529
FXUS63 KTOP 051658
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers overspread the area this morning with continued chances
for rain showers into Wednesday.

- Gradually warming up again towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this morning shows
two upper troughs coming into phase with one another over the
central Plains, one from the southwestern US and the other from the
northern Plains and northern Rockies. The upper level wave has
pushed a surface low across southern Kansas with a frontal boundary
pushing south into southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few elevated
storms continue to percolate near the 850mb cyclone and baroclinic
zone early this morning with small hail being the main hazard. As
the front sinks further south into southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma, elevated instability will shift further south ending
chances for deep convection. By sunrise this morning, mid-level lift
increases as PVA overspreads much of Kansas. Scattered to widespread
rain showers will continue through the morning and into the
afternoon. Another wave of PVA associated with the slow moving upper-
level trough enters central and eastern Kansas by this evening and
into Wednesday morning ushering in more widespread showers. Mid-
level and low-level lift begin to wane by Wednesday afternoon
helping to push precipitation south and east of the area. The cloudy
and rainy conditions today into Wednesday will keep afternoon temps
on the cool side - topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A gradual warm up begins Thursday as mid-level heights increase and
low level flow returns from the south/southwest. Temperatures return
to the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday with mostly dry conditions
through Saturday afternoon. By late Saturday afternoon and into
early Sunday morning, a wave moving out of the PNW ejects off the
central Rockies and acts to push a surface cyclone and boundary
across eastern Kansas. Deterministic guidance hints at decent
moisture return ahead of the surface cyclone so some instability and
shear may be available for stronger storms to be possible. That
said, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty with the timing of
the system so will continue to monitor changes in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Occasional perturbations within the pattern is expected to bring
occasional -SHRA to the terminals. CAMs show a break in the precip
into the early evening. Otherwise models prog conditions to remain
steady state with CIGs around 10 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Wolters