597
FXUS63 KTOP 020754
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
254 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost expected along north of I-70 this morning. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8 AM Saturday.

- Warmer air returns by Sunday and Monday with afternoon
temperatures returning to the 80s.

- Storms Monday will have the chance to be marginally strong to
  severe, but confidence is still low due to location and timing of
  the frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Another chilly night is underway as mostly clear skies and light
winds remain common with surface ridging building in from central
Nebraska. As temperatures continue to drop into the 30s by sunrise,
frost development is expected across areas north of I-70 with
temperatures falling in the 33-36 degree range. A Frost Advisory
remains in effect for aforementioned areas until 8 AM this morning.
By this afternoon, surface ridging continues to slide across the
area with low level winds returning back to the south/southwest.
This will set the stage for a warm-up come Sunday and into early
next week.

By Sunday, two separate upper level systems will move towards the
central US - one over Baja California and another pushing into the
northern Plains. A weak jetstreak ahead of the northern cyclone will
make its way into Nebraska by Sunday afternoon, helping to deepen a
surface cyclone as it pushes into western Kansas. Over eastern
Kansas, southerly flow should help to advect some modest moisture
into the region ahead of the advancing surface trough. Some isolated
storm chances may become possible across far eastern Kansas into
Missouri along the surface trough by peak heating hours, but
confidence is low in overall coverage with a strong EML still
present over much of the region. Better chances for storms will come
Monday afternoon/evening as the southwestern cyclone begins to eject
off the southern Rockies. The advancement of the cyclone and
increase of mid-level vorticity should again deepen a surface trough
across the region, possibly combining with the surface trough with
the northern cyclone. A frontal boundary will become a focal point
for storms Monday afternoon and evening that could return storms and
marginally severe weather back to the region. That said, confidence
is still low with timing/location of the front and best forcing with
the upper level cyclone. In addition, deterministic guidance keeps a
fairly stout EML across the region by Monday afternoon and evening
that may limit storm initiation. Will continue to monitor this
system over the coming days to pin down what areas will see best
chances for rain/storms.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, several embedded waves within
southwesterly flow will move across the central Plains as a digging
Canadian trough phases with the southwestern cyclone. Scattered rain
and storm chances will stay in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as
temperatures top out in the 50s and 60s. Luckily, the frontal
boundary Monday night should push well south of northeast KS and
will keep showers and storms elevated and non-severe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist over the TAF at all sites as surface
ridging dominates the region. Expect light northerly winds slowly
shifting towards the southwest by Saturday evening and mostly clear
skies.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer