936
FXUS63 KTOP 051910
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
210 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool weather sticks around through tomorrow. Rain chances should
  end Wednesday morning.

- There is a 40-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  Saturday night.

- Much warmer weather is forecast for early next week when parts of
  the area could see highs in the 90s by next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The forecast area was under a qusi-zonal flow per the 19Z water
vapor imagery with a broad area of cyclonic flow over Canada and the
northern US and an upper trough over southern CA with southwest flow
into the southern plains. At the surface high pressure centered over
the northern high plains was nosing into the state with a cold front
stretching from the Ozarks into West TX.

The pattern is allowing weak perturbations to move across the area
resulting in light rain. Another weak embedded wave is progged to
move into a somewhat confluent mid level flow over eastern KS
tonight bringing another chance for rain. Based on moisture profiles
and better saturation across central KS, the higher POPs have been
shifted to the west. This is in line with the latest batch of CAMs
indicating better coverage for parts of central and north central
KS. The lowering of QPF and limited forecast radar returns over
northeast KS may be due to this mid level confluence and weak
subsidence. Mid level lapse rates are pretty shallow and being on
the cool side of the system should limit chances for deep moist
convection to near zero. Models prog the surface ridge to slowly
build into the central plains through the day Wednesday with dry air
moving south. This is forecast to bring an end to the precip chances
by the late morning. Continued cloud cover tonight is expected to
keep overnight lows in the lower 40s. North winds providing some
weak cold air advection Wednesday with lots of cloud cover should
limit much of a warm up and highs are forecast to remain in the
upper 50s.

An upper trough axis swinging along the back side of the northern
trough is progged to absorb the energy coming out of the southwest
Wednesday night and move east of the forecast area by Thursday
morning. This is expected to setup northwest flow over the central
plains heading into the weekend with dry weather to end the
workweek. Better insolation Thursday and Friday along with a
southwesterly low level return flow should allow temps to warm back
into the 70s.

A shortwave was noted in the 12Z operational models moving through
the northwest flow Saturday night. And the 00Z ensembles show a good
signal for measurable precip. This looks to be the next chance for
precip across the forecast area, and the forecast has POPs in the 40
to 60 percent range. This seems plausible as the 12Z GFS and ECMWF
have decent moisture advection ahead of the wave. A cold front
Saturday night is expected to provide a cooldown for Sunday.
Otherwise operational guidance and ensembles show a good signal for
warm weather returning for Saturday and early next week. By next
Tuesday temperatures have a reasonable chance of reaching the upper
80s and lower 90s. Ensemble and AI models are showing the seventy
fifth percentile for highs in the middle and upper 90s for some
locations across north central KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Occasional perturbations within the pattern is expected to bring
occasional -SHRA to the terminals. CAMs show a break in the precip
into the early evening. Otherwise models prog conditions to remain
steady state with CIGs around 10 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters