


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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354 FXUS63 KTOP 180938 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 438 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings issued with extreme fire danger today and tomorrow. Warm, dry, and windy conditions. - Strong cold front Tuesday night brings strong winds and snow chances Wednesday. A few inches of snow and brief blizzard conditions likely across far north-central KS. Little to no accumulation farther southeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 An amplified upper trough was located across the Southwestern US with an upstream upper level ridge across the eastern Plains. A sfc lee cyclone was deepening across the eastern CO. Today: We will see one more warm day with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Southerly wind will increase through the morning and into the evening 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH. The winds will be stronger along and southeast of I-35, so I have issued a wind advisory from 8 am through 4 am WED. Tonight through Wednesday: The amplified upper trough across the southwest us will lift northeast across KS late Tonight, then into IA Wednesday afternoon. The H5 trough will continue to deepen as if lifts northeast across the central Plains. CAA on the back side of the upper low will push southeast across the area through the early morning hours. The deformation zone on the northwest and west side of the H5 low will shift Northwest across the western counties. As temperatures fall into the 30s, the light rain will change to snow from west to east across north central and northeast KS through the morning hours. Within the deformation zone, strong frontogenesis and CI, perhaps CSI, along with a deep dendritic growth zone will produce a band of heavy snow that will track northeast across Cloud, Republic and Washington counties. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hours for a total snow accumulations across the northwest counties of 2 to 5 inches of snow. The sfc lee cyclone across southeast CO will deepen as the surface low shifts northeast across the CWA. The strong pressure gradient will increase northwest winds to 30 to 40 MPH with some gusts to 50 and 60 MPH. This will cause blizzard conditions from 6 AM through Noon across the northwest counties. I`ve issued a winter weather advisory where snow amounts could be 1 to 2 inches with some near blizzard conditions given the strong 45 to 60 mph wind gusts. The remainder of the northeast and east central KS will see less than one inch of snow accumulations. There may only be a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain across the southeast counties during the morning hours of Wednesday. As the deepening surface low moves northeast into northwest MO and southern IA, the pressure gradient will increase across all of north central and northeast KS causing winds to increase to 30 to 40 MPH with wind gust of 50 to 60 MPH. Therefore a high wind warning will be in effect from 4 AM through 7 PM Wednesday. A wind advisory will be in effect from 4 AM through 7 PM Wednesday across east central KS with wind gusts of 40 to 55 MPH. The extended forecast: The upper air pattern will become more zonal with some weak H5 troughs moving across the Plains on Friday and Sunday night brining a slight chance for showers. Highs will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A low-level jet at around 1200 feet will increase from 35 KTS to 45 KTS during the morning hours, while southeast winds will remain under 10KTS through 10Z to 12Z. Therefore, expect low-level wind shear through 12Z to 13Z. After 13Z southerly winds will increase to 12 KTS to 15 KTS with gusts of 23 to 26 KTS. Winds will increase a bit late in the afternoon and remain strong this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Increasing wind speeds through the day of 20 to 30 MPH withe wind gusts of 30 to 45 MPH into the overnight hours will cause an extreme fire danger. RHs will increase after 8 PM but the southerly wind will remain strong. Given storing wind gusts, minnimum RHs 18 percent across much of the CWA with 20 to 29 percent across east central KS, and very dry and cured fuels, expect a critical fire weather environment where grass fires may turn into large wild fires. Even though RHs will be much higher on Wednesday, very strong northwest winds may rekindle some smoldering grass fires. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ020. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ026- KSZ039. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Gargan