616
FXUS63 KTOP 191953
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through Sunday.

- The Rangeland Fire Index will reach the very high category
  Sunday afternoon.

- Precipitation chances increase Monday into Monday night. Highest
rainfall amounts expected more towards north-central and central KS.

- Turning slightly cooler by mid-week, behind a Wednesday cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Early this afternoon a closed upper low was located across AZ with a
downstream upper ridge across the east central US. The upper low was
cut off from the northern branch of the upper jet that was
located across southern Canada.

The 18Z surface maps showed a broad surface ridge axis extending
from the east central US, southwest across AR into south central TX.
The richer Gulf moisture continued to be trapped across far southern
TX.

Tonight through Sunday night:

The upper level low will slowly lift north-northeast into southern
CO by Sunday night. We will continue to get dry air parcel
trajectories around the surface ridge to our southeast. The stronger
DCVA ahead of the upper low will remain well west of the CWA across
eastern CO into western KS Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will reach
the upper 70s to around 80s degrees. The lee trough will deepen a
big across eastern NM/CO on Sunday, so winds may increase to 10 to
20 MPH with some gusts of 15 to 25 MPH.

Monday through Monday night:

The H5 trough over eastern CO will lift east-northeast into NE.
Residual moisture return and steepening lapse rates, along with
DCVA for stronger ascent ahead of the H5 low, which will fill
more into an open H5 trough. The resulting ascent and increasing
instability will cause showers and a few storms to develop
across central KS Sunday night, these showers and storms will
shift east across north central KS but the areal coverage may
decrease as these showers shift east into the eastern half of
the CWA. A combination of the filling H5 trough and 850mb winds
veering will only provide a tenth of an inch or so to the far
eastern counties. North central KS may see up to 0.25 inches
during the day on Monday. The LFER ensembles show the
probability of 0.25 inches or greater at 70 percent across north
central KS with a less than 28 percent of receiving a 0.25 inch
along and east of US HWY 75.

Tuesday through Saturday:

The main upper level jet will remain north of the area, so expect
dry conditions for most of the extended period. An H5 perturbation
digging southeast across the plains may bring a slight chance for
showers Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees, with a slight cool down Wednesday and
Thursday back into the 70s, before we warm back up into the upper
70s to around 80 degrees by next Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Expect VFR conditons for the next 24 hours. South-southwest
winds of 9-11 KTS this afternoon will diminish towards sunset
and back more to the southeast through the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Forecast soundings show deeper mixing across the CWA Sunday
afternoon. Minimum RHs will drop to 20 to 25 percent across much of
the area. South to southwest wind gusts across north central KS
will reach around 25 MPH with southerly wind gusts across
northeast and east central KS only reaching 15 to 20 MPH. The
rangeland fire index will reach the very high category across
much of the area. Given the dry fuels, any fires started could
become wildfires.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan