495
FXUS63 KTOP 241139
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
539 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate snow continues today, varying in intensity
through the morning and afternoon before eventually tapering off
northwest to southeast tonight into Sunday morning.

- Forecast snow totals have lowered slightly at 4-6" along and south
of I-70, still 2-4" for counties along the KS/NE border.

- Very cold air stays with us through Monday morning with the
coldest wind chills today and Monday. Temperatures moderate into mid-
week with dry weather next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

09Z water vapor imagery depicts the closed low near Mexico`s Baja
Peninsula starting to phase with the main upper trough, which is
positioned with its axis from the Rockies through the Northern
Plains. Broad isentropic ascent has led to widespread snowfall
across the area through the night with some weak 700mb frontogenesis
bringing some moderate snow bands at times. We are currently in the
peak of the event overall, with most snow expected to fall through
mid-morning and becoming lighter later this morning, especially
towards central KS. The latest short-term guidance isn`t exactly in
agreement on the timing of breaks in snowfall this morning and
afternoon, and some models are more widespread than others on
additional snowfall through the afternoon, but the trend is for
lighter snow late this morning into the afternoon. A general 1-3"
can be expected by sunrise this morning with another inch or two
through this afternoon.

Then heading into this evening, northern areas could still see some
light snow linger, but attention will mostly turn to any snow
associated with the upper low moving across Mexico and into west
Texas. The 850mb low from this system is progged to track across the
TX/OK/AR vicinity with our area in the north to northeasterly
low- level winds. This should keep most of our area dry after
midnight except for a band of snow extending from south central
to east central KS, mainly impacting areas southeast of the KS
Turnpike where up to one more inch of snow could accumulate,
perhaps 2 at most towards Anderson County. All snow should move
east of the area by midday Sunday. After all of this, forecast
totals remain at 2-4" in the advisory area along the KS/NE
border, while areas south have seen totals lowered a bit to
4-6". East central KS areas have the best chance at reaching the
higher end of that range with the last band of snow late
tonight into Sunday morning.

Outside of the snow, very cold air remains through Monday. The
Arctic sfc high nearby gives us wind chill values between -15 and
-20 this morning. Sunday afternoon could give us a short period
 with wind chills above zero, but not by much. A reinforcing
 shot of cold air then comes in for Monday morning to drop our
 wind chill values back down to -15 to -20. From there, we turn
 to northwest flow aloft through next week, though a return to
 southerly low-level winds Monday should at least help us get to
 the 20s for highs. Tuesday and Wednesday bring us to the low
 30s before another weak front knocks us back down to the 20s
 late week, all while looking to stay dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Vsby will probably bounce around between IFR and MVFR today with
snowfall varying in intensity through the day, but thinking IFR
is most likely to dominate. Conditions should improve later this
evening and especially overnight as snowfall slows down and
eventually comes to an end late in the period. Cigs will likely
remain at MVFR for a while after snow ends, lifting toward the
very end of this forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha