856
FXUS63 KTOP 061945
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
245 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening before
clearing out early tomorrow morning.

- Cooler temperatures through Wednesday, followed by another warming
trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Surface observations this afternoon show that the cold front is
nearing Manhattan and slowly pushing southeast. Clouds and showers
ahead of the front are keeping temperatures in the 60s for most,
with just far east-central Kansas jumping into the upper 70s and
even 80s where sun has persisted. Behind the front, temperatures are
much cooler, still in the mid 50s at Concordia and Marysville. Into
the evening, we`ll continue to see scattered showers and a few weak
storms in the vicinity of the front. Isentropic ascent increases a
bit by late evening, so we should see a bit of an uptick in rain
coverage by that time. Most places along and east of the Flint Hills
will see an additional quarter to half inch of rain, with some
isolated higher amounts with any persistent convection. Tomorrow
will be much cooler behind the front, as highs stay in the 60s even
with sun returning by mid-day. Surface ridging moves overhead by
early Wednesday, allowing for one of our cooler mornings yet this
autumn - lows in the mid 40s.

Behind the departing upper trough, we`ll see upper ridging build
back across the Plains as a strong upper low settles over the West
Coast. This will result in a steady warming trend into the weekend.
Highs get back into the 80s by Friday. A couple weak disturbances
move around the crest of the ridge Thursday and again Friday, but
with plenty of dry air around, confidence in seeing any meaningful
precipitation is low. May start to see a bit more of an active
pattern by late weekend and early next week as the West Coast upper
low gets kicked out towards the Plains by another digging trough.
However confidence is low that far out, and for now the majority of
guidance keeps the best forcing for precipitation to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The cold front is nearing KMHK, with 5-10 kt winds turning
more northerly and IFR stratus prevailing behind the front. This
front will near KTOP and KFOE by mid-evening. Showers along and
behind the front will remain scattered through the afternoon,
becoming more widespread by mid-evening and into the overnight
hours. Some brief lightning is also possible, but for now too low a
probability at any one point/time to include in TAFs. Expecting
clearing from west to east during the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese