965
FXUS63 KTOP 102326
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through the rest of the week.

- Next chance for rain appears to hold off until Sat-Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Even with a sunny sky, temperatures are slow to climb today
with Arctic high pressure overhead. The surface high slowly
slides off to the southeast tonight as warm air advection and
southerly surface wind develops overnight ahead of a weak
trough. Above normal temperatures return tomorrow, with highs
in the 60s to low 70s for the rest of the week and lows in upper
30s to 40s. The jet stream remains north of the area through
the week, which should lead to a dry forecast until the
weekend.

The next big pattern change is favored to arrive Saturday into
Sunday. A deep upper-level low is depicted moving into the
southern Plains Sunday in all of the major long term models. How
far north/south this low moves will depend on how much/little
rain we receive from it. The 12 UTC runs show a more northward
track, bringing most of the area at least a little precipitation
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower and middle
troposphere. Winds will be the main challenge due to a strong
low-level jet forming in the 04Z-14Z window. Guidance varies on
how much of this will mix to the surface, though with
increasing cirrus the mixing could be on the more robust side.
Will err on the cautious side with some gusts and LLWS mention.
Pressure gradient relaxes for weakening winds in the latter
portions of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Poage