309
FXUS63 KTOP 212007
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
207 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries to light snow showers possible (<20% chance for
  measurable amounts) into the early evening.

- Warming trend on track into the early week and little change into
  the late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The upper flow pattern over the western and central CONUS has
transitioned to a west-northwest flow per recent water vapor
imagery. A modest upper low over southwest Kansas spread several
inches of snow over a small area of northwest Kansas this morning
with radar imagery showing small areas of increasing returns in
central Kansas. Cloud bases there remain above 9000 feet as of 19Z
but forecast soundings show some respectable lapse rates around 600
mb. Could see enough shower activity in the
frontogenetical/deformation area of this low produce some light
snow to the ground mainly along and south of I-70 over the next
several hours before the low departs into southwest Missouri. Rather
dry air in the lower levels on the west flank of the departing
surface ridge should help keep amounts mitigated. Will watch latest
observation and model trends for final precipitation determination.

Low-level flow will maintain a westerly component through the next
several days with notable 850mb temperature rises of around 11 C
from today into Saturday and another 5 C Sunday. Medium-range model
forecast temperatures show a not-unexpected range of several degrees
for these days but also show a reasonable handle on the current snow
field and it diminishing with time so have kept NBM temps for these
periods. Several weaker upper waves traverse the flow into the
middle next week (Sunday, Monday night, and around Wednesday)
bringing some periods of high cloud, though the latter wave shows
small potential for some light rain. Winds could get a bit breezy
behind the Wednesday system with some drop in temperatures, but
return flow looks to keep temperatures mild Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions continue to be expected. There remains to be
small potential for light snow in the 20Z-00Z period.
The main impact would be limiting visibilities with low levels
remaining dry. Modest south to southwest winds should be the
rule.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage