385
FXUS63 KTOP 030514
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain near average for early July for the next
several days with increasing humidity into the holiday weekend.

- Storm chances return on the 4th and linger into early next week,
although greatest chances (40-60%) come Friday night through
Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An upper ridge dominates the central and southern Rockies and
Plains, while a southern stream trough is noted over southern CA
with the northern stream off the coast of British Columbia. Sfc high
pressure is starting to move off to the east while low pressure is
developing in CO in response to the southern stream trough. This
pattern will keep quiet weather in place at least through tonight
and likely Thursday as well, with the upper ridge axis moving
overhead. Lee troughing should deepen through the day Thursday,
increasing southerly low-level flow and moisture transport. As such,
conditions look slightly more humid by Thursday afternoon. The vast
majority of model guidance keeps any precip south of the area, so
between that and a lack of clear source of lift, have kept a dry
forecast.

Heading into the 4th of July holiday, moisture transport increases
further while the aforementioned southern stream trough dampens and
traverses across the central Rockies and Plains. A few pop-up
thunderstorms can`t entirely be ruled out during the afternoon hours
with 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE, although greater storm chances look to
be focused towards the late evening and overnight hours with the
upper wave. Regardless of timing, the environment doesn`t have much
shear but Pwat looks to get above 2" by Friday evening. With this
setup, am not anticipating severe storms, but heavy rain and gusty
winds would be a reasonable possibility. This first wave departs to
the east later Saturday morning, but another one is close behind and
looks to bring another round of showers and storms Saturday night
into early Sunday. A weak frontal boundary accompanies this second
system, but looks to have little impact on temperatures (a few
degrees at most) as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 80s with
lows in the upper 60s through about mid-week.

Daily thunderstorm chances are in the forecast through mid-week as
subtle perturbations round the upper ridge to our south each day.
However, chances at any particular location are on the low side at
this time, given lower confidence on timing and placement of these
disturbances this far out. Temperatures may also be impacted
depending on rain and cloud cover, but in general it looks likely we
stay near average for early July into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southerly
wind and mostly clear sky.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Jones