748
FXUS63 KTOP 292258
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
558 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances spread across the area tonight into early Thursday.
  Severe weather concerns remain small, mainly late tonight.

- Heat indicies near 105 south of I-35 again Wednesday.

- Much cooler Thursday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Upper ridge remains in place to the south with cold front making
slow southward progress across eastern Colorado into northeast
Nebraska. CAMs remain fairly consistent with convection forming
along it through early evening, moving east-northeast with time.
Modest southerly flow will keep the boundary layer from completely
decoupling, and downdraft CAPE could be enough to support some
marginally-severe winds if storms can track across the north, though
the combined potential for this remains less than 10% with steering
flow away from the area and weak shear to support persistent
convection. Many CAMs form isolated storms in the local area
over the next several hours. Forcing for ascent is weak at best
though 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1200 J/kg of DCAPE will make any
updrafts worth watching for downbursts.

Cold front slowly works through late tonight into Wednesday. Along
with variability on the front`s speed, convective trends vary
considerably among models, and this is not unexpected with a
front with little support aloft this time of year. Deep-layer
shear looks to remain under 20 knots though MLCAPE may again
approach 2500 J/kg but the uncertainty makes severe weather
concerns modest. Have erred on the side of caution and extended
the Heat Advisory into Wednesday in southeastern areas where the
front may well not pass until late in the day. A more westerly
wind may keep dewpoints a bit lower and heat indices above 108
look unlikely.

Should see a mainly dry period for late Wednesday night through the
early weekend with the front continuing south and northwest flow
aloft. 850 mb temperatures drop around 10 C by Thursday with some
stratus suggested for highs 20-25F cooler than recent days. Only a
slow warmup expected into next week with modest return flow. There
is decent agreement in an upper wave moving southeast across the
area Sunday into Sunday night for the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Best chance for showers and storms overnight will stay north of
the main terminals, so will stick with a wind-driven forecast
for now. Winds stay generally around or below 5 kts, shifting
from the southeast this evening to the northeast tomorrow
morning behind thunderstorm outflow and an eventual cold front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Reese