026
FXUS63 KTOP 132324
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming up into weekend. Heat index values reach
  100-105 degrees Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Surface high pressure has been in control of the region today, but
is sliding east into the Upper Midwest, allowing for southerly low-
level flow to return. Temperatures have warmed quickly through the
day in response to the southerly flow and mostly sunny skies and
highs will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. There is a low
chance (10%) for an isolated shower or two to develop through
sunset, but a lack of forcing and deep moisture will likely preclude
any development. Low-level winds remain elevated overnight and
should preclude fog development, although low-lying areas could
still see some patchy fog into Thursday morning.

Mid-level ridging builds overhead Thursday through the end of the
week, allowing for gradually warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs reach back into the mid and upper 90s Friday
through the weekend. Humidity remains high with dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s creating heat index values of 100-105. A Heat
Advisory may be needed. For Monday into the middle of next week,
guidance is favoring the mid-level ridge retrograding with north-
northwest flow aloft taking control of the central CONUS. Timing of
the ridge`s retrogradation remains varied amongst guidance and hot
and humid conditions may linger into Monday and possibly Tuesday.
Eventually, north-northwest flow does gain control of the Central
Plains and will bring chances for precipitation along with near-
normal temperatures back to the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Mostly clear skies and modest southeasterly to southerly
winds will continue through the period. Can`t rule out some minor
mist/fog again towards sunrise tomorrow, but the ingredients for
fog are more limited compared to this past morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese