460
FXUS63 KTOP 232331
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers impact portions of north central and east
  central Kansas Sunday and again on Monday.

- Next week`s forecast features temps below normal and occasional
  rain chances, highest and most widespread being on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Cold front is tracking southward this afternoon into southeast
Kansas. Accompanying cloud cover is clearing from north to south as
drier air is noted by dewpoints into the 50s entering northern
Kansas. This cooler and drier airmass spreads into the region
overnight as lows fall into the low and middle 50s. Clouds increase
from the west Sunday morning, as an embedded wave and weak
isentropic lift develops scattered showers across mainly north
central Kansas. There is a low probability for these showers to
reach eastern Kansas by the afternoon, otherwise most locations are
dry, cloudy, and cool with highs in the mid-upper 70s. If rainfall
is more widespread into the afternoon, low 70s are more probable.

Another stronger upper trough coming off the high plains is likely
to bring widespread rainfall towards western and portions of central
Kansas late Sunday into Monday. Influence from the ridge axis
holding over much of northeast Kansas should divert most of the
measurable precipitation to areas south of I-70 as well as north
central areas. The probability for 0.5 inches or greater rainfall in
this area is from 15-30%. Expansive cloud cover and scattered rain
showers result in Monday being tied with Thursday as the coolest of
the week with highs in the low 70s.

The next mid level disturbance is coming into better agreement among
guidance in terms of location and timing to impact much of the CWA
late Wednesday into Thursday. Differences in QPF amounts remain with
a 50-70% chance of at least 0.5 inches or more rainfall along and
south of I-70. This drops between 30-50% for rainfall amounts
greater than 1 inch in the aforementioned areas. Nevertheless,
likely pops were mentioned for this period, dropping to low chances
thereafter as models differ on the upper air pattern heading into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be
SCT-BKN mid clouds, with bases at or above 10000 FT, developing
through the early morning hours of Sunday but should become
more scattered by 18Z SUN. Dry air advection this evening should
prevent any ground fog from developing by sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Gargan