548
FXUS63 KTOP 111916
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small (<25%) chance for light precipitation late tonight.
  Greater chances for showers and storms remain on track for
  Sunday and Sunday night.

- Above to near normal temperatures through at early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

The upper ridge axis was building east into the central and northern
Plains today. One more round of modest isentropic lift aloft will
occur tonight with some mid and upper level moisture in place,
though moisture quality varies among the operational models. Most
guidance suggests the better lift will be in south-central Nebraska
but there is some signal across much of the local area as well. Went
ahead with small PoPs for much of the northern counties but could
see something more isolated area-wide. Any amounts look rather light
with limited instability and dry lower levels though individual
showers should more slowly.

Temperatures continue to look to trend up tonight into at least
Saturday with moderate south to southwest low-level flow dominating.
NBM temperature spreads are rather small through this time with
highs in the lower to middle 90s and little chance for fog in a
more mixed boundary layer and cloudier setup.

The upper trough to the west ejects northeast Saturday night into
Monday though it looks to be more impressive this far south compared
to previous guidance. Storm chances should be greatest Sunday into
Sunday night as the trough axis moves through though instability and
shear are not very impressive suggesting low severe weather
potential. Confidence beyond Tuesday continues to be low with
differences in handling of a Pacific Northwest trough coming east.
There could be some chance for precipitation with not as warm
temperatres likely (NBM chance for highs over 85 are less than
50% for Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue. A more well-mixed boundary layer
should bring minor daytime gusts to MHK today and all sites by
around 16Z Friday. The stronger mixing keeps diurnal BR from
forming tonight but brings small potential for minor LLWS mainly
at MHK from 04Z to 13Z, though too small for inclusion.
Precipitation chances remain low, though a high-based shower
can`t be ruled out overnight as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage