Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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512 FXUS63 KTOP 092314 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 514 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several days of slightly above normal temperatures this week. - Low chance for rain overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Temperatures recovering nicely today as the clouds and drizzle associated with the upper low have shifted off to the east and north, leaving clearing skies and increasing southerly winds in its wake. Some wrap around clouds holding highs in the 50s in central Kansas, while eastern areas are close to middle 60s this afternoon. The upper low makes its way out of eastern Nebraska to western Iowa by morning, leaving more zonal westerly flow over the area for Sunday and becoming southwesterly through Sunday evening. This should bring most areas from upper 50s west to lower 60s east to finish out the weekend. A back door cool front approaches the state from the north on Monday, but not before increasing mixing into warmer temperatures aloft ahead of the front and bringing middle to upper 60s to the southern two thirds of the area on Monday with lower 60s in the north. The next system moves out of the Rockies by late Tuesday, bringing southerly winds and another day of above normal temperatures for the area. The surface front associated with this wave moves across eastern Kansas overnight into Wednesday morning with some low chances for rain and possibly a rumble of thunder. Thursday through Saturday brings another round of flow becoming zonal behind the departing Wednesday wave, then increasingly southwesterly as the next longwave trof develops across the baja into the southwestern states. Slightly above normal temperatures continue, with a low probability rain chance returning late Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 502 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Low level clouds continue to lift north of the KMHK terminal over the next few hours but remain VFR in the meantime at all terminals. Winds relax as the larger weather system lifts out of the region into the overnight. Winds veer to the west and remain around or just under 10 kts overnight keeping the boundary layer mixed with dry air continuing to work into the area. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Craven AVIATION...Drake