892
FXUS63 KTOP 200519
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and storms move northward later this
  afternoon through Sunday. Rain amounts range from 0.75 to 2
  inches with highest amounts focused over east central Kansas.

- There is a low probability (20-30%) for isolated severe storms to
  impact far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon.

- Active weather pattern continues next week with a series of
  disturbances and thunderstorm chances Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Focus today is on the incoming upper low and downstream southerly
flow, advecting increasing moisture and scattered showers to east
central Kansas by the afternoon. CAMs are in good agreement for the
observed embedded trough in Oklahoma to lift over Kansas by early
evening, generating initial scattered showers that become more
widespread by midnight as isentropic lift overspreads the CWA. PWAT
values up to 175% of normal is anticipated by Sunday morning along
with saturated sounding profiles that suggest good confidence for
periods of moderate rainfall Sunday morning and again by Sunday
afternoon as the upper low lifts northward into eastern Kansas. Dry
slot under the low may bring a temporary reprieve from the rain in
east central KS during the morning period before the low and areas
of rain shift east northeast. If we can clear out within the dry
slot, there may be a brief period for sfc CAPE values to reach
around 500 J/KG along and ahead the cold front. Ample effective bulk
shear is present while hodographs are weakly curved in the low
levels, suggesting the tornado threat is low especially given that
the consensus does not develop storms along the front until it
reaches MO. An isolated severe storm remains probable through late
afternoon near the front with threats for large hail possible given
the colder temps aloft. Rainfall totals during this event have not
changed since the previous forecast, generally ranging from 0.75 to
just over 2 inches. Isolated amounts up to 3 inches are most
probable southeast of the KS turnpike.

The activity lifts off to the northeast Sunday evening as skies
gradually clear from west to east overnight. Patchy frost may
develop in north central KS as temps drop into the upper 30s,
however the degree and locations of the frost is highly dependent
upon the cloud cover as NBM spread is as much as 10 degrees in the
10-90th percentile.

Shortwave ridging builds aloft to start next week, quickly returning
southerly flow in the low levels as highs recover back to the 70s
each afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up by Tuesday
evening as a cold front enters the region, in conjunction with an
embedded short wave trough crossing the southern plains. A secondary
embedded wave and cold front trending further north across Colorado
signals higher NBM probs for widespread rain and storms Wednesday
and Thursday. Timing is uncertain this far out, however periods of
heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. At this time, the
threat for widespread severe storms is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Scattered showers will continue overnight, with even
steadier rain moving in from the south towards sunrise. While there
may be a brief lull during the late morning hours, rain with minor
visibility reductions will occur more often than not. A few
thunderstorms are also possible towards Topeka mid-afternoon.
Ceilings steadily lower into early Sunday morning, and stay
generally IFR until Sunday evening when rain and stratus clear from
southwest to northeast. Winds gradually back from east to northeast
to northwest throughout the period as low pressure moves across the
area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Reese