288
FXUS63 KTOP 071704
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers ending this morning with seasonable temperatures today
through Thursday.

- Mostly dry weather through the weekend with temperatures slowly
returning into the low to mid 80s.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation comes next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a long wave trough
axis across the central Plains with ample moisture embedded in a jet
streak that extends from the Great Lakes back to northern Kansas.
Closer to the surface, a surface trough has made its way into
central MO and eastern OK with the 850mb trough axis lagging a bit
behind, still in central Kansas. Isentropic ascent and convergence
along the 850mb boundary with help from the jet streak aloft has
again led to scattered showers and a few storms stretching from
northeastern KS to southwestern KS. Scattered elevated showers,
possibly a few rumbles of thunder, will continue into the mid
morning hours today with chances decreasing from northwest to
southeast following the 850mb trough axis progression. Strong
subsidence in the low and mid levels moves in behind helping to
clear out cloud cover in northeast and east-central Kansas by the
afternoon today. With light north winds and mostly clear skies by
the afternoon today, temperatures will top out in the upper 60s.
With the surface ridge axis settled over eastern Kansas into
Wednesday afternoon, near-average temperatures will be expected with
mostly clear skies leading to a nice, fall-like afternoon.

By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the surface and low-level
ridges slide east and returns flow back to the south. Weak mid-level
energy advecting out of Nebraska paired with a nocturnal LLJ across
central Kansas may lead to some elevated showers Thursday morning,
but moisture seems fairly limited, so chances are less than 15% at
this time. A similar set up Thursday night into Friday morning may
play out as the LLJ shifts into eastern Kansas. Some elevated
showers may be able to develop, but again, chances are not high
(~10%). Outside of this, a dry and warming trend continues into the
weekend as mid-level heights increase across the central Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis deepens a surface low across eastern Colorado over the
weekend as our next long wave trough approaches from the western
CONUS. Deep afternoon mixing should return gusty and warm conditions
by Friday through Sunday as afternoon highs reach the low to mid
80s. Long range guidance still is hinting at this large trough
entering the central US by early next week bringing our next chance
of widespread precipitation and perhaps another airmass change. This
could help spell an end to this warm start to October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

With drier air moving in, the last of the MVFR ceilings
are exiting to the southeast of KFOE. Skies will continue to clear
through the rest of the afternoon, with north winds around 10
kts. With the clear skies and winds calming overnight, there
will likely be some fog towards sunrise. It remains to be seen
how widespread and dense it will be, but confident in at least
some fog towards KTOP and KMHK in the river valley.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Reese