821
FXUS63 KTOP 021845
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
  Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday
  night (50-85% for both).

- Some of the storms Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night may produce
  1 inch hail

- There will be another chance for severe storms Thursday night
  through Friday night.

- Temperatures return to above normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Most deterministic and ensemble blend models are in good agreement
with an upper level trough across the western US shifting east
across the Plains Wednesday night.

As the H5 trough moves east across the central Rockies, a lee side
sfc low will deepen across the TX PNHDL Tuesday. A surface
front will also push southward across the CWA during the
afternoon hours of Tuesday.

Ahead of the surface front, Tuesday afternoon highs will reach the
mid to upper 60s across the far southeast counties of the CWA. North
of the front highs will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s.
850mb moisture advection will increase the isentropic lift
across the CWA during the afternoon hours. The MUCAPE should
remain below 500 J/KG, so we may see rain with a few elevated
thunderstorms. During the evening hours as the H5 trough moves
east into the central and southern high Plains, DCVA ahead of
the H5 trough will over spread the region and cause additional
ascent for more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Tuesday evening, MUCAPE will increase to 800-1200 J/KG with
effective shear increasing to 40 KTS. Thus, a few of the elevated
storms may produce small hail. If any of the elevated storm begin to
develop mid level rotation, then there may be some severe hail,
with the best chance south of I-70. Through the night the cooler
air mass will become deeper as the front surges southward
across OK. The better isentropic lift will shift south of the
CWA during the morning hours of Wednesday. However, ascent ahead
of the H5 trough will keep periods of rain falling through
Wednesday. East central KS will see the highest rainfall amounts
from Tonight through Wednesday with 0.5 to 0.75 inches
expected. The western half of the CWA will only see 0.1 to 0.25
inches of rainfall.

Long term forecast...

Thursday through Monday:

The H5 trough across the eastern Plains early Thursday morning will
lift northeast across the southern Great Lakes. An H5 trough will
move into the Western US on Thursday. A lee sfc trough will deepen
across the high Plains and southerly winds across eastern KS will
allow high temperatures on Thursday to warm into the lower to mid
70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, a strong LLJ will develop
across the Plains and advect richer moisture north. Elevated
thunderstorms will develop during the early morning hours of
Friday and some of these elevated storms may produce severe
hail. The ECMWF and Canadian models show the H5 trough across
the western US shearing out a bit and becoming more positively
tilted. This may keep the Pacific front/dryline across west
central KS during the late afternoon hours, where the
environment will be favorable for supercell thunderstorms. These
storms will move into north central KS but will probably begin
to congeal into line segments as they move east across the CWA.
The primary hazard will switch to more of a wind and hail threat
during the evening and overnight hours. However, the GFS model
is more progressive and shifts the H5 trough a bit farther east,
which could push the dryline/Pacific front across north central
KS during Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along
the dryline/Pacific front will be in an environment with strong
vertical windshear and perhaps moderate instability, especially
if skies clear after the morning storms. The combination of
strong vertical wind shear and MLCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg may
cause some thunderstorms to evolve into supercell thunderstorms
with all hazards possible. We are still four days away and the
numerical model solutions will most likely change over time.

Look for drier weather heading into next weekend with a slight cool
down on Saturday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures will warm into
the 60s early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The IFR stratus ceilings will hold through the afternoon hours.
This evening light fog and drizzle will develop, which will
drop stratus ceilings down to LIFR and visibilities may drop to
1 to 2 miles during the early morning hours of Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan