305
FNUS73 KTOP 181921
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Wildfire...City of Herington FD
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 CDT on October 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

South winds gusting near 30MPH continue through the afternoon
before relaxing after sunset to 5-10MPH. Relative humidity values
hold in the 25-30 percent range through sunset and slowly recover
to near 50 percent by sunrise Saturday. Winds become south-
southwesterly on Saturday, although will be much lighter with
sustained winds of 10-15MPH. Relative humidity values fall to near
30 percent Saturday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........76 at forecast start...Max 76.
RH..................28 percent at forecast start...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 16 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise South winds 16 to 17 mph with
                    gusts to around 26 mph.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 4100
                    ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /89400 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /103000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0
Temp............76  75  73
RH..............28  31  31
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  17  17
20 FT wind gust.26  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 4.1 3.7
Haines index....4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100089  103 89

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
Temp............72  68  63  60  60  58  57  57  55  54  53  52
RH..............33  36  43  46  44  44  42  42  45  47  47  50
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..15  12  12  12  12  11  10  9   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.23  21  22  20  18  15  14  14  12  12  11  9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100026  14  9   8   9   8   7   7   7   7   6   6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............51  51  50  53  58  62  65  69  72  73  75  74
RH..............54  54  58  54  46  41  37  33  31  31  31  33
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.9   8   8   12  14  14  15  15  14  14  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   6   7   10  18  22  31  39  43  46  48  29

$$
Forecaster...Flanagan
Requested by...Andrew Avantagiato
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424418.0/TOP
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL firechief@cityofherington.com