478
FXUS63 KTOP 160909
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures return to well above normal early this week with some
  record warmth possible.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday afternoon.

- Elevated fire danger is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Low precipitation chances return late this week alongside near
  normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad
upper trough across the the eastern Pacific off the US west coast. A
downstream upper level ridge was located across the southern and
central Plains. An upper level trough was located along the east
coast of the US.

The 7Z surface map showed a lee surface trough across eastern CO,
extending southward into northeast NM. Winds were southerly across
the CWA, with slightly stronger winds speeds in the 15 to 20 MPH
range across north central KS. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
40s, with some lower 50 degree readings across north central KS.

Today through Tuesday:

The H5 trough across the eastern Pacific will move onshore across
the the western US. The southern stream section of the H5 trough
across southern CA will lift northeast across CO into western NE and
SD on Tuesday. The lee trough axis/Pacific front will shift
east into western KS Tuesday afternoon.

Look for a nice warm up with southerly winds this afternoon,
that will help high temperatures to warm into the mid to upper
60s, with some 70 degree readings across the south central and
southwest counties of the CWA.

Tuesday will be windy ahead of the surface trough axis/Pacific
front across western KS. Winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH
with some gusts up to 45 MPH during the afternoon hours. Strong
low-level WAA will help high temperatures to reach the mid to
upper 70s in most areas. The far southeast counties may only see
highs in the lower 70s, if the PBL does not mix as deep, due to
residual moisture advection.

Tuesday night through Thursday:

Tuesday night, the main H5 trough will move onshore across southern
CA. the H5 trough across NE/SD will shift northeast into MN. The
stronger ascent will occur well northeast of the CWA across northeast
NE into IA and MN. A Pacific cold front will move east across the
area late Tuesday night. Winds will become westerly and a drier
airmass will spread across the CWA.

Wednesday, winds will become light westerly, as the lee surface
trough deepens across eastern CO during the afternoon hours. By
late afternoon winds will become southwesterly to south but will
probably remain under 10 KTS during the late afternoon hours.
Highs will only be slight cooler, with mid 60s north and upper
60s to around 70 south. The southern CA H5 trough will shift
east into the Four Corners Region by 00Z THU.

Thursday, the H5 trough will lift northeast across eastern CO into
northwest KS, then into south central NE. Once again the
stronger ascent will be north of the CWA across NE. The lee
surface low will move eastward along the KS/NE border. Several
numerical models have shown the surface low taking slightly
farther south, across the northern counties of the CWA.
Southerly surface winds in the morning will veer to the
southwest and west by afternoon. A surface cold front will push
southward behind the surface low and move southeast across the
CWA during the mid and late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the
cold front across east central KS will reach the lower to mid
60s. Highs behind the front across north central KS will only
reach the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday night through Monday:

The extended range models have similar solutions. The GFS looks to
be more amplified with a longer wave length H5 trough across
east central US Over the weekend. The GFS shows more low-level
CAA Sunday into Monday.

The H5 trough across south central NE will shift northeast into
southern IA and amplify. The northeast counties may see some wrap
around showers late Thursday night. These showers may mix with snow
and before ending, may change all to snow. I`m not expecting any
accumulations across northeast KS.

All the extended range models show an H5 trough digging southeast
out central Canada Saturday and amplifying across the Great Lakes
States Sunday morning and forming an amplified H5 trough across the
eastern US. The GFS model is most amplified with the eastern US
H5 trough.

Expect cooler temperatures to end the week and through the weekend.
Highs will be in the 40s, which is near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions still expected. Will need to monitor surface to
low-level winds over the next several hours for potential LLWS
with some speeds going calm in recent hours. Moderate south-
southwest winds with some gusts should become the norm by 16Z
and diminish with diurnal trends around 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated at 303 AM CST MON Feb 16 2026

Tuesday:

Expect extreme to very high fire danger Tuesday afternoon
across northeast KS. A fire weather watch has been issued from
12 noon to 7 pm Tuesday.

South-southwest surface winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with
gusts of 30 to 40 MPH during the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Deeper
mixing of the Planetary Boundary Layer will offset residual
moisture, allowing minimum RHs to drop to 20 to 30 percent across
the western half of the CWA. The eastern half of the CWA will see
minimum RHs in the 30 to 44 percent range. If we get a mid and high
level overcast, then the boundary layer may not mix as deep. The
GFDI fire wx guidance shows pockets greater than 50 percent across
much of the CWA. Tuesday afternoon may provide an environment for
wildfires, based more on the strong wind gusts then RHs under 20
percent.

Wednesday:

The airmass across the CWA will be drier but winds will be light at
5 to 15 MPH from the west into the early afternoon hours and
then become southwesterly during the late afternoon hours but
wind speeds may remain under 10 KTS. Minimum RHs will will be in
the 18 to 22 percent range. If the winds are stronger then
forecast Wednesday afternoon, then Wednesday afternoon could be
a critical fire weather day.


Thursday:

There`s a lot of uncertainty in a track of a surface low across
the central Plains on Thursday. If the sfc low tracks east
along the NE border, then winds may increase to 15 to 25 MPH
with gusts to 35 MPH from the southwest and west during the
afternoon hours, before a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Northwest winds will still be gusty but cooler temperatures
will increase minimum RHs during the afternoon hours. If the
surface low tracks east along I- 70, then the air mass across
the northern counties will be cooler with east to northeast
winds and there may just be a small window of southwest to
westerly winds that may gusts up to 30 MPH across the south
central and southeast counties of the CWA. However, the wind
shifts through the day may make fires difficult to control even
if extreme or very high fire danger is not met.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan