595
FXUS63 KTOP 011929
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
229 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm with increasing humidity Wednesday into the
  holiday weekend.

- Chances for storms return for the 4th of July and linger into early
  next week. Highest chances (35-55%) come Friday evening into
  early Saturday and again Saturday evening into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Northwest flow aloft and surface ridging across the Central Plains
has created for a pleasant first day of July with lower humidity,
sunny skies, and temperatures right around climatological norms in
the mid to upper 80s. Clear skies overnight will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will fall into the 60s. The mid-level
ridge currently over the Rockies translates east over the Plains
tomorrow, bringing the return of southerly low-level flow. Warming
low-level temperatures and increasing moisture will result in a
warmer and more humid day on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid
90s. Guidance keeps at least a weak capping inversion in place
through the day and a lack of forcing will preclude any pulse
showers or storms.

A pattern change begins Thursday as a western trough begins to nudge
east towards the Plains. Upper-level flow becomes southwesterly by
late Thursday with continued moisture advection allowing dewpoints
to climb into the mid to upper 60s. Forecast soundings depict a
typical summertime airmass in place: an uncapped and unstable
environment with minimal shear and no obvious forcing mechanism.
Thus, most areas will remain dry, but a few isolated showers and
storms are possible Thursday afternoon during peak heating before
any activity dissipates with sunset Thursday evening.

Chances for showers and storm increase into the 4th of July as a
shortwave ejects northeast across the Central and Northern Plains. A
lead wave could spark some showers and storms during the late
morning into the afternoon with better chances (35-55%) arriving
during the evening into the overnight hours as the main wave ejects.
Details remain uncertain, including the timing and track of
shortwaves and associated storms, but this activity could pose a
risk to those outside for any 4th of July festivities. Shear is weak
overall, keeping chances for severe weather on the low end, but any
storms that do impact the area could produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Particulars about timing, location, and intensity of
storms will become more clear as we get closer, so stay tuned for
updates.

Flow becomes more zonal by Saturday as the ridge is pushed east and
dampens. Periodic perturbations moving through the zonal flow keep
chances for showers and storms into next week, but it won`t be a
washout. Another maximum in precipitation chances (40-55%) comes
late Saturday into Sunday morning as a passing shortwave nudges a
surface boundary towards the area. This boundary may stall and be
the focal point for additional showers and storms into next week as
several more waves eject through the zonal flow. Highs remain around
normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s with humid
conditions persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Winds slowly veer through the remainder
of the day, becoming southerly overnight and increasing to
5-10kts after sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan