342
FXUS64 KTSA 210512
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Near average temperatures and drier conditions through the
weekend.

 - Medium rain chances (30-50%) enter the forecast early next week,
along with well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Upper level ridging will begin to build back closer to the local
region today and into the first part of the weekend, allowing mainly
hot and dry weather to persist for the next several days. A few
isolated to widely scattered storms will still be possible both
early this morning and again this afternoon across portions of far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on the periphery of the
building ridge. Severe weather is not expected, but some brief
downpours and breezy winds could accompany any storms today.
Temperatures will top out near to slightly above normal in the low
to mid 90s for most locations this afternoon. A slightly drier
airmass should hold most places under any heat advisory criteria
however, with no headlines planned for today.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The center of the ridge will remain just west of the area keeping
temps from getting too hot, but a couple more hot and mostly dry
days are in store on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances will be lower
those two days as the ridge axis moves overhead. A strong upper
trough will then dig across the Great Lakes Region by Saturday. This
trough will push a strong cold front through the region on Sunday,
with much cooler conditions expected in its wake through much of the
next week. In addition, a modest northwest flow regime will develop
aloft over the Plains through the better part of next week as well.
Various disturbances moving through the flow will bring the
potential for daily MCS activity in the vicinity beginning Monday
night through the rest of the forecast. Details will still need to
be worked out on timing and placement of heaviest rain as it gets
closer. Monday night into Tuesday looks like the best chance right
now for widespread showers/storms and the coolest temperatures
areawide.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on the storm activity on any
given day across the area. Days with more cloud cover and rain will
likely see temps staying in the 70s or possibly 60s, where days with
more sunshine will likely warm into the 80s. Will leave the middle
ground NBM temps as is right now until the storm systems come into
better view. Nevertheless, much cooler temperatures are on the way
for the end of August.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions will largely continue through the forecast period.
Patchy early morning fog primarily across far NW AR could produce
brief flight level impacts. Also, isolated afternoon storms may
develop but coverage is expected to be very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   96  72  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  69  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   94  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   92  65  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   91  64  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   93  69  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   93  66  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
F10   92  68  92  66 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   92  71  92  69 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07