395
FXUS63 KTOP 141741
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures remain well above normal values more with
  low 90s across much of the area today. Mostly 80s expected
  through the upcoming weekend.

- A more active weather pattern takes shape especially by the
  end of this weekend. Could see storm chances to include severe
  weather increase by Sunday into Monday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The upper air pattern across the CONUS features a pair of upper
level low pressure systems with one filling over the Ohio
Valley into the Appalachian region. Another upper level trough
continues to deepen and advance east into the Intermountain West
region. Subtropical moisture is streaming across the Baja
region across northern Mexico into the southern Plains per
latest WV imagery. A weak area of low pressure near the surface
associated with lee toughing remains over western into north
central Oklahoma region. Low level flow with deeper moisture has
advected north with the highest dewpoints into eastern Oklahoma
down into Texas and the Gulf coast. Low 60 degree dewpoints
have reached eastern and southeastern Kansas with a weak to
moderately strong LLJ in place.

For today, expect increased WAA as the western CONUS trough lifts
into the northern Plains helping to push temperatures across the
area into the low 90s which will be near or possibly record breaking
for some spots and certainly a more common July feel to the air. The
focus for large scale forcing and best ascent this afternoon and
evening will be displaced north of the region but the southern
periphery and the base of the trough may provide enough lift to see
a few showers develop along the KS/NE state line over north central
areas where the EML may be more shallow and deeply mixed by late
this afternoon and evening. Much of the area should see a dry
frontal passage into this evening and overnight so have maintained a
dry forecast per the majority of guidance and NBM. Nonetheless, may
be a brief window to see a few showers developing again over
northern areas.

Mainly quasi-zonal flow looks to set up across the area into the
early part of the weekend. This should favor little change to the
forecast for the latter part of the week. Therefore, temperatures in
the 80s and mainly dry conditions remain until Sunday with high
probabilities before the next Pacific low pressure system deepens
over the western CONUS and advances into the central Plains Sunday
into early next week.

As the Pacific system deepens and lead shortwave lift into the
central Plains, overnight Saturday into early Sunday could begin to
see showers and storms associated with the isentropic ascent ahead
of the system

Uncertain about details but chances increase for potential storms
into later day Sunday as shear and instability increase across the
region. The higher probabilities for severe weather more directly
impacting the area look to be on Monday with cluster analysis, CIPS
and CSU machine learning probabilities suggesting the potential for
severe storms across the region. If the Pacific system does emerge
from the central Rockies as forecast, then deeper theta-e air
combined with sufficient shear would favor more active weather for
this period and the likely highest impact over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR prevails with diurnal cu around 4kft this afternoon,
expected to dissipate leading up to sunset. SE winds around 12
kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts should also diminish with
sunset. A weak cold front passes through the area overnight into
early morning, shifting winds to the WSW and eventually west
with gusts picking up late in the period. There may be a 2-3
hour window overnight prior to fropa when some LLWS could
develop, but confidence was not high enough to introduce a
mention in the TAFs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025


Record High Temperature for May 14

              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka 95 (2013) 90
Concordia95 (1899) 91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Reese