4 SM under stronger
storms. The threat of storms will continue at times overnight,
particularly near dawn tomorrow. Model guidance shows a general
threat of storms continuing during the day, but with high
uncertainty in when it will occur. There is a slight signal for
another round late in the afternoon tomorrow, so PROB30s were
added for many airports at that time. Winds will mostly remain out
of the south through the period at 5-15 kts except near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  94  73  91 /  30  40  40  40
FSM   75  97  74  96 /  10  20  20  40
MLC   75  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
BVO   71  91  69  90 /  50  50  50  40
FYV   70  93  69  91 /  20  30  20  50
BYV   71  93  69  93 /  20  30  20  50
MKO   74  95  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
MIO   72  93  70  91 /  40  50  50  50
F10   72  94  71  92 /  20  30  30  30
HHW   73  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-054>062-
     064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06