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FNUS73 KTOP 040957
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Jefferson EM Controlled Burn...County Emergency Management
National Weather Service Topeka KS
457 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Rain across the burn area through the day today into Saturday
morning before the system exits the region into Saturday
afternoon. Cool temperatures for Saturday in the 40s for highs.
MinRH values expected to range from 30-40%. Northerly winds are
expected to be strong on Saturday with gusts to around 25-30 mph.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
                    Slight chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........41 at ignition...Max 48.
RH..................82 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 15 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    29 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3800 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /34000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /88100 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............41  39  39  40  40  42  43  44  46  47  47
RH..............82  82  79  70  67  60  55  53  47  44  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..15  16  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.26  28  29  29  29  29  29  29  29  29  28
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.1
SDspl kt-ft/100034  48  56  59  60  66  76  81  85  88  68

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers in the evening
                    and overnight. Slight chance of snow showers
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 30.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (47600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        20        20
Temp............46        41        37        34
RH..............43        50        54        61
20 FT wind dir..N         N         N         N
20 FT wind spd..13        11        10        9
20 FT wind gust.26        23        20        18
Mix hgt (ft)....2400      900       400       400
SDspl kt-ft/100048        13        6         5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers
                    early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 53.
RH..................Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (51100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     PCLDY     PCLDY     MCLEAR
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20        10        10        0
Temp............32        36        43        51
RH..............63        59        49        39
20 FT wind dir..N         N         N         N
20 FT wind spd..7         7         7         7
20 FT wind gust.15        14        14        14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      3600      5200
SDspl kt-ft/10005         21        41        51

$$
Forecaster...Drake
Requested by...Keith Jeffers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508357.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kjeffers@jfcountyks.com