026
FXUS63 KTOP 042320
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through the day (10-30% chance
isolated storms) with slightly better storm chances overnight.

- Scattered storms may redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening (30-
60% chance) with isolated damaging wind and heavy rain possible.

- Low rain chances remain through much of next week.

- Temperatures remain near average for early July for the next
  several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

As of 19Z, a shortwave trough is over the Pacific Northwest while
broader ascent can be seen across the Northern and Central Plains
within subtle perturbations aloft. Moisture has been advecting north
from TX, and the axis of deeper moisture is located in west central
KS. This is also where some agitated cumulus is noted on satellite
imagery and a few thunderstorms have developed. Moisture should
continue to stream northward through this afternoon with the axis
slowly moving east across the area this evening and into the
overnight hours. Expect that most isolated showers/storms this
afternoon into the early evening should remain to our west, although
CAMs do still show some spotty activity in the western half of our
area. Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak across the board, so
wouldn`t expect anything to last long if it gets going at all.

CAMs continue to show a broken line or clusters of storms developing
in western NE/KS this evening and moving east towards our area
overnight. They look to fall apart as they do so due to weak shear
and lower instability, especially with eastern extent. Exact timing
continues to vary between runs, but generally expect what`s left of
this activity to arrive after midnight for north central KS areas,
and closer to 4am or perhaps not until sunrise for eastern areas.
With Pwat up to 2-2.25", still can`t rule out some efficient
rainfall producers, but think any higher rain totals (1 inch or
more) would be pretty isolated. Most places likely see a quarter
inch or less.

Remnants of showers/storms should move east late Saturday morning. A
weak frontal boundary then looks to move into northeast KS
associated with the upper wave in the Upper Midwest. Convergence
along the boundary may help storms to redevelop in the late
afternoon or evening. Shear still looks modest, but greater
instability (2000-3000 J/kg along the boundary) may be enough to
produce some isolated strong updrafts, which could bring damaging
winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

Heading into early next week, a cut-off low develops off the CA
coast while upper ridging becomes dominant to our southwest. This
low looks to eject weak perturbations which round the ridge and
provide repeated chances for showers and storms, but exact timing
and location of these disturbances are tough to pin down more than a
couple of days out. As such, storm chances occur daily but remain
low through much of next week. Outside of this, temperatures look
seasonal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Very isolated to scattered showers, along with a few
thunderstorms, will be around for much of the period. However the
best chance of these will stay west of the main TAF sites until
Saturday morning. Some scattered MVFR ceilings also can`t be ruled
out tomorrow morning, but ceilings should mostly stay VFR. Winds
stay around 10 kts from the south-southwest through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Reese