788
FXUS63 KTOP 040537
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated non-severe storms in western portions of the area may
last into the early evening hours.

- Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected Thursday through the
weekend. The entire area has at least a 50% chance of seeing at
least 1" by Monday morning, with potential for some areas to see 2-
3".

- Thursday and Friday could bring a few strong to severe storms with
hail and gusty winds as the main hazards.

- Temperatures hold fairly steady through the forecast period with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper ridging continues to dominate the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys, which is blocking the multiple shortwave troughs noted
across western North America. One upper low is situated over
southern Saskatchewan, one is off the coast of British Columbia, and
yet another is spinning off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Closer
to home, a weak mid-level low has been circulating in the TX/OK
panhandle vicinity. All of this is leading to weak flow aloft in our
area. We have similar thermodynamics in place today compared to
yesterday with an uncapped environment and a moist and unstable air
mass. As such, there appears to be just enough sfc convergence
through Ottawa, Dickinson, and Morris Counties for a few
thunderstorms to develop. With little to no shear, severe weather is
not expected as storms should pulse up and down. They probably won`t
be in a hurry to move very far very quickly either, so can`t rule
out some locally heavy rainfall with these storms. This activity
should wane into the evening with the loss of instability.

As the weak mid-level low nearby makes its way into western KS
tonight, a batch of showers and storms should move across the
western part of the state through the overnight hours. It`s
uncertain how much of this will make it through our area Thursday
morning, but have maintained low-end PoPs to account for that
possibility during that time frame. Storm chances increase Thursday
afternoon and evening as mid-level lift increases with the passing
wave, especially for areas north of I-70. Shear looks somewhat
better, but respectable (around 25-30 kts) with 2000-3000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Given the increase in shear, there could be a few stronger
updrafts to support marginally severe storms with this round, mainly
for hail and wind. With skinny CAPE profiles and Pwat values
approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology,
torrential rainfall and flooding may be the bigger concern. The 12z
HREF highlights areas north of I-70 as most likely to receive the
heaviest rain. Some of these locations have a 50-70% chance of at
least 1" from this round alone, with the mean rainfall total being 1-
2". Isolated spots could receive as much as 3-5" based on the 90th
percentile. An early look at CAM guidance suggests these storms
should move out by sunrise Friday.

The bulk of the daytime hours Friday look dry before a weak frontal
boundary looks to set off another round of storms Friday night into
early Saturday. Friday has similar instability and shear compared to
Thursday, so similar hazards are in place with any stronger
updrafts, but again locally heavy rainfall could be the bigger
issue, especially if these areas are already well saturated from the
previous day. Another break in the activity should take place
Saturday morning and afternoon before the next round. The upper wave
currently off the Mexican coast should be coming out of Texas by
this point and lifting northeast through Sunday, leading to some
uncertainty on the timing of any breaks Saturday night through
Sunday, but generally speaking PoPs increase into Sunday with the
wave overhead. Lift should decrease heading into Monday as the
trough axis passes east. The latest LREF continues to show the
entire area likely to receive at least 1" of rainfall by Monday
morning, with the 90th percentile indicating potential for 2-3" area-
wide. If shorter-range guidance is any indication, even locally
higher amounts would be possible if the same areas receive repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall.

Forecast temperatures hold fairly steady for the next several days
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s -- just a gradual increase
each day into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms overnight, with some associated
MVFR ceilings, should stay west of KMHK, but become more widespread
tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weak low approaches. Still
uncertainty on exact timing and placement, so will stick with a
prob30 group for now. Ceilings look mainly VFR, but could see some
scattered pockets of MVFR ceilings for a brief time mid-day. Winds
become southerly during the day at around 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Reese