205
FXUS63 KTOP 082257
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to move across the area tonight. Some
  storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and
  locally heavy rain being the main hazards.

- Low chances (15-30%) for showers/storms during the daytime
  hours Thursday and Friday with higher chances (30-60%)
  Thursday night and Friday night.

- Temperatures hold near average through the weekend, then
  gradually warm up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon
with a surface low located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this
feature, increased southerly winds and deeper mixing have bumped
temperatures into the low to mid 90s with heat index values
approaching 100 in some areas. A MCV spinning over central Kansas
has produced some showers and isolated thunderstorms and the
potential for isolated showers/storms will continue as this features
shifts east into an unstable and uncapped airmass this afternoon.
Weak shear should preclude any severe potential, although inverted-V
soundings would support stronger wind gusts if any storm does
develop.

The evolution of this MCV does lead to at least some additional
uncertainty in how convection evolves this evening, but overall
thinking remains consistent with previous shifts. As energy moves
through the mean flow, convection will spark near the surface low
across western Kansas and along a surface boundary in
eastern/southern Nebraska and move into the area from the north and
west. CAMs have been inconsistent in timing, coverage, and intensity
of storms, although recent runs have come into better agreement in
WAA showers/storms forming ahead of any complex that moves south out
of Nebraska or in from the west. Best chances for severe weather
will be with any line segment that does move into the area. An
increasing cap along with decreasing instability through the
overnight hours should still work to weaken storms as they push
south early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts of 60-65 MPH remain the
main severe hazard. PWATs around 1.75" will support heavy downpours
and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but the progression of
storms should keep any flooding isolated in nature.

Showers and storms exit the area by mid-morning Thursday as the
front sags into east central Kansas and stalls. Highs on Thursday
will be dependent upon how far south the front makes it and where
any residual outflow boundary and cloud cover reside. There could be
a large temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the low
to mid 90s across central and north-central Kansas down to the low
to mid 80s across far northeast Kansas. Any additional development
during the afternoon and evening would likely be focused near the
surface front that is progged to lie near the I-35 corridor. Another
complex of storms that develops across the High Plains will work
towards the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. The
severe potential is low again with this round, but there could be
some strong wind gusts with this activity. A similar set-up appears
likely for Friday; low chance for an afternoon or evening storm with
increasing shower/storm chances Friday night into Saturday morning.

The boundary slowly oozes south early next week as mid-level ridging
expands south and east across the central CONUS. Dry and hotter
conditions are likely through the middle of next week, with some
uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. The NBM is on the
upper-end of the ensemble envelope with highs in the mid to upper
90s. While temperatures of this magnitude are plausible, easterly
winds through the entire troposphere do not seem overly conducive
for this level of heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of TS overnight.
There is a good enough signal from the CAMs and MOS guidance to
maintain TEMPO groups for TOP and FOE. There continues to be lower
confidence for MHK where CAMs suggest TS just skirting to the east of
the terminal.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters