315
FXUS63 KTOP 292330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers are possible Thursday (20-30% chance) with
isolated thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures remain through this week into the first part
of the weekend, then warm up next week.

- Lows Friday and Saturday mornings fall back to the mid 30s, mainly
north of I-70, which could lead to frost formation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Broad troughing over Canada and the US has led to mainly zonal flow
over the forecast area this afternoon, with an upper low noted in
the Pacific off the coast of southern CA. Sfc high pressure is
placed in the Central Plains, leading to quiet weather with fairly
light winds today. A few more hours of heating will bring our high
temperatures into the low to mid 60s.

As we head into tonight and early Thursday, weak perturbations
within the northwest flow over the northern/central Rockies along
with some mid-level frontogenesis will help to develop scattered
showers in CO and the High Plains. The better lift from the
frontogenesis appears to be towards central KS Thursday morning,
which is where CAMs have most of the rain coverage. Towards
northeast KS, there may be just enough convergence along a weak sfc
boundary for a few other showers to develop there and into MO/IA.
However, a look at forecast soundings doesn`t show as much moisture
and lift for northeast KS. Coverage increases a bit into the
afternoon before the wave pushes south through the evening. Models
show a couple hundred J/kg of elevated instability, so a few
isolated thunderstorms can`t entirely be ruled out, but most
activity looks to remain as light showers.

For the end of the week, our area ends up between two systems with a
large upper low over the northeastern US/southeastern Canada and the
Pacific low turning into a weaker shortwave traversing across the
southern US. Medium-range guidance does show a shortwave on the
southwest periphery of the larger system moving through our area
Friday night. Consensus keeps a dry forecast with a lack of moisture
for this system. Temperatures remain cool through this time period
with little spread in the ensemble data. Friday and Saturday
mornings could bring areas of frost to northern parts of the area,
mainly north of I-70, where lows are forecast in the mid 30s along
with light winds and mainly clear skies.

By the start of next week, the upper pattern has low-amplitude
ridging moving towards the area, still keeping us in between two
systems to our east and west. The increasing heights favor a warming
trend with highs returning to the 70s and 80s, but it should be
noted that the spread still increases towards the end of the
forecast period. Tuesday looks like the next time period to watch
for increasing storm chances as an upper low approaches from the
southwest US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR prevails with high pressure keeping winds light and variable
through the nighttime period. Winds become westerly Thursday morning
before a weak boundary shifts winds to the northwest early in the
afternoon. There is also a 30% chance for scattered showers/storms
near terminals for a few hours in the afternoon. Thus, have included
a PROB30 group for that timeframe.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey