107
FXUS63 KTOP 101717
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue early this morning before coming
  to an end by mid-morning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
  across east-central Kansas.

- An active pattern holds into the weekend with several chances
  for showers and storms, although dry time will likely be
  mixed in. Temperatures hold near or slightly above normal.

- A cold front approaches the area Monday night, bringing
  increased chances for showers and storms and another shot of
  cooler air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Isentropic ascent and a weak passing wave have led to an increase in
coverage of showers and storms early this morning, primarily south
of Interstate 70 along the nose of the LLJ. While severe
weather is unlikely, effective shear of ~20kts along with 1000
J/kg of elevated instability could lead to a couple of stronger
storms capable of producing gusty winds. There remains some
concern for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with PWATs
around 2" and storm motions parallel to the elevated boundary.
00z HREF members are less expansive with the 1"+ rainfall
footprint than yesterday, but still show bands of heavier
rainfall in the 1-3" range across east-central Kansas. Rainfall
rates have been as high as 0.5-1.5" per hour so far, which could
lead to these higher amounts in areas impacted by multiple
rounds of storms. All-in- all, think the dry antecedent
conditions will keep flooding concerns on the low end, but could
see some localized flooding along and south of Interstate 35.

Precipitation comes to an end this morning and skies clear from
north to south. A much more comfortable day is expected with highs
in the 80s. There is a low chance for a pop-up shower or storm this
afternoon/evening across east-central Kansas as model soundings show
a weakly capped airmass in place. Forcing is weak and subsidence
behind this morning`s wave should work to suppress convection and
keep conditions dry. High boundary layer moisture, light surface
winds, and clear skies create a favorable set-up for fog to develop
tonight into Friday morning. Have input patchy fog for now, but some
guidance suggests fog could be more widespread.

Quieter weather builds into the area Friday as mid-level subsidence
behind the shortwave trough spreads across eastern Kansas. Low-level
flow returning to the south with mostly clear skies should help to
return temperatures back into the upper 80s by the mid to late
afternoon. Rain and storm chances will begin to increase again by
Friday night and through much of Saturday with the next upper level
disturbance moving off the central Rockies. Guidance remains
mixed in the development of an MCS Friday evening/night. The
global models and ensembles continue to show the highest chances
of a convective complex forming and potentially impacting the
forecast area, while short-range guidance largely fails to
generate any convection. Will need to monitor trends as any MCS
that does impact the area could bring strong to severe storms.
With scattered precipitation and ample cloud cover for most of
Saturday, high temps should stay around the mid 80s.

By Sunday and Monday, a strong PNW upper low will begin to eject
across the northern Rockies as the southwestern US ridge expands
west into the southern Plains. Breezy south winds will and
diurnal mixing Sunday and Monday could be offset by clouds and
precipitation. If cloud/precipitation coverage is less, highs
could be back in the 90s for most.

Relatively cooler temperatures should come again as a frontal
boundary moves into the area Monday afternoon and evening as
the PNW upper low lifts across the northern Plains. An
associated surface trough extending from Minnesota to western
Kansas should track east across the state through the day
Monday, increasing storm chances yet again. With better height
falls well north of the area, the surface boundary is expected
to stall out somewhere across southern Kansas by Tuesday.
Scattered storm and rain chances along this stalled boundary
remain common across much of the area Tuesday and in turn, keep
temperatures on the cooler side. Long range ensemble guidance
for temperature spreads Tuesday and beyond are still greater
than 10 degrees so confidence in how long the cool air sticks
around is still low. That said, deterministic long range
guidance is hinting at a stout Arctic low digging out of central
Canada by mid to late next week that could bring some more
fall-like air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Lingering MVFR stratus is expected to scatter to VFR early this
period and continue to clear through the afternoon. Clear skies,
light winds and ground moisture from previous rain could set the
stage for fog development tonight. Felt confidence was high enough to
go ahead and include reduced visibilities in TAFs with this update.
However, adjustments to timing and flight category are likely needed
with subsequent TAF issuances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan/Griesemer
AVIATION...Teefey