742
FXUS63 KTOP 110848
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
348 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Strong storm system arrives Friday. Windy conditions and increased
fire danger, with a low chance (20%) for a weak thunderstorm or two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Broad upper ridging is still in place over the south-central CONUS
this morning, with zonal flow displaced over the northern tier
states. Farther south are two cut-off upper lows, one over the West
Coast and one over the East Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front
is pushing south towards the area, and will pass through over the
course of this morning. Temperatures behind the front will be
generally 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still well above
average for mid-March. Pressure rises behind the front will lead to
briefly gusty winds this morning, but by the afternoon winds should
gradually weaken. The West Coast upper low passes well to our south
Wednesday into Thursday. The only impacts to us from this system
will be an increase of high clouds, with temperatures still climbing
into the 70s both days.

By Friday, a much stronger and negatively tilted trough will quickly
approach from the west. Low pressure over western Kansas will deepen
to below 980 mb, within 5-10 mb of monthly MSLP records. As the
cyclone deepens, strong low-level flow will develop ahead of a
Pacific cold front that overtakes an initial dryline. Fortunately,
Wednesday`s system will initially limit moisture advection. Some
moisture will eventually get into far eastern Kansas, so a few
showers or weak thunderstorms are still possible Friday
afternoon. However the deeper moisture and main severe
thunderstorm risk areas will stay well to our east and
southeast. The main impacts to our area will come behind the
Pacific front as a wedge of very dry air is advected from the
southwest ahead of the surface low. Winds will likely (50-80
percent) exceed 40 mph across much of east-central Kansas. The
exact area of the driest and windiest conditions will depend on
the eventual position of the low, but regardless it will lead to
conditions very favorable for fire spread. See Fire Weather
section for more information on this. Some light precipitation
may sneak into north-central KS behind the low, but temperatures
look to stay warm enough for all rain. Highs do at least return
to near average for the weekend though, with breezy conditions
continuing on the back side of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southwest
surface winds will remain in the 13 to 16 KTS range with gusts
of 20 to 28 KTS through the early evening hours but the gusts
should diminish through the night. A low-level jet of 45 KTS at
1500 feet will provide low-level wind shear, especially when
winds drop off below 10 KTS after 6Z TUE. A weak front will
shift winds to the northeast during the mid and late morning
hours of Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Lighter winds and slightly improved RH will lead to lesser fire
danger today through Thursday. By Friday, a strong area of low
pressure will move across Kansas. Behind a Pacific cold front, a
narrow corridor of very dry and windy conditions will move in from
the south ahead of the low. Winds will start off from the
south/southwest, before becoming northwesterly during the evening
behind a cold front. The exact winds and humidity will depend on the
position of the surface low, but areas of very high to locally
extreme conditions are likely (75%). At this time southern and
western portions of the forecast area (i.e. Flint Hills) are
where the worst conditions are most probable. Colder conditions
arrive for Saturday behind the front, but continued dry and
breezy conditions with elevated fire danger are likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese