040
FXUS63 KTOP 221059
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
559 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nice day today with temperatures trending down into the weekend as
rain and storm chances increase.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Friday evening.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
main hazards.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances persist through
  Memorial Day weekend. Some areas across far east-central and
  southeastern KS could see a few inches of rainfall leading to
  localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

07z mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows northwesterly
flow settling over much of the central US, a weak embedded wave
moving into the Ozarks, weak ridging developing across the southwest
US, and a weak wave making landfall in the PNW. Across Kansas, the
passage of the embedded wave has kept some isolated/scattered high-
based showers across Kansas, continuing to be fueled by broad 700 mb
frontogenesis. Scattered mid-level clouds will continue to filter in
from the northwest this morning and into the afternoon as the weak
wave continues its push southeast. Surface ridging will be expected
to move in behind the wave this afternoon, keeping skies mostly
sunny and weak winds mainly prevailing out of the north/northeast.
Temperatures this afternoon under these conditions will likely top
out in the low to mid 70s.

Dry weather begins to come to an end heading into Friday with the
first of several systems moving into the area. Lee cyclogenesis
deepens a surface low across eastern Colorado Friday morning,
increasing southerly moisture advection across Kansas. A warm front
should begin to develop across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma
through the day as the mid-level vorticity maximum advects over
Kansas by the afternoon/evening. Showers and elevated thunderstorms
should begin to develop across western and central Kansas by mid
Friday morning, pushing east into the afternoon. This should be
aided by a LLJ overrunning the warm front across south-central KS.
Given 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear, MUCAPE of 600-1000 J/kg and
modest ML lapse rates, a few thunderstorms that do move into
northeastern Kansas could be strong to marginally severe with hail
being the main concerns. A damaging wind gust could become realized
as a dry microburst or two could become possible given the high-
based structure of convection. That said, severe concerns with
storms will be fairly low and isolated in nature with better chances
further west. Highest precipitation totals and chances by Saturday
morning look to follow the nose of the LLJ that tracks across
southeastern KS and northeast OK. With LREF PWATs ranging from 1.25-
1.5" south of I-35, efficient rainfall rates could be seen south of
I-70/I-35.

A brief lull in precipitation may come mid-day Saturday before the
next mid-level wave moves in later in the afternoon and evening.
With northward moisture advection ushering in widespread PWAT values
in the 1.5" range and isentropic ascent increasing north of a
developing LLJ Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, efficient
showers and embedded thunderstorms look likely again. A few
thunderstorms could be stronger to marginally severe given the
elevated instability and decent shear aloft, but main concern will
be the localized heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. Again, the
best ascent should stay across southeastern Kansas, so higher
rainfall totals will likely reside south of I-35 again with QPF
totals decreasing as one heads towards north-central KS. The last
push of precipitation chances come Sunday evening into Monday
morning. Overall QPF totals from Friday through Monday will range
from 1-1.25" north of I-70 to 1.5-4 inches from I-70 towards east-
central and southeastern Kansas respectively. Precipitation chances
should begin to dwindle beyond Monday as mid-level ridging builds
over the central Plains. There may be a few weak embedded waves that
pass through northwesterly flow, but overall confidence in
widespread precipitation this far out remains low. Given the rain
over the weekend, temperatures will not be overly warm, only topping
out in the 60s Saturday through Monday. Tuesday may see some 70s
return, but that will largely depend on how quickly clouds can move
out of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

TAFs remain VFR as some mid level clouds filter overhead with
light northerly winds building across the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer