784
FXUS63 KTOP 222300
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures next week with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- The only chance (10-20%) for precipitation over the next seven
  days comes Tuesday night into Wednesday in the form of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

West-northwest flow resides across the central CONUS this afternoon
with a shortwave pushing east into Oklahoma and Texas and another
shortwave diving southeast over the central Rockies. The much-
anticipated warming trend has commenced today with southwesterly
surface winds and sunny skies aiding to bump temperatures into the
upper 30s and low 40s. Additional warming is expected over the next
couple of days with downsloping westerly winds boosting 850mb
temperatures to 6-8 degrees C on Sunday and to 10-12 degrees C on
Monday and Tuesday. This translates to highs in the 50s Sunday
afternoon and in the 60s on Monday and Tuesday!

The only chance for precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a shortwave and attendant cold front translate southeast across
the Central Plains. Moisture ahead of these features looks limited
and precipitation chances remain low (10-20%) as a result. The warm
temperatures in place will support all rain with any precipitation
that does fall. Breezy northwest winds behind the front bring in
slightly cooler air for Wednesday, but warmer flow quickly returns
by Thursday, keeping temperatures above-normal through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The 12Z HREF shows a small chance (20 to 30 percent) for ground
fog developing around 12Z. Will opt to keep fog out of the
forecast for a couple reasons. First the cross over temp in the
teens to around 20 is lower than forecast lows and suggests it
will be difficult to saturate the boundary layer. Second
forecast soundings keep a 20KT to 30KT wind at the top of the
boundary layer entraining dry air. So think chances for ground
fog are to low to include in the forecast at this time.
Otherwise there should just be some high clouds passing
overhead.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters