506
FXUS63 KTOP 310917
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
317 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect the rain to continue through the morning commute
  across northeast and east central KS.

- The rain will end from west to east across the area through
  the mid and late morning hours.

- Look for a warning trend through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Early this morning an upper low was centered from southeast KS,
southwest into southwest OK. An upstream upper level ridge was
located across the western US, with a down stream upper ridge across
the east central US.

A surface low was located across north central MO, with a surface
trough axis extending southward across AR into southwest LA. A
surface cold front extended from southeast MN, southwest across IA
into northeast KS, then southwest to MHK, then southwest into
the TX PNHDL. temperatures were not much colder behind the front
with mid 30s extending northwest to I-80 across NE.

Today:

The upper low across southeast KS and OK will shift east-
northeast into western MO by 12Z FRI. The GFS and ECMWF show
frontogenetical forcing on the norther side of the upper low
center across the CWA. A TROWAL was noted wrapping around the
west side of the 850mb low across northwest MO. The steady light
rain will gradually move east across the CWA during the mid and
late morning hours. As the H5 low shifts northeast across MO,
the frontogenetical forcing will weaken and the light rain will
gradually diminish as it shifts east across east central KS
during the mid to late morning hours. One positive note will be
that the 850mb and surface temperatures will remain above
freezing, so the precipitation type will remain in the form of
rain before shifting east of the CWA by Noon Today. There will
be an additional quarter to half inch of rainfall through the
mid morning hours across northeast and portions of east central
KS. Lesser amount are expected southeast of I-35 and across the
northwest counties of the CWA.

As the surface cold front continues to move southeast across the
CWA, the winds will become northwesterly, without much
of a temperature drop. The northwest winds will gradually increase
visibilities above 4 miles. Attm, I will allow the fog advisory for
the southwest counties to expire at 3 AM.

Skies will begin to clear across north central KS after sunrise and
the clearing line will gradually push southeast across the CWA
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Highs Today
will reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Tonight through Sunday night:

The mid and upper level flow will become zonal across the Plans, as
the H5 trough across the mid MS River valley moves east across
the eastern US. A lee surface trough will develop across the
central and southern high plains causing winds to become
southerly across the southern and central Plains. Highs will
warm into the 50s on Saturday with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s on Sunday.

Monday through Friday:

A series of low amplitude H5 troughs will move east across the
northern Plains, this will cause a series of weak front to push
southward across the CWA. Northeast surface winds will cause highs
on Monday to cool back to the mid 40s along the NE border with
lower to mid 50s from I-70 southward. Tuesday will be a bit cooler
with highs in the upper 30s along the NE border to lower to mid
40s along and south of I-70.

A more amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific
northwest Tuesday night and shift eastward across the northern
Plains early Thursday.  Stronger low-level CAA will cause a stronger
front to move southward across the CWA on Thursday.  There may be
enough ascent on the southern fringe of the H5 trough for a few rain
or snow showers across the CWA on Thursday. Highs Thursday may only
reach the lower 30s along the NE border with highs in the lower
to mid 40s south of I-70.

The ECMWF model shows a A cold surface ridge building southward
across the central and southern Plains Friday into Saturday bringing
below normal temperatures. Highs on Friday will only reach into the
30s. Another H5 trough will move east across the northern and
central Plains Friday night into Saturday, which may cause some
scattered snow showers Friday night into Saturday. The GFS model is
not as amplified as the ECMWF and does not show the stronger low-
level CAA across the Plains. If the the GFS model were to verify
high temperatures would be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than the
ECMWF. The Canadian model forecast lower to mid 40s on Saturday. So,
there remains some uncertainty on how much colder air will
advect southward across the CWA at the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

LIFR stratus and IFR to LIFR visibilities are observed at
terminals and will persist until west northwest winds increase
abv 10 kts in the 11-14Z time frame. Light rain showers should
also persist around the surface low before exiting west to east
by 17Z Friday. Cigs in the late morning are expected to quickly
lift to VFR as northwest winds gust over 25 kts in the
afternoon. Fog may return in the evening, with some uncertainty
on extent and impacts at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Prieto