166
FXUS63 KTOP 180521
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Fire Danger today, Very High Fire Danger Friday. Outdoor
burning is not advised as it may lead to erratic fire behavior.

- Temperatures remain above average for the next week with highs in
the 70s.

- Rain chances return for most Monday (40-60%) with some small
  chances for light precipitation Friday night into Saturday AM
  (30% across north-central and central Kansas)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

A very windy and dry afternoon continues today, creating extreme
fire weather conditions across a large portion of the central US.
Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic field, an upper-level
ridge is situated over the Mississippi valley with a digging trough
axis over the upper-mountain west and another low near the I-95
corridor. Pressure gradients across Kansas remain tight as a
deepening cyclone on the lee of the Rockies continues to deepen
ahead of the approaching trough. This has helped to keep the BL very
well mixed, aiding in temperatures reaching the low 70s by 2 PM this
afternoon. Extreme burning conditions will exist into this evening
before winds weaken a bit and RH values increase. See the Fire
Weather discussion below for further details on today and Friday`s
Fire Weather concerns.

By tonight, well-mixed BLs should keep overnight temperatures on the
warmer side, bottoming out in the upper 40s. With pressure gradients
remaining tight through the day Friday, expect another afternoon of
very gusty winds and elevated fire danger concerns. During the day
Friday, the western upper low will dig south towards the 4-corners
region, becoming cutoff from the northern jet stream. Low-level
moisture advection should continue across the high Plains Friday
into Saturday as PVA ahead of the cutoff low pushes into west and
central Kansas. Slight PoPs continue across western portions of our
CWA, but with majority of low-level moisture and lift staying west
of the area, do not have confidence that most of the area will see
any measurable precipitation if at all Friday into Saturday. Expect
temperatures to remain nice for this time of year, topping out in
the mid to upper 70s Friday through Sunday.

The cutoff low remains near-stationary until Monday before
southwesterly flow increases to its west and helps it eject into the
central Plains. This should increase widespread precipitation
chances Monday into Tuesday (40-60%) with areas hopefully getting
some much needed rainfall. Deterministic guidance at this point hint
at rainfall totals Monday ranging from a few hundredths to half an
inch. Beyond Monday, upper-level ridging builds into the central US
once again, continuing the above-average temperatures for this time
of year with minimal chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with southerly wind.
Occasional gusts are possible through the night, but a
decoupled boundary layer is favored with surface wind generally
around 10 knots and wind just a few thousand feet off the
surface around 40 knots. Breezy southerly wind at the surface
and aloft will continue through the day tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

This afternoon has seen RH values approach 20% with winds sustained
between 15-20 mph and gusting upwards of 35-40 mph with a Red Flag
Warning in effect until 8 PM this evening. Tight pressure gradients
are expected to persist the remainder of the day, but can expect to
see a slight drop off in wind speeds around sunset this evening,
decreasing winds to 10-12 mph and gusts to 20-22 mph. With the BL
remaining fairly mixed overnight, RH values will be slow to recover
above 40% this evening, possibly not until 1 AM Friday morning. With
these conditions expected to continue through 7-8 PM this evening,
erratic fire behavior will be anticipated with any fires, making
them difficult to control and very likely to spread. Outdoor burning
will not be permitted.

By Friday, very high fire danger will become realized by the
afternoon as similar windy conditions return to the area. Expect
sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. On a
positive note, moisture advection during the day should help
mitigate RH values from dropping much lower than 25 percent during
peak heating hours. This should help limit large fire spread a bit,
but winds will still make containing and controlling fires extremely
difficult. Winds will decrease around sunset Friday evening with RH
values recovering above 40% by 10 PM to midnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Jones
FIRE WEATHER...Reese