582
FXUS63 KTOP 031934
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather to persist into early next week with widespread
chances of rain Friday into early Saturday morning.

- Warmer and drier weather returns by mid next week as
  temperatures return closer to average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Features noted on 19z water vapor imagery show a cutoff low over the
Great Basin with southwesterly flow overspreading much of the
central and southern Plains, deep moist convection across the
Arkansas and Mississippi river valleys and a few other weak upper
lows closer to the Hudson Bay. In northeast Kansas, we remain
sandwiched between a surface high in Iowa and a deepening surface
trough in eastern Texas. Moisture streaming north and east within
the southwest flow has overspread the area with mid and high cloud
cover with stratus beginning to move into south-central Kansas where
dewpoints have been able to increase into the mid 40s. Deeper and
better low-level moisture should stay south and east of the warning
area, but cannot rule out some light showers across far east-central
Kansas this afternoon. With cloud cover and minimal WAA this
afternoon, not expecting temperatures to warm much above the the
upper 50s this afternoon except for a few locations in central KS
where some periods of sunshine have warmed those areas a few degrees
higher.

By early Friday morning, the cutoff low to our southwest continues
its push east, increasing mid level moisture and lift. In response,
the surface trough and moisture advection across eastern TX and
Arkansas should also push further north. Widespread light to
moderate rain showers should begin around Friday 12z, persisting into
the afternoon and evening. By Friday night and early Saturday
morning, a separate mid-level trough axis pushing across the
northern Plains will help to push a cold front across the area from
the north. Increased lift along the front paired with the residual
moisture could help to continue showers into early Saturday morning,
but the cold and dry air that moves in behind the boundary should
limit most rain chances for Saturday morning to far east-central KS
and into southwest MO. The last bit of energy associated with the
cutoff low should begin to pass over southeastern Kansas Saturday
night keeping PoPs across east-central KS until 06-12z Sunday
morning. With temperatures hovering around freezing, cannot rule out
snow mixing with rain, but not expecting much if any accumulations
outside of a dusting. High temperatures this Friday and this weekend
given the precipitation chances, CAA and cloud cover will struggle
to hit the mid 50s with lows each morning dipping into the 30s and
40s.

Slightly warmer temperatures return by Monday and Tuesday as flow
returns to the south and southwest for a bit. A small mid-level
vorticity maximum could work its way across the central Plains
Tuesday night and return rain and storm chances to the area, but
confidence in this is still low. Mid-level heights continue to
increase later into the work week and should help to return
temperatures back to the 70s by Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Increasing moisture will slowly push lower CIGs towards the
terminals later this afternoon and evening. Kept VFR ceilings
until Friday morning, but could see some scattered to broken
decks of stratus advect north this afternoon, briefly dropping
flight status, but confidence was not high enough to include a
broken mention. CIGs should remain VFR for this evening before
dropping into the MVFR range around sunrise Friday morning as
rain showers overspread the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer