189
FXUS63 KTOP 121106
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
506 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing winter storm this morning remains on track with
  widespread snowfall totals of 3 to 7 inches. Snow should
  begin to taper off west to east this afternoon.

- Bitter cold temperatures follow late tonight with minimum wind chills
  from 10 to 12 degrees below zero. Far north central Kansas is
  most likely to see wind chill readings from 15 to 20 degrees
  below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this
  area and may need to be expanded.

- A second, less potent storm system is progged to arrive in the form
  of rain late Friday night, transitioning to a wintry mix and
  all snow during the day Saturday. Light snow accumulations are
  possible, however do not appear comparable to the current
  winter storm.


- A few rounds of strong cold fronts bring bitterly cold
  temperatures beginning Sunday morning and again by mid week
  with morning wind chills from 5 to 15 degrees below zero.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The well advertised winter storm is in full swing across the region
this morning as the main upper trough axis lifts through the
Rockies. Much of north central Kansas has observed moderate to
occasionally heavy snow at times while east central areas are just
now beginning to see a decent frontogenetical band of snow that will
accumulate between now and sunrise. Most models are in good
agreement for the heaviest snow to occur between 3 AM and 9 AM west
to east before gradually tapering off to light snow for the
remainder of the morning and afternoon. How long snow lingers into
the afternoon across far eastern Kansas is a bit uncertain as the
last several runs of the HRRR/RAP/WRF models hold on to the light
snow through at least 3 PM, resulting in an additional 1 to 2 inches
potentially. Regardless, snow totals have not changed much from the
previous forecast with highest amounts of 5 to 7 inches for north
central and portions of far northeast Kansas while 3 to 5 inches is
more common south of the I-70 corridor. Will likely see isolated
higher amounts given the drier nature of the snow and blowing snow
throughout the day as north winds sustain from 10 to 15 mph with
gusts around 20 to 25 mph.

Arctic 1030 mb sfc high pressure slides into Kansas this evening as
clouds attempt to thin and winds become light. Forecast lows are
coldest near the highway 36 corridor where minimum wind chill values
drop to 15 to 20 degrees below zero after midnight. Elsewhere, wind
chill values are still hazardous at 7 to 12 degrees below zero.
Opted to go ahead with a Cold Weather Advisory for north central
areas where confidence is highest in reaching 15 degrees below zero
with possible expansion needed later today.

Quiet weather is short lived unfortunately as the next system begins
to deepen out west, returning winds to the south on Friday, becoming
strong in the afternoon from 15 to 25 mph sustained. Decent warm
advection with relatively low spread in NBM guidance warrants good
confidence for highs around 40 Friday, allowing for some melting
before the next round of precip arrives late Friday night. Ensembles
are persistent amongst themselves with not a particular strong
signal in terms of widespread QPF, especially given a stronger
southern stream shortwave trough cutting off much of the moisture
return. GFS ensembles are on the higher end while the Canadian and
EC ensembles are persistent with light rain switching to a brief
period of rain/freezing rain/snow mix followed by all snow Saturday
morning as the sub freezing airmass arrives. Lesser QPF amounts and
progressive nature of the forcing suggests little to no snow
accumulations this far out. In addition to the snowfall, it will be
a bitterly cold evening Sat. as temps fall into the teens, bottoming
out around 0 degrees Sunday morning. Minimum wind chill values may
once again reach advisory levels in the 10 to 18 degrees below zero
range.

Upper flow pattern remains active next week with several strong cold
fronts keeping temps below normal through at least mid week. Coldest
days are forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the teens
behind a back door cold front. Morning wind chills may once again
become dangerous in the 10 to 15 degree below zero range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions through 15Z as bands of light to
occasional moderate snow shift northeast across terminals. Cigs
improve aft 15Z to MVFR with light snow lingering through the
afternoon. As northerly winds calm under 10 kts this evening as
high pressure settles in, forecast soundings are consistent in
clouds thinning around 1500 feet. Cigs are most likely to clear
out after 09Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
Thursday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto