649
FXUS63 KTOP 030432
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1032 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild tonight but cold air returns Wednesday afternoon into
  Thursday.

- Flurries and sprinkles possible late tonight into Wednesday night.

- Dry with near normal temperatures Friday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Northwest upper flow regime from the Pacific Northwest to the
central CONUS has backed in the short term with cirrus making its
way over the central Rockies downstream of an upper wave digging
over California. Lee troughing has allowed for decent warm-air
advection over the snow field over much of the area with temperatures
at to well above freezing at 19Z.

Continued south to southwest flow near the surface under increasing
high cloud should lead to steady temperatures for the late evening
and overnight. Most guidance indicates a few weak mid-level waves
traversing the area later tonight and again Wednesday. Forcing for
ascent looks weak and low-level moisture is largely lacking, though
does increase for a several hour period behind a cold front that
will surge southeast across the area late tonight into early
Wednesday afternoon. The coincidence of these waves with the greater
low-level saturation is not ideal but there is enough concern to
mention trace precip; the vast majority of models fail to generate
measurable precipitation. Temperatures behind the front may fall in
the afternoon for central and northern areas given strong 925 mb CAA
and little insolation. Overall, temperatures with this next front
have trended a bit warmer than earlier but lows still approach
record low values at TOP with wind chill in the single digits above
0 much of Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Northwest flow persists into early next week though becomes more
zonal, which should keep significant cold surges more in check. A
modest wave around Saturday night will need to be monitored, but
precipitation chances look low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

No significant changes expected from the previous forecast...VFR
conditions through mid- morning tomorrow until FROPA occurs
with a front moving in from north to south across the area.
Behind the front, expect low stratus around or above FL015 to
remain in place through the afternoon. A few gusts accompany
frontal passage lasting into the evening hours before relaxing.
Conditions for LLWS overnight tonight are looking only
marginally strong with winds increasing aloft through FL020.
Since only marginal impacts are anticipated, have not mentioned
in the forecast at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

           Current Record   Forecast

Topeka      8, set in 1902     10
Concordia  -2, set in 1886      8

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage