989
FXUS63 KTOP 070509
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly isolated to scattered storms continue over southern
portions of east-central Kansas through this afternoon and possibly
into the early evening hours.

- Several off and on storm chances remain in the forecast through
the work week and into next weekend. A period or two of severe
storm chances may be possible.

- High temperatures generally remain in the low 90s through the week
before cooling slightly to the 80s into next weekend. Heat indices
remain in the 90s and around 100 at times this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid to upper level shortwave continues to track east of the area
over the mid MS Valley region. The mean Westerlies remain along the
northern tier of the CONUS with generally weak flow over the
southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A cut-off low is spinning along
the western short of California. A weak modified cold front is now
situated nearly right along I-35 extending back into central and
west-central Kansas. This boundary remains the focus for showers and
storms this afternoon and evening.

Storms have formed this afternoon along the frontal boundary. Expect
isolated to scattered storms to continue along the convergent zone
of the front with surface based CAPE around 3000 J/kg and weak shear
overall. These storms haven`t been well organized due to lack of
overall support but they do continue to drift generally
southeasterly with weak overall mean winds. Mid-level lapse rates
around on the order of 6-6.5 C/km so once updrafts rise they tend to
lose momentum without the benefit of organized shear. The main
hazard with any of these storms appears to be brief heavy rainfall
with possibly strong outflow winds as multicells collapse and form
new updrafts. Most storms should remain below severe limits. Expect
these push southeast of the area by early this evening.

Tonight into early morning tomorrow, storms forming over the High
Plains congeal into another MCS and try to propagate east. Some
guidance continues to hint that these storms remain north of the
area while another cluster moves into southwestern KS. Models have
struggled to pick up on the current convection over central Nebraska
which appears to have some mid-level support which has kept a small
complex of storms going this afternoon. This leads to an overall low
confidence forecast so have maintained POPs around 20 percent into
early tomorrow morning over north-central KS areas as storms would
likely dissipate with the lack of overall forcing and shear.

The pattern into Tuesday appear to be a bit more favorable for
storms advancing into the area early as a Pacific trough digs into
the northern Plains and helps to push a line of storms into the
area. This may be one of the best chances for organized storms
through the week to impact the area. The other best chance for
organized storms appears to setup into Thursday night and Friday as
the western ridge flattens and another Pacific trough digs further
south into the central Plains. This appears to be a strong enough
push of slightly cooler air to bring high temperatures back to the
80s by the upcoming weekend with dewpoints perhaps cooling into the
middle or even low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Main question is when/if TS develop in the heat of the day.
Latest RAP and NAM seem to show a vort max left from the high
plains convection, drifting over northeast KS in the afternoon.
Objective guidance has POPs from 20 to 60 percent during the
afternoon while the CAMs also show a mixed signal. So will opt
for a PROB30 group during the afternoon. Confidence is marginal
since there isn`t a boundary to focus development, but the
thermodynamics should be favorable for convection. Until then
think VFR conditions will prevail. There may be some ground fog
around day break, but high clouds from the west could limit
these chances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters