753
FXUS63 KTOP 231112
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible early today mainly south
  of Interstate 70.

- Highs in the 70s common from Sunday through late next week
  with wet periods possible around Monday and late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Early morning convection in portions of north-central Kansas has
diminished in intensity but looks to have generated a weak MCV. As
this vortex is ushered southeast on northwest flow aloft, it will be
close to the cold front as it pushes south across eastern Kansas
early today. Have increased morning precipitation chances but will
be monitoring trends. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and limited shear
should keep severe weather chances low. Much of the area should be
dry by midday with clearing skies. Modest cold-air advection should
still allow for highs in the lower to middle 80s. CAA continues into
Sunday with increasing mid cloud downstream of modest mid level
isentropic upglide for cooler temperatures. Precipitation chances
should stay low and limited to western areas where moisture is
deeper, but spread farther east Sunday night into Monday as a weak
upper wave moves through central and eastern Kansas. Highs Monday
may struggle to break 70 especially in the south but guidance is
showing some larger spreads in temperatures.

Some moderation in temperatures remains on track for at least
Tuesday but a potentially wet period comes Wednesday night into at
least Thursday night. Details are far from certain with the track of
the next wave responsible for this precipitation with considerable
variability among recent deterministic models. Instability
continues to look meager but above normal precipitable water values
could support some heavy rainfall totals over this prolonged period.
Temps would drop back in the wetter scenarios but there is a cluster
of GEFS models that bring highs back into the mid to upper 80s.
Uncertainty in how the latter periods of the forecast will play out
is high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should
steadily diminish early in the forecast. Coverage supports VCSH
at TOP and FOE with activity ending around 12Z at MHK. A few
locations in the region have seen limiting ceilings but this
looks to be the exception. North to northeast winds take hold by
16Z and diminish as high pressure builds in late in this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage