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FNUS73 KTOP 301328
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SPOT FORECAST for WOEM Rx Fire...Kansas Forest Service
National Weather Service Topeka KS
828 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on September 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast is dominated by a mid-evening cold front passage that
will result in conditions opposite of most days. Winds will be
light from the south during the day, peaking only at 5-10 mph. RH
drops to around 30 percent by mid-afternoon. As the cold front
passes through around 8 or 9 PM, much drier air will move in,
dropping RH to around 25 to 28 percent by midnight. There is some
potential RH could be even lower, around 20 percent. Winds will
quickly become northerly behind the front and notably stronger,
sustained around 15 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. Winds gradually
weaken throughout the day Tuesday but RH stays in the 20 to 40
percent range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........74 at ignition...Max 88.
RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph late in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /19600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /27900 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............74  80  84  86  86  87  87
RH..............57  45  37  34  32  30  30
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  S   SW
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.14  12  11  8   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.2
Haines index....5   4   4   4   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100020  27  28  23  24  26  21

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Min 26 percent. Max 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming north 8 to 16 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  81  76  72  70  68  66  65  63  61  59  57
RH..............30  34  40  44  32  28  27  26  27  29  32  35
20 FT wind dir..SW  SE  E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   2   4   8   12  13  16  15  16  15  15  13
20 FT wind gust.6   3   5   13  22  22  25  23  25  25  25  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100010  2   2   4   9   9   9   8   9   9   8   8

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (62300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............56  55  54  57  59  63  65  68  69  70  71  69
RH..............38  40  41  38  36  31  28  25  24  22  21  23
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..12  11  10  11  13  12  11  9   8   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.22  20  20  23  22  20  19  14  14  12  11  8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.1
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10008   7   17  42  55  62  61  59  53  46  40  24

$$
Forecaster...Reese
Requested by...Dennis Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423254.0/TOP
.DELDT 09/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dcarlson@ksu.edu