708
FXUS63 KTOP 010611
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
111 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple nice days with slightly cooler temperatures in store today
  and Wednesday.

- Warming up again for the 4th of July into the weekend with precipitation
  chances returning as well.

- No one period for the 4th of July and the holiday weekend appear
  to be a washout at this time but a summertime pattern remains
  in place so chances for brief showers and storms can`t be
  ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The mid to upper level trough that helped push yesterday`s modified
cold front through has shifted east of the region and is now
tracking into the central Great Lakes. The forecast area will remain
along the southwestern flank of the northwest flow regime from the
Mid MS Valley into the northern Rockies regions. A western ridge
remains mostly in place over the next couple of days with a cut-off
low feature off the coast of central California.

Surface high pressure continues to expand into the region over
through the day today bringing slightly cooler dewpoints and a
lower overall theta-e airmass which will be noticeable for at least
today and likely through Wednesday as well with the northwest flow
regime overhead. Expect some areas of possible ground fog or patchy
fog in low-lying areas around sunrise this morning. Should remain
dry for the next couple of days.

By Thursday, the western cut-off low appears to fill and become
absorbed into a the mean Westerlies as a Pacific trough digs into
the Pacific northwest. Ridging shifts east of the Rockies helping to
bring higher overall heights to the central CONUS and thus warming
temperatures for the holiday weekend. As the shortwave energy from
the west generally works into the northern Plains region, a WAA
pattern and slight lee troughing set up through the Plains. Higher
theta-e air returns north which will help bring more more summertime
instability back across the region. Weak overall forcing is likely
in place, so weak flow as well. Can`t rule out the off and on shower
and storm chances beginning on the 4th and through the weekend as a
result. If there is an associated weak surface boundary with the
energy working into the northern Plains, that could be a focal point
for enhanced areas of showers and storms late day on the 4th into
Saturday. Timing is a toss up right now of course without any strong
upper level features to track for certain. Ensemble data appears to
be somewhat mixed for the latest run and trends appear to focus best
precipitation chances generally after dark on the 4th of July. Will
have to monitor the overall setup through this week as the outcome
on the 4th will likely come down to the mesoscale setup and timing
of any frontal boundary with synoptic features generally appearing
to focused north of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds remaining
below 10kts. Winds will slowly veer to the southeast by this
evening as high pressure builds into the region. Ground fog
would be very shallow and not expected to impact operations
mainly at the KTOP terminal around sunrise this morning if it
does form.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake