059
FXUS64 KTSA 051127
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

   - Rain and storm chances will exist most days of this
     forecast, including this weekend into much of next week. Some
     periods will have higher chances than others, and will
     depend on the location of boundaries and timing of waves
     aloft moving across the region on the eastern side of what
     will be a strong subtropical ridge over the Southwest.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a front possible by
     the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An MCS over western KS, aided by an ejecting s/wv trough, is
expected to weaken by the time it reaches NE OK, according to the
HRRR. The HRRR isn`t always right though, so have inserted a
slight chance mention around daybreak mainly to the north and west
of Tulsa. If an MCS survives into our area, then a more pronounced
outflow boundary could become a focus for afternoon storms. As of
right now, that`s uncertain and not reflected in the forecast.
Used CONSRaw for PoP guidance Sat afternoon, with the best
chances over NW AR where showers and storms have been occurring
the past couple days and in the moisture plume over south-central
OK possibly skirting SE OK.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The s/wv trough sliding by to our north will eventually force a
front south down into central/southern KS by Sunday afternoon. The
CAMs have scattered storms developing near this boundary during
the afternoon, with the best coverage over NE OK into NW AR. A
boundary, likely outflow, will drop south into OK and AR on
Monday, providing a focus for more showers and storms. An upper
wave wrapping around the subtropical ridge to our west will bring
another window for higher rain/storm chances toward the middle of
the week. We`ll likely see a relative lull in the action behind
this wave Thursday and possibly into Friday before another system
dives in from the north/northwest. Afternoon highs will climb into
the low to mid 90s during this time, with heat indices in the
upper 90s to near 100. This is still below headline levels, and
could be worse. The next system and associated front look to
arrive by next weekend, with rain/storm chances and relatively
cooler temps.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

There may be a brief period of MVFR cigs this morning across E OK
sites, but otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail for
all sites through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected again through the daylight
hours... particularly during the afternoon and early evening.
Highest precip chances are across NE OK and NW AR, but the
probability of impacts at any one site are still below 30%. As a
result, opted not to include in TAFs at this time and amend as
needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  91  72 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  10  30  20
MLC   91  72  90  72 /  10  10  30  10
BVO   90  71  90  70 /  20  20  40  20
FYV   91  71  89  70 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   91  71  90  70 /  20  20  50  20
MKO   91  73  89  72 /  10  10  30  20
MIO   90  72  90  70 /  20  20  50  20
F10   89  71  88  70 /  10  10  30  10
HHW   91  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43