943
FXUS63 KTOP 030645
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
145 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms slowly move east across the area today.

- Below-normal temperatures continue through Monday.

- A warming trend commences Tuesday with the return of hot and
  humid conditions late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A shortwave embedded in the west-northwesterly mid-level flow has
generated showers and storms across central Kansas early this
morning. This activity resides within the axis of higher instability
that quickly diminishes across northeast Kansas. Showers and storms
will slowly progress east into the area through the morning, but are
expected to weaken as they encounter a less unstable airmass. Not
expecting any hazardous weather with these showers and storms
outside of some lightning, but slow storm motions could support
locally heavy rainfall. The shortwave lingers across the area
through the day, keeping chances for scattered showers through most
of the daytime hours. Cloudy skies will limit warming and keep highs
mainly in the 70s.

The wave departs this evening with subsidence behind the wave
keeping the area mostly dry during the overnight hours. There could
be some showers across central Kansas where the higher moisture and
instability will reside. Below-normal temperatures continue Monday
with highs in the low 80s before a mid-level ridge across the
southwestern CONUS builds northeast towards the Central Plains and
southerly low-level flow returns. A warming trend commences as a
result with highs in the mid 80s Tuesday climbing back into the 90s
Thursday through the end of the week. Humidity also returns with
dewpoints around 70 degrees, resulting in heat index values of 95-
105 degrees Thursday through Saturday. Energy rounding the ridge
could generate showers and storms at times with highest chances (15-
20%) currently coming Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions expected. Will need to monitor convection across
central Kansas as it approaches KMHK this morning. Expecting this
activity to weaken as it approaches, so have input VCSH for a
few hours. There could be some lightning around KMHK, but confidence
is too low for inclusion. Showers may make it as far east as
KTOP/KFOE Sunday afternoon, but dry conditions are most likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan