399
FXUS63 KTOP 121121
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm through Friday with highs in the 70s.

- Large system moves in Friday bringing chances for rain/storms
  and elevated fire danger across the area. See fire weather
  discussion for further details.

- Near-average temperatures expected over the weekend with highs
staying in the 50s before 70s return Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows upper-level
moisture advecting over northeast Kansas in response to a weak wave
and inverted surface troughing, a diffuse upper low tracking east
across the 4-corners region, and an advancing deep long wave trough
just off the PNW coast. Throughout the day today, the upper low over
the 4-corners region will track further east across the Red River
and keeping any precipitation off to our south. Mid and high cloud
cover will filter over northeastern Kansas during the afternoon, but
this should not limit temperatures reaching the mid 70s across the
area once again. Similar and warm conditions will be expected
Thursday as low level flow returns to the south by the afternoon.
With ample sunshine and WAA throughout the day, expect afternoon
temperatures to top out in the upper 70s and some low 80s!

The main focus this forecast begins to enter the region Friday
morning as a longwave trough begins to eject over the southern
Rockies. Recent trends in guidance has been the faster occlusion of
the system as depicted by the GFS and Euro even as early as Friday
morning across western Kansas. This trend seems to add a bit more
uncertainty to the fire weather and severe weather concerns across
the area. That said, winds will still be gusty during the afternoon
with a dry air slowly working in from the west, so a fire weather
risk will still be possible. How afternoon winds and RH values
coincide with each other is still in question. For further
details, see the Fire Weather Discussion below. As for rain and
storms with this system, the system is still on track to push a
dry slot across most of central Kansas and with majority of 50+
degree dewpoints staying across far eastern Kansas and into
Missouri. This should continue to keep the greatest risk for
storms off to our east but rain chances on the back side of the
upper low should continue across north-central and northeastern
Kansas into early Saturday morning. All that said, how
widespread precipitation is depends on how strong the surge of
dry air is from the southwest. With recent trends beginning to
occlude the system sooner than previous runs had, we could begin
to see a more diffuse dry air punch and more widespread wrap
around precipitation. Will continue to monitor trends over the
next few forecast cycles, so stay tuned for additional
information.

Colder and drier air moves in by Saturday following the eastward
push of the upper low. CAA through the day Saturday will keep
temperatures closer to climatological averages, topping out in the
50s. Sunday should begin to trend warmer as mid-level heights
increase and warmer 850mb temperatures mix down to the surface.
Highs Sunday should be closer to 60s for most. The warming trend
continues for Monday and Tuesday as 70s return with some areas
possibly seeing 80 degrees again! These temperatures should not last
into Wednesday as our next longwave trough pushes a surface boundary
through the area Tuesday, ushering in colder air for the remainder
of the work week. Saturday through Tuesday will also see very
dry afternoon air that will pose the risk for elevated fire
weather concerns, especially by Monday and Tuesday as winds
begin to increase closer to 15-20 mph. Will continue to monitor
the risk of widespread fire danger over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR TAFs will continue with light northeasterly winds and
scattered high clouds through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Winds will begin to increase Friday mid morning as pressure
gradients tighten across the state. Sustained winds out of the south
during the afternoon will likely range from 20-25 mph with gusts
upwards of 40 mph. As the surface low/trough moves across north-
central Kansas, winds will likely decrease within the trough with
increasing chances for precipitation. A dry slot is still expected
to occur just to the south and east of the main surface trough
during the afternoon Friday and should help to drop RH values into
the 20-30 percent range. This could lead to some very high fire
danger conditions, especially across far east-central Kansas where
the lowest RH values and strongest winds seem to overlap the best.
Fuel loading is still high and should be well cured by Friday with
the expected warm weather today and Thursday. All that said, there
is still some uncertainty with the strength of the dry air push as
recent trends have begun to occlude the cyclone quicker than
previously thought. If this trend continues, we could see a weaker
push of dry air on the backside of the upper low helping to mitigate
low afternoon RH values. Will continue to monitor further trends in
the forecast, especially with higher resolution modeling becoming
available over the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Griesemer