917
FXUS63 KTOP 240535
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers end by late this afternoon. Showers and
  thunderstorms become more prevalent late tonight though severe
  weather is not likely.

- Warmer for much of the week with periodic chances for more showers
  and thunderstorms.

- Even warmer conditions possible next weekend with heat indices
  possibly reaching 100 degrees again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure centered over western Missouri has allowed for
a drier lower troposphere today. Showers and a few thunderstorms
moving east out of central portions of Nebraska and Kansas have
struggled to maintain themselves and this should be the rule through
late afternoon, with very little if any rain accumulation. An
advancing shortwave over south-central Canada tonight produces modest
low-level warm air advection in eastern Kansas late tonight to
support more precipitation. MUCAPE will be greater than today, though
still likely less than 1000 J/kg with high storm bases and modest
flow to limit effective shear despite northwest flow aloft bringing
some veering with height. Gusty winds, most likely sub-severe,
should be the main convective concern. Some isolated heavier rainfall
can`t be ruled out in this regime either with high freezing levels
and precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. The most likely
location for storms looks to be in east-central Kansas after midnight
to around dawn though CAMs are showing some variability. Monday
should see clearing conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures.

The northwest flow regime stays in place through the bulk of this
forecast period, bringing occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms as weak waves traverse the flow. The next best chance
looks to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night then again around Friday
but confidence is fairly low in when and where any precip will be.
Can`t rule out any severe weather or locally heavy rain but again
nothing stands out for any particular threat at any one time. The
pattern flattens a bit this weekend and may serve to bring stronger
south to southwest low-level flow for warmer and more uncomfortable
conditions. EPS guidance continues to show the stronger positive
850 mb temperature anomalies during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The main challenge this period is whether storms will impact
terminals and when. Model inconsistencies are keeping confidence
fairly low, but chances remain around 30 percent Monday morning. Have
continued the PROB30 and TEMPO groups for the most likely timeframe
of TS. Otherwise, skies will clear and winds will increase to near 10
kts from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Teefey