783
FXUS63 KTOP 280420
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1020 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmest day of the week comes Wednesday before another cold shot
of air enters Thursday and into the weekend.

- Slight chances for light snow return Thursday and Friday as
  well as Saturday night, but confidence is low in any
  accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Another quiet and chilly afternoon is underway today as surface
ridging settles in from the north. Other than some high cloud cover
moving in from the west, ample solar insolation has pushed
temperatures into the mid to upper 20s across the area. Safe to
expect temperatures to warm a few degrees further this afternoon
with some across southern areas of the CWA topping out around
freezing. The `warm` weather continues into Wednesday as weak lobes
of vorticity advect over the central Rockies, deepening a lee
cyclone over eastern Colorado. Pressure gradients gradually tighten
in response during the day Wednesday, returning winds back to the
southwest and promoting modest WAA by the afternoon. Afternoon high
temperatures Wednesday under the WAA regime and ample sunshine
should top out in the mid to upper 30s, possibly some low 40s across
north-central KS.

The warmer air does not last long as the lee cyclone that has
deepened across eastern Colorado ejects southeast into the panhandle
of Oklahoma in response to a compact shortwave pushing into the
central Rockies. Cold air filters in on the north side of this
surface low through the day Thursday, dropping high temperatures
back into the 20s. Some weak low-level lift may become realized as
the 850mb low passes through central KS Thursday morning that could
squeeze out some flurries/snow, but with forecast soundings
depicting very dry 850-700mb air, opted to keep PoPs low. Profiles
do not saturate in the low to mid levels until later Thursday
afternoon and into Friday morning as a secondary wave in the
northwesterly flow ejects into the central Plains. The passage of
the second wave may provide enough lift to squeeze out some light
snow showers across far northern Kansas, but overall confidence
remains low in anything widespread at this time, thus, continued with
small area of 15-25% PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning.

CAA continues for Friday and Saturday as highs top out in the upper
teens both afternoon with lows Saturday morning dropping back below
0 degrees. Windchills Saturday morning may approach -10 to -15
degrees so will need to monitor for the need of any Cold Weather
Advisory headlines. Another wave passes over the region Saturday
night that could again yield some snow showers across the area. PoPs
at this time remain in the 20-30% range as long range ensemble
guidance depicts a 30-50% chance of northeast Kansas seeing
measurable snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Forecast soundings continue to show any boundary layer moisture
to be very shallow and struggle to saturate the boundary layer.
So will keep a VFR forecast with just some high clouds
increasing into Wednesday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Wolters