998
FXUS63 KTOP 241901
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
201 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible(20-40%) Tuesday late afternoon
  and more likely evening for portions of north central Kansas.
  Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard followed by small hail.

- Gradual pattern change leads to drier conditions and warming
  temperatures into the middle and upper 90s late this week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Weakening, embedded shortwave troughs are traversing through the
Midwest this afternoon while upper ridging is stagnant in the
southwest CONUS. Clearing skies and slightly better BL mixing has
warmed temps into the upper 80s this afternoon.  Cannot rule out
some patchy fog developing in low lying areas towards far eastern
Kansas early tomorrow morning, however increasing high clouds may
mitigate it from being a larger impact.

Focus on the short term turns to another embedded perturbation
sliding into Nebraska by late afternoon Tuesday. Latest CAM guidance
remains somewhat varied on the location and timing of a developing
MCS by early evening, ranging from northwest KS to our forecast area
in north central Kansas. Ample heating amid MUCAPE approaching 4000
J/KG and DCAPE near 1000 J/KG suggests any storms that are able to
develop a decent cold pool will be capable of damaging wind gusts.
Effective bulk shear is weak around 20 kts so the large hail threat
is minimal as storms enter KS. The LLJ is not particularly strong
overnight to sustain severe storms and would anticipate an overall
weakening trend through Wednesday morning.

Extended period becomes calmer in terms of precipitation chances as
height rises spread east through the central plains by the weekend.
Sfc high pressure gradually slides east Friday as a sfc low begins
to deepen in western Kansas, increasing southerly flow and warm
advection to northeast Kansas in time for the weekend. Minimal
spread among ensembles gives medium to high confidence for highs to
reach the middle and upper 90s Saturday/Sunday. Will need to monitor
heat index trends as forecast dewpoints near 70 degrees translate to
apparent temps around 100 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR at terminals with easterly winds near 10 kts sustained this
afternoon becoming light aft 00Z. High clouds are expected to
increase from the northwest aft 09Z, as forecast soundings are
hinting at low lying stratus or patchy fog developing. KTOP would
most likely see this aft 09Z if extensive high clouds can hold off.
Additionally, I would like to see more consistency in models before
including in the TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22