381
FXUS63 KTOP 161027
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather is forecast to remain in place for the next few
  days. A heat advisory remains in effect for the area today.

- There is a general 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and
  storms Mon. through Wed. The better chances look to be Tue.

- A break from the heat is forecast by Wednesday and highs are
  expected to be in the 80s through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge centered over
the Ozarks while the mean westerlies remained across the
northern tier of the country and into Canada. Surface obs showed
low pressure remained over the central high plains with high
pressure across the MS river valley. This has allowed southerly
winds to maintain a warm and humid airmass over the forecast
area.

There is not a lot of change in the 00Z guidance or to the forecast
this morning. Upper ridging is expected to remain the main feature
driving our weather with general subsidence while south winds keep
the warm and humid air in place. The one thing to keep an eye on is
the potential for elevated showers within a warm air advection
pattern across central KS Sunday morning. Isentropic surfaces show a
narrow area of lift with marginal saturation. For now much of the
guidance from the CAMs and operational solutions keep QPF to the
west of the forecast area. The GFS continues to show it`s hot bias
with forecast soundings mixing to 650MB. But much of the other
guidance suggests similar temperatures will be experienced today as
we had yesterday. In fact there isn`t any indication of an airmass
change through at least Monday. So highs are forecast to remain in
the middle and upper 90s in the short term. Heat indices look to
range from 100 to 105 again today so will keep the heat advisory in
tact. Models are hinting at some mixing of the boundary layer
dewpoints each of the next couple days, especially across north
central KS. This could keep the heat indices a degree or two lower.
So rather than extend the advisory for marginal heat, opted to let
later shifts reevaluate the dewpoint forecast before altering the
advisory.

Precip chances remain in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
This period is expected to see a weakening of the upper ridge and
it`s eventual retrograde to the west, allowing for some
perturbations to dig south. The better opportunity for precip looks
to be Tuesday as models show what looks like a convectively induced
shortwave digging south as a weak frontal boundary also slips south.
Mid level temps are progged to cool so there doesn`t appear to be
much inhibition for convection. Differences in the timing of precip
from the various models has the blend giving POPs in the 20 to 40
percent range. For example the GFS seems to favor nocturnal precip
while the ECMWF shows better chances in the afternoon. Have left the
POPs from the NBM in tact for now, but the chances for precip within
the 24 hours of Tuesday may be better that what the NBM is showing.
Straight ensemble guidance is showing POPs as high as 50 percent
Tuesday afternoon.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to
redevelop over the central plains limiting chances that a synoptic
scale feature could come along and force precip. So the forecast is
dry. The good news is models also have surface ridging nosing into
the region from the upper midwest. This is expected to bring a
northeasterly and easterly wind to the area beginning Wednesday and
lasting through the end of the week keeping highs generally in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

General subsidence with an upper ridge over eastern KS is
forecast to keep VFR conditions in place. Southerly winds are
expected to pick up by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters