668
FXUS63 KTOP 032312
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (20-40%) come to mainly
  central KS for the afternoon of July 4th. Highest rain chances
  (40-60%) hold off area-wide until after midnight into
  Saturday morning.

- Lower rain chances remain sporadic the rest of the weekend into
  next week.

- Temperatures remain near average for early July for the next
  several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A broad ridge aloft is over the central CONUS with its axis
overhead, keeping quiet conditions in the area today. Yesterday`s
shortwave over CA has weakened while progressing east today, but a
more defined shortwave isn`t far behind off the western coast.
Surface troughing has been deepening across CO today, allowing
southerly low-level flow to bring in a more humid air mass. That
said, the deeper moisture still resides well south into OK and TX.
Any scattered convection should remain limited to that area this
afternoon while we remain quiet and dry under diurnal cumulus.

The weaker of the two aforementioned shortwaves is progged to lift
northeastward across the Rockies and Plains Friday, which should
help to develop a somewhat more organized cluster of storms in
western NE/KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours of
the Independence Day holiday. There may be just enough isentropic
lift ahead of this feature, mainly in central KS, for a few isolated
to widely scattered storms to develop ahead of the main cluster.
However, better storm chances exist with the approaching upper wave,
assuming the storms from the west can maintain themselves as they
move into our area. Additionally, moisture transport looks to
increase into western and central KS tonight into Friday. The
moisture axis comprised of Pwat between 2-2.25" should gradually
move east into our north central KS counties during the afternoon
and eventually across the rest of the area later into the evening
and overnight hours. The main time frame for any isolated activity
looks to be generally 3-9pm if it occurs. There are some timing
differences among CAMs with the approaching cluster from our west,
with the ARW being on the earlier side, but a general consensus
holds things off until after midnight. Storms also look to fall
apart as they move into an environment with less shear and
instability in our area, so not anticipating severe weather with
this activity. Even with the deep moisture, confidence in any area
receiving heavy rainfall is pretty low with the storms weakening as
they move east. The HREF only has a 20-40% probability of exceeding
1" of rain, and this is limited to mainly Republic County.

Rain should move out Saturday morning with a break before the next
potential shortwave later Saturday into early Sunday. Models project
more instability Saturday afternoon, but still low shear, so
confidence in strength of any storms that redevelop remains rather
low and would likely depend on how much clearing occurs as well. The
pattern looks fairly unsettled into next week with subtle
perturbations repeatedly rounding the upper ridge that becomes
established over the southwest CONUS. Will likely need to take the
details a day at a time with each wave being dependent on the one
preceding it. Outside of storm chances, temperatures look seasonal
for early July with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will continue in a moderately-mixed and
relatively-dry lower troposphere. Diurnal gusts should diminish
around sunset and return around 16Z, likely slightly more
robust than today. Precipitation chances increase somewhat near
00Z but chances remain too low for inclusion. Can`t completely
rule out some smoke from fireworks creating slightly-reduced
visibilities around 04Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Poage