039
FNUS73 KTOP 170248
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Wildfire NE of Tescott...Ottawa County Fire Dept
National Weather Service Topeka KS
948 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Winds should remain from the south into Thursday. The winds may
gradually increase through the early morning. But the winds will
become gusty between 9 and 10am from the south. Winds are forecast
to be strong through the day Thursday, gusting to near 40 mph as
RH values fall into the middle 20 percent range.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south winds 9 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /5900 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  62  56  50  48  47  46  45  44  45  45  46  46
RH..............22  23  27  36  37  38  40  41  43  42  41  40  40
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  15  9   9   10  10  10  10  11  11  11  12  12
20 FT wind gust.20  22  12  12  14  14  14  14  14  15  16  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100067  25  8   6   7   6   7   7   7   7   7   8   8

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Breezy. South winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 27 mph increasing to 23 to 27 mph with
                    gusts to around 36 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (87400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............46     46     56     66     73     77
RH..............40     43     34     29     27     26
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..13     15     23     27     27     26
20 FT wind gust.19     22     34     36     36     34
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    1600   2200   2700   3100
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      6
SDspl kt-ft/10008      11     45     60     73     86

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 17 to 22 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (60700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (10500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............73        64        60        56
RH..............28        38        41        43
20 FT wind dir..S         S         S         S
20 FT wind spd..22        20        18        18
20 FT wind gust.30        27        25        26
Mix hgt (ft)....2300      600       500       500
Haines index....6         6         5         4
SDspl kt-ft/100061        14        11        11

$$
Forecaster...Wolters
Requested by...Cody Flax
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424331.0/TOP
.DELDT 10/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL codyjflax@gmail.com