944
FXUS63 KTOP 150340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front slides southward tomorrow afternoon, bringing somewhat
  cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.

- Low rain chances return Monday (mainly north of I-70) with
  widespread higher precip chances potentially Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Expansive ridging in the midlevels throughout the central conus
while southwest troughing builds coincident with a poignant upper
low off the CA coastline. For this evening, southerly winds weaken
just under 10 mph as high clouds increase from the northwest. This
should help to limit the overall fog development Saturday morning,
however would not be surprised to see patchy areas form near the
river valley. Minor mid-level perturbations currently entering the
northern plains shift a cold front southward late tonight, entering
northeast Kansas during the day Saturday. Limited cooler air behind
the sfc boundary should still welcome highs into the low to middle
70s, especially south of I-70 where h925 temps linger in the 18-20C
range amid decent sfc BL mixing. Fire weather conditions remain
limited to moderate-high category as northerly sfc winds are not
particularly gusty and minimum RH values in the afternoon drop into
the 27-35 percent range.

Latest runs of the GEFS and ENS continue to lend lesser than average
confidence in rain chances Monday afternoon and evening as the
aforementioned low lifts through the central plains. Large
discrepancies persist in the track of the vort max coupled with
moisture availability between the available ensembles. Latest NAM is
further south with the 500 mb trough, similar to the operational EC
which would improve our rain chances, however that could easily
change in the coming days.

An additional southwest upper trough begins to impact the region as
early as Wednesday as ample moisture advects northward through the
southern plains in advance of the disturbance. Optimal lift and
moisture near a frontal boundary would focus higher precip probs
towards OK, lowering to modest rain chances in northeast Kansas at
this time. The slower progression of the passing wave support
several chances for much needed rainfall through Friday.
Temperatures next week are generally in the 60s, albeit highly
dependent upon the rain/cloud cover as high temp spreads of 10+ are
common on the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Still think elevated near-surface winds
will keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent fog development,
but there is a low chance for fog to briefly reduce VSBY at KTOP.
Wind increase to near 10 kts from the north behind a cold front
by 16z before weakening again Saturday afternoon

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 222 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

      Record High         Forecast High
Nov 15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  76
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        73

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage