354
FXUS63 KTOP 180938
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
438 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings issued with extreme fire danger today and
tomorrow. Warm, dry, and windy conditions.

- Strong cold front Tuesday night brings strong winds and snow
chances Wednesday. A few inches of snow and brief blizzard
conditions likely across far north-central KS. Little to no
accumulation farther southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

An amplified upper trough was located across the Southwestern US
with an upstream upper level ridge across the eastern Plains. A sfc
lee cyclone was deepening across the eastern CO.

Today:

We will see one more warm day with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Southerly wind will increase through the morning and into the
evening 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH. The winds will be
stronger along and southeast of I-35, so I have issued a wind
advisory from 8 am through 4 am WED.

Tonight through Wednesday:

The amplified upper trough across the southwest us will lift
northeast across KS late Tonight, then into IA Wednesday
afternoon. The H5 trough will continue to deepen as if lifts
northeast across the central Plains. CAA on the back side of the
upper low will push southeast across the area through the early
morning hours. The deformation zone on the northwest and west
side of the H5 low will shift Northwest across the western
counties. As temperatures fall into the 30s, the light rain will
change to snow from west to east across north central and
northeast KS through the morning hours. Within the deformation
zone, strong frontogenesis and CI, perhaps CSI, along with a
deep dendritic growth zone will produce a band of heavy snow
that will track northeast across Cloud, Republic and Washington
counties. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hours for a total
snow accumulations across the northwest counties of 2 to 5
inches of snow. The sfc lee cyclone across southeast CO will
deepen as the surface low shifts northeast across the CWA. The
strong pressure gradient will increase northwest winds to 30 to
40 MPH with some gusts to 50 and 60 MPH. This will cause
blizzard conditions from 6 AM through Noon across the northwest
counties. I`ve issued a winter weather advisory where snow
amounts could be 1 to 2 inches with some near blizzard
conditions given the strong 45 to 60 mph wind gusts. The
remainder of the northeast and east central KS will see less
than one inch of snow accumulations. There may only be a few
snow flakes mixed in with the rain across the southeast counties
during the morning hours of Wednesday.

As the deepening surface low moves northeast into northwest MO and
southern IA, the pressure gradient will increase across all of north
central and northeast KS causing winds to increase to 30 to 40 MPH
with wind gust of 50 to 60 MPH. Therefore a high wind warning
will be in effect from 4 AM through 7 PM Wednesday. A wind
advisory will be in effect from 4 AM through 7 PM Wednesday
across east central KS with wind gusts of 40 to 55 MPH.

The extended forecast:

The upper air pattern will become more zonal with some weak H5
troughs moving across the Plains on Friday and Sunday night brining
a slight chance for showers. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A low-level jet
at around 1200 feet will increase from 35 KTS to 45 KTS during
the morning hours, while southeast winds will remain under
10KTS through 10Z to 12Z. Therefore, expect low-level wind shear
through 12Z to 13Z. After 13Z southerly winds will increase to
12 KTS to 15 KTS with gusts of 23 to 26 KTS. Winds will increase
a bit late in the afternoon and remain strong this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Increasing wind speeds through the day of 20 to 30 MPH withe
wind gusts of 30 to 45 MPH into the overnight hours will cause
an extreme fire danger. RHs will increase after 8 PM but the
southerly wind will remain strong. Given storing wind gusts,
minnimum RHs 18 percent across much of the CWA with 20 to 29
percent across east central KS, and very dry and cured fuels,
expect a critical fire weather environment where grass fires
may turn into large wild fires.

Even though RHs will be much higher on Wednesday, very strong
northwest winds may rekindle some smoldering grass fires.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Blizzard Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ026-
KSZ039.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for
KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan