385
FXUS63 KTOP 140816
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this morning before ending by Noon. Rainfall
  amounts look to be light, under one tenth of an inch.

- Drier and warmer for Wednesday and Thursday before shower and
  storm chances increase Friday into Friday night ahead of a
  cold front. A few showers may linger into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed a deep upper
low off the central CA coast. A downstream upper ridge extended from
eastern TX, northeast into the mid MS River Valley. A low amplitude
upper trough was located off the mid Atlantic coast.

The 7Z surface observations  showed a weak front stalled out along
the Red River, and recurved northwest into the central TX PNHDL. A
secondary front extended from southern IA, westward across southeast
NE into portions of north central KS, before extending back
northwest into southeast WY. An area of light showers continue to
drift northward across south central KS.

Today through Thursday night:

The H5 low off the central CA coast will slowly drift east across
the Great Basin on Wednesday and then into central Rockies by
Thursday. The downstream H5 ridge axis will amplify farther
northwest across eastern KS and western MO by 00Z THU.

The front across the southern Plains will undergo frontolysis Today
and the front across southern NE will slowly drift northward. There
may be enough weak isentropic lift for the scattered showers
across south central KS to reach the CWA but they may start to
fall apart as the showers encounter drier air at the low-levels
of the atmosphere across northeast KS. I`ll keep scattered
showers lifting northward across the CWA through the early
morning hours but the showers should move north to the NE border
by the late morning hours.

Skies should become partly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the
lower to mid 70s north and lower 80s across the southeast counties.

Southerly winds and warm air advection will help high temperatures
warm into the lower to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. A
deepening lee trough across the central and southern high Plains
will cause breezy conditions Thursday afternoon with 15 to 25 MPH
winds gusting up to 35 MPH across north central KS.

Friday through Saturday:

The upper through will lift northeast from the central Rockies into
the northern Plains Friday night. An H5 trough axis will extend
southwest across eastern CO into central NM. The H5 jet will
increase to 40 to 50 KTS on Friday across central KS and a
surface front will push east across the state of KS. The front
will move into north central KS late Friday afternoon. The
effective shear will increase to 30 to 40 KTS and if the
instability is great enough some of the thunderstorms may be
strong to severe given the stronger vertical windshear.
Thunderstorms should congeal into a line and move across the
remainder of the CWA during the evening and overnight hours of
Friday. There may be a few lingering showers behind the front
Saturday morning as the H5 trough moves east across the state.
The stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough will shift east of
the CWA by Noon, ending the shower chances. Skies will become
partly cloudy during the afternoon hours. Highs will range from
the lower 70s north to mid to upper 70s across east central KS.

Saturday night through Monday night:

Expect cooler and drier conditions as the H5 trough lifts northeast
across the eastern US. Northwest winds on Sunday will keep highs in
the mid to upper 60s. The surface ridge across the central Plains
will shift southeast across the lower MS River Valley on Monday.
Southerly winds will warm highs into the mid to upper 70s. An H5
trough will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday
night and then dig southeast across the central Rockies on Monday.

Tuesday:

The H5 trough will dig southeast across the Plains on
Tuesday. DCVA will provide ascent for a few showers on Tuesday.
However, the richer moisture will be only make it as far north as
the Red River, so there will only be residual surface moisture. Thus
QPF Tuesday into Tuesday night looks to be light.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Light rain showers and stratus with MVFR ceilings were located
across south central KS early this morning. This area of rain
showers and MVFR ceilings will push north towards the terminals
by 9Z TUE and may last through 13Z TUE. After 14Z, ceilings
should rise above 3000 feet, and scatter out during the late
morning hours of Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan