991
FXUS63 KTOP 311133
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Seasonably warm weather is expected today before cooler air
 arrives for New Year`s Day.

-A warming trend begins this weekend.

-Dry weather persists for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A warm air advection pattern will set up today as surface winds
shift slightly to the southwest while 1000-500 mb thickness
increases over the area. This will keep temperatures on the warm
side of average in the 50s for this last day of the year. Low
pressure deepening north of the area today will bring a cold front
through late this evening. A stratus cloud deck and a much cooler
air mass will move in behind the boundary, making conditions feel
more winter-like to start the new year. Not much changes to sensible
conditions on Friday with highs forecast to remain near normal in
the low to mid 40s. Winds will remain light and sky conditions
will be mainly cloudy.

The next warm up will commence this weekend when an upper level
ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will really begin to
surge on Sunday as southerly flow returns ahead of low pressure
north and west of the region. The NBM has a 30 to 50 percent chance
of exceeding 60 degrees for the southwestern half of the CWA (lower
chances in far northeastern KS). Without much of a pattern change,
chances to exceed 60 degrees increase (40 to 70 percent) next
Monday. The next front then looks to move through early next
Tuesday, ending the warming trend. POPs through this timeframe
remain less than 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Light west winds will increase to near 10 kts this afternoon
from the west-southwest. A cold front will move through late
this evening and shift winds to the north-northeast tonight. An
MVFR/IFR cloud deck is expected to move in behind the front and
impact TAFs around 10Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey