454
FXUS63 KTOP 242311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below average temperatures persist through the week.

- A few light rain showers today and tomorrow, mainly towards
central Kansas.

- Opportunity for more widespread rain later in the week,
  particularly Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The upper-level pattern is characterized by a trough to the
northeast and a high to the southwest, while the surface
pattern is largely dominated by surface high pressure building
in from the northern Plains. In between the all these features
is several weak embedded waves riding through the mean flow.
This is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
in the lee of the Rockies. With cool and dry air in place over
northeast Kansas, the bulk of the rain is expected to remain to
our west and south. A stronger wave may move through the central
Plains later tonight and we may see enough of a push
northeastward that portions of central Kansas could see some
rain.

Tuesday looks rather quiet in the wake of Monday`s departing
wave. By Wednesday evening, a surface trough is favored to
develop across the central Plains in response to a fast-moving
upper- level wave moving out of the northern Plains. Models have
slightly different ideas as to how fast and far south the wave
will swing through. There is a good signal for at least portions
of the area seeing some decent rainfall (0.5 inches or more),
but just how far northeast rainfall extends and how much rain we
end up receiving will depend on the how quickly the wave moves
through and how far south it tracks. At this time, half an inch
or more is favored along and south of I-70, with the highest
rainfall totals across southeast Kansas. Friday looks quiet
before another system potentially moves through next weekend.

Temperatures each day will be largely dependent on cloud cover
and rainfall. Areas that see rainfall and thick cloud cover may
struggle to reach 70 degrees, but areas that see plenty of sun
may make a run at 80. Overall, a cooler and wetter than average
for this time of the year pattern is favored to continue through
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Main aviation concern will be showers moving in from the west
overnight and through the early morning hours of Monday. TAFs
should remain VFR with ceilings staying above 4kft. Kept
precipitation mention as VCSH at this time as higher confidence
in widespread showers remain west and south of the terminals.
After showers move out Monday morning, mid level clouds should
hang on for much of the TAF before beginning to scatter out near
the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Griesemer