471
FXUS63 KTOP 121051
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
551 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential returns Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are the main
  concerns.

- Highs mainly in the 70s and 80s other than some 90s Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Benign conditions today with weak surface high pressure over the
lower Missouri valley. Modest south winds return with plenty of sun
for highs in the 80s. Moisture return on this flow brings dewpoints
back into the 50s and 60s into the central High Plains.
Thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon to the west and also
form nearby overnight on modest isentropic lift with a low-level jet
around 35 knots. Most guidance remains dry for the local area but
went ahead with small chances for most given the pattern. MUCAPE
reaches around 1500 J/kg and could support some stronger storms.

The main thunderstorm activity in this forecast remains to be
expected Saturday afternoon and evening as instability rises further
ahead of a cold front that enters the area. Confidence in convective
timing and placement remains muted based on considerable spread in
CAMs but SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg is highly likely per HREF with NAM
and GFS suggesting 30-40 knots of bulk shear for severe weather
potential. Limited low-level shear and veered surface winds should
keep tornado potential in check but there is some model similarity
in bowing segments developing for both a wind and hail threat.
Latest precipitable water progs haven`t changed much but
probabilities for the heavier rains has diminished, perhaps given
the bowing trends mentioned. Dry condition for most yesterday
through early Saturday should allow for some soil drying but at
least isolated flooding remains in play.

Highs for western areas could approach 90 Saturday but stronger high
pressure builds in Sunday for highs in the 70s into Monday.
Southerly winds return Tuesday and Wednesday with decent agreement
on the next cold front on the latter day. Moisture quality is more
limited with this front but some convection may accompany it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will dominate with light south to southeast winds.
There is small potential for precipitation late but too low for
inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage