017
FXUS63 KTOP 091105
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heat advisory is in effect from noon until 9pm today.
  Temperatures are expected to feel like it is 103 to 110 degrees.

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) tonight
  and into Thursday.

- A break from the rain is expected Friday. More rain chances are
  forecast for the weekend with mild temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Apparent warm air advection has cause additional showers and storms
to develop behind the severe storms that occurred earlier last night.
These storms appear to be elevated and have not been as intense. With
the initial line of storms working over the airmass pretty good, I
expected this trend to continue. The lift is progged to weaken
towards sunrise as the low level jet veers to the west-southwest.

It is hard to figure out what will trigger storms this afternoon with
the models showing the upper trough remaining west of the forecast
area and any weak dry line also remaining west of the area. The RAP
is going an interesting thing in trying to keep a sudo warm front and
overrunning north of the boundary. With a strengthening pressure
gradient and deep mixing, it is hard to imagine this panning out. So
think the likely scenario is for storms to once again form out west
and potentially move into parts of north central KS. If storms
move into the area, a very unstable airmass with MUCAPE over 5000
J/kg would support a risk for severe weather.

The better chances for storms look to be Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak cold front pushes into northeast KS. This should
act as a focus for convergence and lift with a very moist and
unstable airmass ahead of the boundary. Bulk shear may be a little
better and again we`ll need to watch for severe potential. This front
is progged to still be in the area Thursday when a shortwave swings
through the base of the upper low north of the forecast area. This
should push through front south and potentially trigger additional
thunderstorms and severe potential Thursday afternoon.

Surface ridging is expected to move into the region Friday bringing a
break from the precip chances and cooler highs in the 80s.
Unfortunately this break doesn`t last long as shortwave energy
continues to rotate through the base of the upper low to the north.
So the forecast has chances for showers and storms through the
weekend. Eventually another surface ridge should push south by Monday
with some cooler temperatures and drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

With convection moving out, expect VFR conditions to become
prevailing as a strengthening pressure gradient mixes out the
boundary layer. Will keep a tempo for MVFR stratus as the RAP and
NAM indicate a brief period of low level saturation at TOP and FOE
before the mixing kicks in. This mixing should persist through the
overnight and limit potential for LLWS. Confidence in any convection
out west making it as far as the terminals is low so will not include
a mention of precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters