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FNUS73 KTOP 031041
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Jefferson EM Controlled Burn...County Emergency Management
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Friday through Saturday morning, it is still expected that
showers will occur across the burn area. Generally, around a half
to one inch of precipitation may fall over the area before
ending into Saturday afternoon as the system exits the region.
Northerly winds are also expected to be strong on Saturday with
gusts to around 25-30 mph. Sunday is still looking dry with winds
decreasing.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
                    morning, then slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 48.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    28 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3700 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /25400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /81400 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............43  43  43  43  43  43  43  44  45  46  46
RH..............86  85  84  82  81  79  76  71  65  60  56
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..13  13  15  15  16  17  17  17  17  16  15
20 FT wind gust.25  25  26  26  27  28  28  28  28  27  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.5
SDspl kt-ft/100025  31  38  46  54  62  69  77  81  81  78

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the evening and overnight. Slight chance of
                    snow showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in
                    the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        20        20
Temp............46        42        39        36
RH..............53        53        56        59
20 FT wind dir..N         N         N         N
20 FT wind spd..13        11        9         8
20 FT wind gust.25        21        19        15
Mix hgt (ft)....3100      1200      500       500
SDspl kt-ft/100070        21        8         6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers
                    early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (60700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20        0         0         0
Temp............32        37        47        54
RH..............66        61        46        38
20 FT wind dir..N         N         NW        NW
20 FT wind spd..5         6         7         6
20 FT wind gust.13        14        14        14
Mix hgt (ft)....200       2000      4000      5800
SDspl kt-ft/10002         27        49        61

$$
Forecaster...Drake
Requested by...Keith Jeffers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508357.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kjeffers@jfcountyks.com