


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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420 FXUS63 KTOP 100748 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning storms should fall apart leaving hot conditions this afternoon. - Higher chances for showers and storms is forecast for Friday and Friday night. - There is a risk storms Friday could have damaging winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 07Z water vapor imagery showed upper ridging over the southwest with a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A linear MCS was making it`s way through eastern NEB and approaching northeast KS. At the surface, a trough of low pressure was noted in the lee of the central Rockies with weak high pressure to the east of the area. Not a great deal of change in the forecast for today and unfortunately the confidence in the forecast hasn`t changed a lot either. This morning`s convection was suppose to be weakening as it encountered increasing CIN over northeast KS and it is beginning to show signs of weakening. Still have increased POPs across the northern counties where it looks like storms should push into the area. But does an MCV linger this afternoon and will is be over northeast KS or further to the north and east. Based on current obs and water vapor imagery, think if there will be a MCV it may influence the weather more over northern MO than here. Aside from that, the models show the surface boundary remaining to the west of the forecast area through the afternoon with warming mid level temps as an EML advects northeast. 700MB temps are progged to increase to between +12 and +15C across central and into northeast KS. So with out an obvious forcing mechanism or boundary to focus convergence, think the daytime hours are most likely to remain dry. Today looks to be one of the hottest days with parts of north central KS approaching 100 degrees. Dewpoints are forecast to mix out into the middle 60s. This is expected to keep heat indices around 100 so conditions for a heat advisory appear to be marginal. The day shift can watch dewpoints to see if heat indices may end up higher. The surface front, which is progged to be a little slower, is forecast to approach north central KS tonight and gradually move into the area by Friday evening as shortwave energy passes mainly north of the forecast area. There are questions about severe potential tonight, especially if storms hold off until the overnight period as surface based CIN should be on the increase. But Friday afternoon and evening may be the time when severe potential is highest. Instability south of the boundary should be plentiful with some modest bulk shear of 25 to 35KT. With freezing levels around 14 KFT, it looks to be difficult for storms to produce hail unless a discrete supercell can organize a solid mesocyclone. So damaging winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main hazards. Models show the higher QPF amounts Friday night as the boundary slides south. So this is when the highest POPs are in the forecast. With the slower progression of the frontal boundary, the POPs Saturday are a little higher then the prev forecasts had. After Saturday, a quasi zonal pattern develops with no obvious synoptic scale energy progged to impact the area. So the general 10 to 20 percent chance POPs are in the forecast given the expected return of a conditionally unstable airmass. The next synoptically driven chance for precip looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as another shortwave passing through the northern plains potentially brings a front into the area. There are some differences between the GFS and ECMWF starting to show up with the timing of the trough and boundary. So the confidence in the forecast is a little lower. Stuck with the blend which still has chance POPs in the forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday night. This may be overly broad but given the lower predictability is probably warranted. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Models show surface based CIN increasing through the early morning while the CAMS weaken the MCS over central NEB as it moves southeast. So will keep a dry forecast going with VFR conditions prevailing. Southerly surface winds look to strengthen by the late morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters