778
FXUS63 KTOP 171905
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight and
  tomorrow morning.


- A prolonged heat wave is likely beginning this weekend and
  extending through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Precipitation has largely exited our area to the south as the
front has become less defined and mid/upper-level support has
exited the region. The combination of a developing low-level
jet and a warm front lifting northward across the area may
spark scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow
morning. With PWATs above two inches, heavy rainfall will once
again be possible in any thunderstorms, though flooding concerns
will be much less than last night due to less forcing and
faster forward movement of storms.

After the warm front exits to the north, warm, moist air settles
into the area. Highs Friday will once again climb into the 90s.
Unfortunately, this will be the coolest day of the next week. A
prolonged heat wave will grip the region this weekend through
next week. While we have been warm lately, this will be more
prolonged heat than we have seen in a while. Temperatures
around 100 degrees and heat indicies of 100-110 degrees will be
possible each day. Precipitation may be shunted off to our north
depending on the strength of the upper-level ridge that builds
into the central Plains. A few complexes of storms may ridge the
periphery of the ridge and could impact portions of the area
over the next week, but predictability and confidence in any
precipitation is quite low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

MVFR to IFR through the TAF period. Low stratus will likely
continue through all but the last few hours of the TAF period.
Some variation in the height of this deck is expected. We may
see a rise to MVFR later this afternoon, but a drop down to IFR
once again this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the
area. Cloud cover and storms will clear out from south to north
tomorrow morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones