421
FXUS63 KTOP 301106
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Staying warm through the weekend, with highs still in the 80s.

- Low rain chances (~20%) return late weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Upper ridging centered over the Midwest remains the key feature this
morning, keeping warm and dry conditions in place across the region.
We are seeing a few more clouds this morning though, associated with
mid-level lift ahead of an old upper low that is now a decaying
trough axis over the Souther Plains. Wouldn`t be completely shocked
if there were a few brief sprinkles toward central Kansas later
tonight, but a deep layer of dry air below the mid-level clouds
should generally keep any rain from reaching the ground. Otherwise,
the only impact will be for afternoon temperatures just a degree or
two cooler than yesterday wherever thicker cloud cover persists.

Upper ridging expands back over the area later Wednesday and into
Friday, as the initial weak shortwave fully fizzles out and stronger
upper troughing moves inland over the West Coast. This will see a
return of sunnier conditions, allowing temperatures to rise into the
mid/upper 80s each day. South winds steadily increase, especially by
Saturday as the western trough moves over the Rockies and lee
troughing strengthens to our west. Morning lows will also warm into
the weekend as overnight winds stay more elevated.

By Saturday night and into Sunday, the upper trough over the western
CONUS will lift northeastward onto the Plains. Current guidance
keeps the core of this system (and thus the better height falls and
vorticity advection) well to our north. So the best rain
chances will stay north as well. Still, the system will push a
weakening cold front towards our area Sunday into Monday, which
could still be enough for a few scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms. Ahead of this front, there is high confidence in
warmth continuing through Sunday. However by the end of the
forecast period early next week, guidance quickly diverges on
how to handle the strengthening mid- level jet, particularly a
pair of shortwaves dropping southeast around a Gulf of Alaska
ridge. This leads to much lower confidence in temperatures and
rain chances for the end of the forecast period and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

There has been enough of a hole in the high clouds over
eastern KS that shallow fog has once again managed to develop in the
river valleys. This should quickly clear by 13z, leaving behind
light southeast winds and VFR conditions for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese