663
FXUS63 KTOP 121126
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected today.

- A cooldown arrives Monday along with scattered showers.

- Temperatures warm back up mid-week, followed by returning rain
chances (20-40%) Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The upper air pattern as of 0830Z this morning consists of a broad
trough across the western CONUS, a low moving up the Atlantic coast
in the Southeast which is about to merge with a smaller low moving
into New England, and an amplified ridge extending from TX to the
upper Great Lakes, sandwiched between the troughing to our west and
east. At the surface, low pressure extends from the western Dakotas
southward to eastern CO and high pressure sits over MI, leaving a
tight pressure gradient over us as the low to our west deepens. This
has kept gusty SSE winds in western portions of our forecast area,
which has allowed temperatures there to remain fairly steady in the
mid to upper 60s. While not quite as strong in the east, the winds
are still enough to keep mild temperatures in the 60s. Breezy
conditions will commence area-wide as we get into the daytime hours
as the pressure gradient shifts east and mixing deepens, bringing
gusts to 25-35mph. This should help boost temperatures well into the
80s this afternoon, even approaching 90 in some places.

A cold front is progged to approach our area and should reach our
north central KS counties by 00-01Z. CAMs aren`t overly excited
about developing precip along the boundary itself, but they continue
to show some isolated showers ahead of the front late this afternoon
into the evening. Forecast soundings have limited moisture and
instability with cloud bases around 10kft, so am not sold on rain
reaching the ground with any isolated shower that may develop aloft.
The same story holds true as the front continues to push south
through the area overnight. The HRRR largely remains dry during this
period, and even the ARW and NAM Nest (which show more showers in
east central KS) have dry forecast soundings below the cloud decks.
Better rain coverage should eventually move north from OK thanks to
a shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft, but latest trends
indicate the arrival of any meaningful rainfall could be delayed
until late morning Monday or even early afternoon, at which point
soundings finally show some improvement in moisture quality. The
best rain coverage looks to be Monday afternoon through early
Tuesday morning, though it will still be scattered, meaning rain
won`t be constantly falling that entire time period at any one
location. Amounts overall look light, generally expected to be
around a few tenths of an inch. The cooler air mass behind the front
plus cloud cover should limit temperatures to the upper 60s to 70s
Monday and Tuesday.

The upper ridge looks to build back north Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, favoring dry conditions and temperatures warming back to
around 80 by mid-week. The next upper trough approaches late in the
week, and while there are notable differences in how that feature
evolves, it does bring some chance for precipitation once again (20-
40%) Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions continue with winds being the main impact to
aviation this period. Southerly winds increase through the
morning, becoming gusty to 25-30 kts for the afternoon before
diminishing with sunset. A cold front then switches winds to the
NNE late this evening. Any rain chances should hold off until
after this TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha