701
FXUS63 KTOP 121911
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Windy through this afternoon across the area.

- Trends continues to suggest lower total rainfall accumulations
  possible Monday afternoon and evening. Generally expect under
  a quarter inch total at any single location.

- Active pattern remains in place with warming again mid to late week
  followed by another chance for precipitation into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Across the CONUS this afternoon, satellite and UA pattern show a
deep amplified trough with upper low over the southeastern states
and northern FL vicinity. A ridge has shifted east over the OH and
TN Valley regions. A broad amplified trough remains over the western
CONUS with a southwest flow streaming from NM and TX panhandle
region into the central and northern Plains regions. Several
shortwaves are working through the southwest flow regime which are
very subtle. The primary shortwave remains well northwest of the
area into the Dakotas helping to push a surface low pressure area
into south central Canada this afternoon. A baroclinic zone is
stretched from the eastern Dakotas through central and western NE/KS
regions where the effective cold front resides. Strong winds with
gradient flow and mixing of the LLJ remain over eastern KS areas
helping to keep gusts going into sunset this evening.

Mixing and WAA across the region has helped push afternoon temps
across the area into the middle 80s with upper 80s just south of the
area. Deeper moisture with 60s dewpoints have been shunted just east
of the area. A few mid level clouds are in place this afternoon
across the area which are partially offsetting insulation and what
would likely account for a couple of degrees more of warming.
Considering that, middle 80s should do it for the highs today.

Limited risk of any hazardous weather still anticipated over the
next several days as limited moisture transport and limited
instability look to be in place with very weak ascent mechanisms
even though a surface cold front passes through the area this
evening. That being said, the best chance for isolated to scattered
showers and a possible clap of thunder or two may set up by tomorrow
afternoon and evening before shifting north of the area into early
Tuesday morning as the main identifiable, yet subtle, shortwave
lifts into the area from the NM/TX panhandle region. Forecast
soundings still suggest plenty of problems with any good quality
rainfall to develop with low level dry air in place behind the
frontal boundary. Ensemble data continue to trend lower overall with
very few outliers above a quarter inch QPF and most clusters around
a tenth of an inch total through Tuesday morning across the forecast
area. Would look for areas along the front to see the best chance to
have the highest amounts of course.

Still looking for a rebound in temperatures to above normal by mid
to late week as the front lifts back north after stalling for a
couple days just south of the area. The western trough remains
amplified helping to amplify the ridge over the central CONUS which
will allow for heights to rise. The pattern changes into next
weekend, allowing for the western trough to lift into the central
and northern Plains and push another modified cold front into the
area which will bring another cooler airmass with near normal
temperatures and increased chances for precipitation by next Friday
or Saturday to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Gusty winds continue this afternoon from the south before
calming into sunset ahead of the cold front poised to push
through steadily this evening shifting winds to the WNW then
northerly into the overnight period. Expecting lower cloud decks
to develop but should remain VFR. Trends suggest that any
showers hold off until tomorrow afternoon so confidence in
impacts to the terminals by late in this period is too low to
mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake