611
FXUS63 KTOP 221120
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures stay cool today, but will warm through the
 weekend.

-A cold front moves through dry on Sunday.

-Uncertainty remains high on whether winter weather will occur
 around Thanksgiving, but there remains at least a slight
 chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today, a surface ridge over the central US will keep temperatures
cool and winds light. After starting in the 20s, temperatures will
reach about 50 degrees for the high this afternoon. The surface ridge
moves southeast tomorrow as an upper ridge moves overhead.
South winds and upper ridging will allow temperatures to warm
through the weekend. Highs Saturday are expected to reach the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Later in the weekend, an upper
level trough axis moving from the Intermountain West into the
northern High Plains will cause a developing surface low to move
out over KS. An associated frontal boundary will then move from
west to east across the forecast area Sunday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures ahead of the boundary look to reach the
mid 60s for the southeastern half of the CWA before winds shift
to the north. No precipitation is expected with the front.

Much cooler conditions are anticipated by Monday when temperatures
will struggle to reach the mid 40s for much of the area. Dry and
cool weather remain in place into the middle of the week with
much attention then focused on whether or not rain/snow could
occur around the Thanksgiving timeframe as an upper level open
wave moves over the central US. Deterministic models agree on
surface low pressure passing southeast of the CWA, but disagree
on placement of precipitation. Ensembles hang onto low
probabilities -- 20 to 30 percent chance from the EC ensemble
and 20 to 40 percent chance from the GFS ensemble -- of at least
one inch of snow across northern KS on Thanksgiving. NBM is
maintaining 20 to 30 percent chances for light rain and snow
from late Wednesday into midday Thursday, with accumulations of
light snow contained to far northern KS. Confidence remains
somewhat low on whether or not we see precipitation and
accumulations with quite a bit of ensemble variation from
individual members still observed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR expected this period with just high clouds moving over at
times. MVFR CIGS in Missouri are slowly moving west this
morning but should stay east of airports today. Winds remain
very light with a surface ridge in place today.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey