Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
055
FGUS73 KTOP 132145
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-
197-201-140000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.
...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next
three months...
Outlook:
The probability of flooding through mid-May is near normal across
the NWS Topeka HSA.
The highest chances of minor flooding during the outlook period
range from 40 to nearly 70 percent and include the following
locations: Big Blue River at Blue Rapids, Mill Creek at Washington,
Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Salt Creek at Lyndon, and the
Marias Des Cygnes River from River from near Reading through Quenemo.
Spring flooding is not expected to be caused, or enhanced by melting
snow. Flooding which does develop will be driven by heavy rain
producing thunderstorms which typically occur during the spring
months.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation was observed
roughly along a line from near Topeka to Hiawatha. Precipitation
totals ranged from 1 to 1.75 inches within this region with percent
of normal values between 125 and 175 percent. Many areas further
west and south received below normal precipitation with the driest
region occurring near Emporia which observed 50 percent of normal
precipitation.
For the past 90-day period, normal to above normal precipitation
was common generally along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor.
A few locations within this region received in excess of four inches
of precipitation which was roughly 130 percent of normal. Far
southern areas of the NWS Topeka HSA received below normal
precipitation with percent of normal values below 80 percent.
During the past 30 days, below normal temperatures affected the
entire HSA. Daily averaged temperatures ranged from the middle to
upper 20s. These values were one to four degrees below normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that all locations within
the NWS Topeka HSA are experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions. In addition, roughly 30 percent of the HSA is affected
by moderate drought.
Current snowpack across the HSA and southern Nebraska generally
contains between two and three tenths of an inch of liquid
equivalent.
USGS 7-day averaged streamflow values across the region indicate
above normal streamflow conditions across the Marias Des Cygnes and
Neosho Basins. Below normal streamflow is observed across the
Republican, Solomon, and Kansas Basin upstream of Topeka.
Future Conditions:
Over the next 7 days, around a quarter inch of liquid precipitation
is forecast across the Topeka HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern slightly
favored for below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through April. There is no clear
signal regarding temperature for the local area. The region is
between an area slightly favored for below normal temperatures
across Nebraska and a favored area of above normal temperatures
across southern Oklahoma. The outlook indicates a favored area of
below normal precipitation across the western half of Kansas with
above normal conditions the eastern two-thirds of Missouri.
The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 27, 2025.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 42 27 33 18 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 20 25 5 8 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 66 52 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 69 49 5 5 <5 <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 15 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 22 32 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 15 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 10 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 9 17 7 13 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 16 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 16 20 <5 5 <5 <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 36 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 6 6 5 5 <5 <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 12 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 11 15 5 6 <5 <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 9 5 6 <5 <5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 20 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 14 21 9 16 <5 <5
Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 7 13 <5 12 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 36 49 33 37 <5 <5
:Saline River
Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 31 24 23 19 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 15 16 7 9 <5 <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 25 37 23 34 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 45 47 43 46 <5 <5
Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 50 49 28 29 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 40 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 37 43 9 9 <5 <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 30 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 16 16 11 11 <5 <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 8 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 27 26 16 13 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 16 9 15 9 <5 <5
Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 28 18 25 16 <5 <5
Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 6 8 6 8 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 17.7 19.3 21.0 24.3 28.6 30.8 34.7
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 3.1 3.8 5.2 6.8 10.0 12.7 18.5
:Mill Creek
Washington 6.9 8.5 12.0 16.4 20.5 22.0 22.2
:Little Blue River
Barnes 6.3 6.8 9.2 12.7 15.4 18.7 23.8
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 18.9 20.5 23.2 27.6 32.3 34.4 42.5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 12.0 15.9 18.0 22.9 24.5 26.8 27.6
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 6.3 6.4 8.8 12.1 16.4 21.3 22.1
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 7.3 8.1 10.5 12.8 19.5 31.8 32.7
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.1 3.5 6.2 9.1 15.7 24.6 25.5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 6.3 7.2 9.3 11.2 14.9 20.7 23.8
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.9 6.8 12.8 19.8
:Kansas River
Manhattan 6.9 7.5 8.8 10.6 14.5 18.9 21.6
Wamego 4.8 6.3 7.8 10.4 14.3 16.7 18.4
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 4.9 5.7 9.4 11.7 16.2 20.2 23.5
:Rock Creek
Louisville 9.7 9.9 11.1 13.7 17.8 21.8 23.7
:Kansas River
Belvue 7.7 8.8 9.8 12.1 14.9 17.8 18.7
:Cross Creek
Rossville 12.5 13.1 15.1 18.2 22.0 23.6 25.3
:Mill Creek
Paxico 5.4 5.9 7.8 10.6 24.3 27.7 28.5
:Kansas River
Topeka 8.3 9.8 11.8 15.1 19.9 24.3 27.2
:Soldier Creek
Delia 8.1 8.6 13.0 17.7 22.6 24.2 26.0
Topeka 4.2 6.1 7.8 10.8 15.6 20.6 22.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton 5.9 7.1 8.1 11.6 15.5 17.6 20.0
Lawrence 9.8 10.6 11.4 14.0 16.6 18.1 20.4
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 5.9 6.1 8.5 13.0 17.2 21.2 22.6
:Republican River
Scandia 0.9 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 8.3 12.1
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.6 12.1 16.4 17.6
:Republican River
Concordia 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.9 8.6 11.7 13.7
:Elk Creek
Clyde 5.0 5.1 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.7 7.8
:Republican River
Clay Center 7.9 8.0 10.0 12.7 14.9 15.5 17.1
:Solomon River
Glasco 4.1 4.2 4.7 9.2 17.7 24.7 25.2
Minneapolis 2.6 2.7 3.4 7.2 16.7 19.7 20.7
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.5 4.7 5.2 7.0 11.8 17.5 18.7
:Solomon River
Niles 5.5 6.1 8.6 16.7 28.9 29.3 29.7
:Saline River
Tescott 6.4 7.1 8.7 14.7 28.1 30.5 31.5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 6.5 8.0 12.7 16.9 22.3 28.5 30.6
:Mud Creek
Abilene 2.6 3.0 4.6 6.5 9.9 14.3 15.1
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 9.3 10.3 14.7 18.4 25.9 30.4 33.8
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 4.8 6.5 10.0 17.3 23.4 24.3 24.9
Quenemo 5.0 6.6 10.2 16.9 25.1 28.0 29.7
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 2.1 3.0 5.8 8.7 11.9 14.2 15.2
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 8.9 12.6 15.8 23.8 32.0 32.8 34.7
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 9.4 14.0 18.8 22.3 26.2 27.5 28.6
Lane 7.3 8.6 10.9 16.6 21.5 24.5 25.4
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 4.2 5.5 7.7 12.3 16.3 20.5 21.9
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 3.4 6.3 8.7 12.8 21.0 26.0 26.4
:Neosho River
Americus 5.0 5.5 7.7 10.7 16.8 24.6 26.2
Emporia 10.3 10.5 11.6 12.9 15.8 21.5 23.8
Neosho Rapids 5.7 7.1 8.8 15.4 23.0 26.8 29.4
Burlington 9.2 10.3 12.1 17.6 23.0 23.5 24.1
Leroy 6.0 8.2 10.5 17.1 19.5 20.2 24.0
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 12.7 12.6 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
:Mill Creek
Washington 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Little Blue River
Barnes 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.1
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Kansas River
Manhattan 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.1
Wamego 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Rock Creek
Louisville 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5
:Kansas River
Belvue 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1
:Cross Creek
Rossville 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0
:Mill Creek
Paxico 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
:Kansas River
Topeka 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9
:Soldier Creek
Delia 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5
Lawrence 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Republican River
Scandia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Republican River
Concordia 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Republican River
Clay Center 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6
:Solomon River
Glasco 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
Minneapolis 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Solomon River
Niles 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
:Saline River
Tescott 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Quenemo 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1
Lane 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s National Water Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW