528
FXUS63 KTOP 312331
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A hot a dry pattern has developed and looks to stay in place through
 the week, likely beyond.

-Well above average temperatures will approach records at times -
 mainly overnight lows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The pattern across the CONUS this afternoon consists of a large mid-
level ridge centered over the southeastern US, southwest flow aloft
from the Desert Southwest into the High Plains and Midwest, a compact
low over south-central Canada and a trough axis off the Pacific
Northwest coastline. There is also a tropical system just south of
Louisiana that is set to impact portions of eastern TX early this
week. At the sfc, there remains an inverted trough/weak cold front across
far northern KS where temperatures are a few degrees cooler. Most
locations south of that boundary are approaching 100 degrees this
afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher. The current
Heat Advisory continues until 7PM today.

The sfc boundary looks to push northward tonight as a LLJ develops,
keeping any rain chances north of the area. A very similar pattern
looks to remain in place through the rest of the workweek, allowing
for south/southwesterly flow and very warm 925-850mb temps to keep
well above average temps in place heading into early September.
Afternoon highs should be around 100 degrees each day with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s. For comparison, average highs are
currently in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Dew points each
afternoon should range from the mid to upper 60s, which will cause
heat index values to stay in the 100 to 105 degree range. Have opted
to not continue the Heat Advisory with marginal conditions in place
most afternoons this week. That said, however, those spending time
outdoors should remain cautious of the heat and take proper steps to
avoid heat related illnesses that can set in quickly.

Long range models seem to be in agreement with this hot and dry
stretch of weather continuing through the weekend and likely into
next week as the upper ridge expands directly over the central US.
The NBM spread in high temperatures increases slightly toward early
next week and the going forecast tries to lower temps as a potential
sfc cold front approaches the area. Am thinking that front might get
washed out before it can make a difference and that we will see the
temps trend back toward triple digits as that timeframe nears.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue. Winds will be modestly, mainly less
than 12 knots from the SSE to SSW. Some minor gusts are possible
during peak heating Tuesday. The diurnal low-level jet again looks
weak with little change in direction or speed so no LLWS will be
included.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

August 31    Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947   77
             Concordia  81, set in 1947            75


September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            76
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            76


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            78
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            77


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage
CLIMATE...Poage/Teefey