689
FXUS63 KTOP 111718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms continue through Monday morning. Rainfall rates
  of 1-3 inches per hour could lead to flooding, especially
  along and south of Interstate 70 where the Flood Watch remains
  in effect.

- Chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and storms continue
  Monday and Tuesday before warmer and drier conditions are
  favored Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms continued to
develop and slowly push east northeast across southern Kansas.
This complex will make it into our area shortly. It appears the
heaviest rain will fall along and south of the I-35 corridor,
where around three inches of rain could fall. The storm complex
may make it as far north as I-70, but rain rates should be lower
to the north as the best instability and lift are likely to be
focused further south. Around 0.5-1.5 inches is the most likely
amount for the I-70 corridor. The heaviest rain should exit the
area shortly after sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible through Tuesday, more so across eastern Kansas
than central, as the upper-level trough doesn`t fully exit our
area until Tuesday night. With thick cloud cover today,
temperatures will likely struggle to reach the low 80s.
Temperatures will slowly rise through the week as an upper-level
ridge starts to build back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MVFR stratus is scattering out to VFR shortly aft 18Z with
gradual clearing anticipated by early evening. There is a low
probability for TSRA to redevelop near KTOP/KFOE aft 22Z,
however model variability on timing/coverage of storms is too
low for a PROB30 mention. There are some indications for mid
clouds to increase aft 09Z, reducing the fog potential Tues.
morning at KTOP.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Prieto