


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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989 FXUS63 KTOP 070509 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly isolated to scattered storms continue over southern portions of east-central Kansas through this afternoon and possibly into the early evening hours. - Several off and on storm chances remain in the forecast through the work week and into next weekend. A period or two of severe storm chances may be possible. - High temperatures generally remain in the low 90s through the week before cooling slightly to the 80s into next weekend. Heat indices remain in the 90s and around 100 at times this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A mid to upper level shortwave continues to track east of the area over the mid MS Valley region. The mean Westerlies remain along the northern tier of the CONUS with generally weak flow over the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A cut-off low is spinning along the western short of California. A weak modified cold front is now situated nearly right along I-35 extending back into central and west-central Kansas. This boundary remains the focus for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Storms have formed this afternoon along the frontal boundary. Expect isolated to scattered storms to continue along the convergent zone of the front with surface based CAPE around 3000 J/kg and weak shear overall. These storms haven`t been well organized due to lack of overall support but they do continue to drift generally southeasterly with weak overall mean winds. Mid-level lapse rates around on the order of 6-6.5 C/km so once updrafts rise they tend to lose momentum without the benefit of organized shear. The main hazard with any of these storms appears to be brief heavy rainfall with possibly strong outflow winds as multicells collapse and form new updrafts. Most storms should remain below severe limits. Expect these push southeast of the area by early this evening. Tonight into early morning tomorrow, storms forming over the High Plains congeal into another MCS and try to propagate east. Some guidance continues to hint that these storms remain north of the area while another cluster moves into southwestern KS. Models have struggled to pick up on the current convection over central Nebraska which appears to have some mid-level support which has kept a small complex of storms going this afternoon. This leads to an overall low confidence forecast so have maintained POPs around 20 percent into early tomorrow morning over north-central KS areas as storms would likely dissipate with the lack of overall forcing and shear. The pattern into Tuesday appear to be a bit more favorable for storms advancing into the area early as a Pacific trough digs into the northern Plains and helps to push a line of storms into the area. This may be one of the best chances for organized storms through the week to impact the area. The other best chance for organized storms appears to setup into Thursday night and Friday as the western ridge flattens and another Pacific trough digs further south into the central Plains. This appears to be a strong enough push of slightly cooler air to bring high temperatures back to the 80s by the upcoming weekend with dewpoints perhaps cooling into the middle or even low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Main question is when/if TS develop in the heat of the day. Latest RAP and NAM seem to show a vort max left from the high plains convection, drifting over northeast KS in the afternoon. Objective guidance has POPs from 20 to 60 percent during the afternoon while the CAMs also show a mixed signal. So will opt for a PROB30 group during the afternoon. Confidence is marginal since there isn`t a boundary to focus development, but the thermodynamics should be favorable for convection. Until then think VFR conditions will prevail. There may be some ground fog around day break, but high clouds from the west could limit these chances. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Wolters