115
FXUS63 KTOP 222314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact the area Friday
  through Memorial Day. The potential for heavy rainfall and
  flooding increase during this timeframe, especially across
  east-central Kansas.

- Strong to severe storms are possible through this period as
  well, but the overall severe potential remains on the low
  end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Northwest flow aloft resides across the Central Plains this
afternoon with shortwave ridging over the Rockies. The surface ridge
axis has slid south into the area, leading to a dry and pleasant day
across northeast Kansas with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mid-level cloud cover may produce a few
sprinkles or a shower across the area this afternoon, but dry low-
level air should keep any sprinkles/showers isolated in nature.

An unsettled pattern sets up for the holiday weekend as the western
ridge breaks down and several waves of energy eject across the
Plains. The first in these series of waves comes during the day
Friday, sparking showers and storms across western and central
Kansas Friday morning that will progress into eastern Kansas during
late morning into the afternoon. The activity shifts south and east
of the area by Friday evening before the low-level jet ramps up,
pumping moisture over the aforementioned warm front and leading to
additional showers and storms Friday night into Saturday. The nose
of the LLJ will be positioned somewhere between the KS/OK stateline
and Interstate 70 and will be the favored location for training
storms and an increased flooding potential, especially given storm
motions are perpendicular to the LLJ axis. With the warm front well
to the south near the KS/OK stateline, storms through the day and
overnight will be elevated in nature, but steepening mid-level lapse
rates Friday evening and overnight along with elongated hodographs
could support a few severe storms. Isolated storms will pose a large
hail and damaging wind gust threat while the higher risk for severe
weather would be realized if storms are able to congeal into a line
or bowing segment, increasing the risk for damaging wind gusts along
the leading edge. CAMs are inconsistent in showing this potential,
and confidence in this scenario is low at this time.

A break in precipitation is possible Saturday morning into the
afternoon before a couple more waves move through the area over the
weekend. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage
Saturday evening into Sunday morning and again Sunday
afternoon/evening into Monday morning as the LLJ strengthens. Severe
potential is low overall through this timeframe, but sufficient
MUCAPE and shear will be present to support some stronger updrafts
capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds.
Within each round, storm motions will be perpendicular to the LLJ
orientation, favoring some training of convection. The nose of
the LLJ looks to be focused more over southern Kansas Saturday
and Sunday nights, which may keep the highest chances for
flooding south of the local area. Even so, several rounds of
rainfall over the same areas could lead to locally heavy
rainfall and flooding. Precipitation totals through the weekend
will vary from near 0.5" along the KS/NE state to 2-4" along and
south of the Interstate 35 corridor. The main axis of heavy
rainfall looks to remain across southern Kansas into southeast
Missouri, but there is still some variability in location of
this axis. Confidence is too low to issue a Flood Watch at this
time, but one may be needed if the signal increases for heavier
rainfall to reach into east central Kansas.

Rain may linger into Memorial Day with models varying on how fast
conditions dry out. Dry conditions are favored to return on Tuesday
before low chances of rain return mid-week. Temperatures will remain
below-normal for late May with highs mainly in the 60s Friday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions should dominate with a dry lower troposphere in
place. Isolated high-based showers should be ending shortly with
drier air working in the mid levels. Moisture increases enough
with the next upper wave to support some chance for
precipitation late in this forecast. Have gone ahead with PROB30
for showers at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Poage