458
FXUS63 KTOP 231113
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-One round of rain is expected this morning, with another arriving
tonight and early Friday.

-Heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with storms today and
tomorrow.

-The rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side of
average for a few days.

-Heat and humidity build back in this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

At 07Z, water vapor imagery and H7 analysis showed a mid-level ridge
centered over TX/OK/NM with a few shortwaves on its northern
periphery. A batch of showers and storms had developed ahead of one
wave over western KS/NE. The environment ahead of the wave in central
KS featured 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 7.0-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, and weak shear. Further east, instability was minimal and
lapse rates were less impressive. Thinking is that showers will
expand as the system slowly moves east through the morning.
Thunderstorm chances remain highest in central KS given the
aforementioned parameters, with a general weaken trend expected into
eastern KS later this morning. The most likely hazard with storms
will be heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings show a fairly saturated
column and pwats in the 1.9-2.0 inch range in more central portions
of the state. QPF is around an inch of rain in central/north-central
KS, and lower amounts eastward where lift and instability will be
weaker. Rain and residual cloud cover will keep temperatures on the
cool side of average today with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Focus then turns to another round of rain expected tonight as
another shortwave trough axis moves over the area. A similar
environment will be in place, except that pwats are expected to be a
bit higher due to stronger low level moisture transport and theta-e
values. Overall lift looks somewhat weak, which leads to some
uncertainty regarding how widespread precipitation will become, but
there is at least potential for heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding, especially in locations that receive rain today. The axis
for heaviest rainfall still looks to be along and north of I-70 with
Friday`s round, where the HREF and NBM both have about a 50-70%
chance for at least one inch of rain. Rain should taper off from
west to east through midday, with possibly just a few lingering
showers by mid-afternoon.

This weekend, the mid-level ridge axis will quickly expand back to
the north. Heat and humidity will respond with highs back in the 90s
and heat index values exceeding triple digits for most. The hottest
days look to be Sunday and Monday before the ridge possibly weakens
as perturbations rotate around the northern edge. Those
perturbations are difficult to time at this range, but they could
bring some rain chances back to the forecast by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Rain will impact airports this morning and will eventually move east
of sites midday or early afternoon. Updated the timing of
precipitation at all sites slightly based on the most recent forecast
and radar trends. Also, kept mention of VCTS at KMHK where
instability is higher. CIGS still look to stay VFR and east winds
should remain fairly light. Another round of SH/TS is expected late
this period into early Friday but have kept that out of TAFs with
this update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey